Hurricane Ophelia

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

It will interesting too see how this plays out. The worst case scenario will be a good test of our stretched emergency services if does track the way ECM shows. Tomorrows runs will be very interesting .

What is absolutely key to impact will be the timing Ophelia makes landfall and the tracking she takes with regards to population density.  I.e. a rush hour landfall across S Ireland will have a much greater impact than one much earlier or much later than the rush hour.  It will be interesting to see if OFCL guidance issued by NHC is adjusted more to the East or whether it sticks with the more W track that a lot of ECMWF ensembles deviate toward.  I think also the HWRF (a tropical model) well respected too is well to the West in its forecast but I suppose question marks should be raised about the HWRF ability to resolve post tropical processes when it specialises in tropical genisis.  A averaged (mean) blend between the global model GFS and ECMWF would be the best bet right now.  Probably a 4 run multi-model operational GFS with ECM operational forming the mean basis and perhaps taking into account the EPS suite.  What do you think PIT, I still think it'll be slightly further West.

[pip22]

It is a windstorm by then. Close enough.

[Fiona Robertson]

"Mull of Kintyre, Ophelia rolls in from the sea

My desire is not to get blown away

Oh, Mull of Kintyre"

 

(Sung in a voice like a donkey being chainsawed)

[Mokidugway]

It sure looks the part 

[Man With Beard]

May not look impressive but it's probably on every UK extreme weather fanatic's bucket list to get a hurricane force advisory for our shores from the NHC, so I'm just going to milk this for all its worth

This is likely to increase as we near T0 if current forecasts hold.

[The PIT]

14 minutes ago, Thermohaline Conveyor said:

What is absolutely key to impact will be the timing Ophelia makes landfall and the tracking she takes with regards to population density.  I.e. a rush hour landfall across S Ireland will have a much greater impact than one much earlier or much later than the rush hour.  It will be interesting to see if OFCL guidance issued by NHC is adjusted more to the East or whether it sticks with the more W track that a lot of ECMWF ensembles deviate toward.  I think also the HWRF (a tropical model) well respected too is well to the West in its forecast but I suppose question marks should be raised about the HWRF ability to resolve post tropical processes when it specialises in tropical genisis.  A averaged (mean) blend between the global model GFS and ECMWF would be the best bet right now.  Probably a 4 run multi-model operational GFS with ECM operational forming the mean basis and perhaps taking into account the EPS suite.  What do you think PIT, I still think it'll be slightly further West.

I'll leave the forecasting to the experts.

I'm more worried about the possible impacts and our ability to cope with a widespread severe storm and whether our services will be good enough to get the information out in a timely manner if they need to.

[crimsone]

Can I be the first to say.... Poor little Vila Do Porto!

It's not often that Santa Maria sees a hurricane, to be fair.

Edited October 12, 2017 by crimsone

[Ice Man 85]

I am praying to god that the ECM is wrong.

[Met4Cast]

Yeah, ECM looks brutal for Ireland!

 

[Evening thunder]

10 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Fanatic being the operative word. I can't fathom how anyone could welcome something that could rob people of their homes and livelihoods.

Well I doubt it would be severe enough to destroy homes and hopefully livelihoods, and I think most 'fanatics' wouldn't want it to be that severe and no-one wants lives lost.. but that's an understandable view as long as you don't like cold and snow given it's adverse effects, Ice Man.

I like both snow/cold and some severe weather and you can't blame weather enthusiasts on a weather forum for finding these things interesting.

For my location it looks nothing more than a 'normal' windy day anyway, but then that's how 95%+ of storms that hit this country seem to go these days even if you'd often think otherwise watching the media and even weather forecasts at the time.

[karlos1983]

You have to take the emotion out of this. It’s the weather, and 99% of members on here love the extremes. Inevitably some damage may occur but that’s not why we want the storm. It’s the beauty of nature when it’s teeth are showing. 

[OPHELIA]

17 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I am praying to god that the ECM is wrong.

Weather (no pun intended) I hit or not it doesn't change anything, not the past present or future, the weather systems are changing, weather (again no pun intended) we like it or not, if this is due to human effects on the climate we did kinda ask for it really, this has been screaming to happen over the past decade, it has been predicted, but then again it is nature it does what it wants.

I do have pity on those who will be affected (yes I have a soul), but this is not the time yet, this is the time to learn and prepare, not just for now or the coming days but for the generations to come.

Edited October 12, 2017 by OPHELIA

[Man With Beard]

17 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Fanatic being the operative word. I can't fathom how anyone could welcome something that could rob people of their homes and livelihoods.

I don't want anyone to suffer - hopefully sensible precautions will be taken if the worst should happen. FWIW, the impacts don't look that different to the Feb 2014 storm, which was maybe a 1 in 10 year event. I don't think that one caused any drastic damage. But it wasn't on the NHC

[Paul]

Interesting to see how the various models are handling all this. The ECM has definitely wanted to take it east more than the GFS. Met Office model more in line with the GFS. 

