Hurricane Ophelia

[Allseasons-Si]

What i meant to say is that has there ever been a H=Hurricane symbol over the BI before,not that i know of.

[Jo Farrow]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Still a hurricane as it makes landfall over Ireland? What the....

It's not a true hurricane by then, the circle is white, so post-tropical. Will still be severe weather if this comes off, and it is still a few days away. Can't truly say Ireland will be hit by a hurricane, from this chart. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way 

[The Eagle]

2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

To 

To be fair, it's looking worse and worse for the whole of Ireland. I suspect that if you had the track line turned on for that map, it'd run straight up the middle of Ireland.

.. and it's moving further and further east with each update.

 

Not quite direct but getting closer!

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

To 

To be fair, it's looking worse and worse for the whole of Ireland. I suspect that if you had the track line turned on for that map, it's getting closer to running straight up the middle of Ireland.

.. and it's moving further and further east with each update.

Yes,the last one or two or so had it going to the west of Ireland,worrying times for them.

[The Eagle]

7 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

It's not a true hurricane by then, the circle is white, so post-tropical. Will still be severe weather if this comes off, and it is still a few days away. Can't truly say Ireland will be hit by a hurricane, from this chart. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way 

Absolutely but to the common person on the south coast telling the difference may be difficult on current projections!

Edited October 12, 2017 by The Eagle

[Allseasons-Si]

Just a thought,what info about Ophelia do we know if there is no recon flights?

 

[MattStoke]

8 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

It's not a true hurricane by then, the circle is white, so post-tropical. Will still be severe weather if this comes off, and it is still a few days away. Can't truly say Ireland will be hit by a hurricane, from this chart. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way 

I read the map wrong and got excited for a second, while wondering how the science of meteorology was somehow going to be broken 

[crimsone]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just a thought,what info about Ophelia do we know if there is no recon flights?

 

Satellite observations (water vapour, various infra red showing the cloud layers and organisation... and cloud top temperature... wind speeds can be measured and subsequently estimated, dvorak estimates including size/shape/organisation observations... basically, there are lots of tools. Nothing replaces the pinpoint accuracy of recon data, but there's still a lot that we can tell.)

Then there's ship reports, weather buoys, and all sorts of other such things.

[Jo Farrow]

7 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Absolutely but to the common person on the south coast telling the difference may be difficult on current projections!

 

agreed, if this does come off, it is just a technicality. 

[Jo Farrow]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I read the map wrong and got excited for a second, while wondering how the science of meteorology was somehow going to be broken 

maybe one day it will

[crimsone]

Just now, Jo Farrow said:

maybe one day it will

There are things we know we know, things we know we don't know, and excitingly, things we don't know that we don't know.

30 years before Ophelia reaching the UK, to the day, we discovered Sting Jets... and it was expensive, but awesome.

 

[Andy92]

[Ice Man 85]

Getting *really* nervous now.

[JK1]

Fascinating but Crazy  Any rough idea what winds be like Sussex coast? Obvs it will be nothing compared to what Ireland looks to be getting

Edited October 12, 2017 by JK1

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Getting *really* nervous now.

Well the HWRF may be right.

Edited October 12, 2017 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

35 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

 

It's looking worse and worse for South Ireland at the moment.

Well that blows some of the forecasts or, as I do not think they expected Ophelia to get to 100mph mean speeds. It's becoming a monster.

Any shift east brings the Irish Sea into play too - I think this update just about does that.

S+E+W Ireland, N Wales, N England, SW Scotland - watch out

[Ice Man 85]

Seriously though what my neck of the woods looking at based on current projections? 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Well the HRWF may be right.

On that chart Knocker(if it comes off)is of no concern for Ireland to be fair,it would be a relief if nothing else

i still think it is too early to pin this down,we await for tomorrows shenanigans

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

God this is fascinating stuff! 

[OPHELIA]

It's strange reading everyone's posts, some excited some worried, but yet when I speak with those in Taiwan or the Philippines about Typhoons it's like they take it for granted, not always truly worried. A category 3 typhoon hit Taiwan a few months back as I was talking to a friend, who's city was in the typhoon's path, they said....it will be fine. A category 4 Typhoon hit the philippines a few years back (I lose track of names haha), yes schools were closed but people that I know there still got up in the morning and went to work....oh it's awesome when they step outside and livestream it, the wind makes a noise like that of a thousand ghosts racing past you, incredible. 

Edited October 12, 2017 by OPHELIA

[JeffC]

42 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Thick southern white line over my location fog ?

Aye and mine! Note to self....don't go up Coniston Old Man on Monday!

[Man With Beard]

5 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Seriously though what my neck of the woods looking at based on current projections? 

Worst case scenario, for you maybe 80 mph given you are slightly inland - on the current ECM, the angles aren't quite right for you so 50-60mph ish. If you want the maximum winds, you need a track up the Irish Sea and then wait till winds turn westerly - low chances right now.

[Thunder Snow]

Is this a wind storm or heavy rain to :/

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Is this a wind storm or heavy rain to :/

Rain looks to be more on the western flank of the storm( on graphics I’ve seen). Wind impacts will be greater than rain is suspect, because it will zip through pretty quickly. But that depends on location and the track. 

Edited October 12, 2017 by karlos1983

[SP1986]

I think the novel thing will be that it will feel very different from your usual storm if you reside on the eastern side of it.. it will feel decidedly muggy and warm. So although not a Hurricane, it will still contain some remnant tropical air both around the core, and being wrapped around the broad eastern flank. Fascinating stuff!