This is from the model tracker in Extra - showing the last 8 (if available) runs from the GFS, ECM and Met Office Global Model for Monday at 1200.
https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=modeltracker;sess=

[Geordiesnow]

I think one thing to note that as it stands the storm is not going to be with us for all that long if it does reaches us so in that respect, you would imagine any damage will hopefully be more minimal but as a enthusiast, I do hope the ECM is right but being sure on what strength and its final positioning is still unclear imo, it could still end up to the West of Ireland and having less effect on all of us overall but its an interesting watch for sure.

[Matthew.]

https://www-express-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.express.co.uk/news/weather/865555/Hurricane-Ophelia-2017-UK-Ireland-England-Weather-Tropical-Storm-Hurricane-Center/amp?amp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQCCAE%3D

[The Eagle]

Update on Ophelia
12 October 2017

 

There has been some media coverage that hurricane Ophelia will impact Ireland to some degree at the start of next week. At this stage, there is strong evidence from the weather forecast models that its remnants will track close to or even over parts of Ireland, but at present, there are still a wide spread of possible outcomes. Our forecasters are treating the situation with caution and are in contact with our international colleagues, but given the lead time and the inherent uncertainties that come with the modelling of a tropical system it won’t be possible to quantify the exact timing, nor the strength or intensity of the wind and rain, in any great detail until later in the weekend. Ophelia won’t be a hurricane in meteorological terms when it reaches our part of the world as she will have moved over the cooler waters of the mid-Atlantic and undergone what is known as extra-tropical transition. So while there could be the threat of wind gusts reaching hurricane force or indeed heavy rainfall with this system, it means the traditional attributes of a hurricane – such as an eye or an eye-wall containing a core of hurricane force winds - are very unlikely to be present. Instead, it will likely engage and merge with a frontal zone in the Atlantic, morphing into a mid-latitude depression with tropical characteristics. Met Éireann forecasters will be keeping a close eye on the evolution of this storm over the coming days and warnings will be issued as confidence in the evolution allows.

 

http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=448

[OPHELIA]

Update on Ophelia
12 October 2017

 

There has been some media coverage that hurricane Ophelia will impact Ireland to some degree at the start of next week. At this stage, there is strong evidence from the weather forecast models that its remnants will track close to or even over parts of Ireland, but at present, there are still a wide spread of possible outcomes. Our forecasters are treating the situation with caution and are in contact with our international colleagues, but given the lead time and the inherent uncertainties that come with the modelling of a tropical system it won’t be possible to quantify the exact timing, nor the strength or intensity of the wind and rain, in any great detail until later in the weekend. Ophelia won’t be a hurricane in meteorological terms when it reaches our part of the world as she will have moved over the cooler waters of the mid-Atlantic and undergone what is known as extra-tropical transition. So while there could be the threat of wind gusts reaching hurricane force or indeed heavy rainfall with this system, it means the traditional attributes of a hurricane – such as an eye or an eye-wall containing a core of hurricane force winds - are very unlikely to be present. Instead, it will likely engage and merge with a frontal zone in the Atlantic, morphing into a mid-latitude depression with tropical characteristics. Met Éireann forecasters will be keeping a close eye on the evolution of this storm over the coming days and warnings will be issued as confidence in the evolution allows.

 

Met Eireann

[OPHELIA]

7 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Update on Ophelia
12 October 2017

 

There has been some media coverage that hurricane Ophelia will impact Ireland to some degree at the start of next week. At this stage, there is strong evidence from the weather forecast models that its remnants will track close to or even over parts of Ireland, but at present, there are still a wide spread of possible outcomes. Our forecasters are treating the situation with caution and are in contact with our international colleagues, but given the lead time and the inherent uncertainties that come with the modelling of a tropical system it won’t be possible to quantify the exact timing, nor the strength or intensity of the wind and rain, in any great detail until later in the weekend. Ophelia won’t be a hurricane in meteorological terms when it reaches our part of the world as she will have moved over the cooler waters of the mid-Atlantic and undergone what is known as extra-tropical transition. So while there could be the threat of wind gusts reaching hurricane force or indeed heavy rainfall with this system, it means the traditional attributes of a hurricane – such as an eye or an eye-wall containing a core of hurricane force winds - are very unlikely to be present. Instead, it will likely engage and merge with a frontal zone in the Atlantic, morphing into a mid-latitude depression with tropical characteristics. Met Éireann forecasters will be keeping a close eye on the evolution of this storm over the coming days and warnings will be issued as confidence in the evolution allows.

 

http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=448

Well someone's fast haha :P.

[LightningLover]

7 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Why doesn't that guy do the world a favour and go and jump off a bridge?

...It's not nathan rao? Now That is a "SHOCK".

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

...It's not nathan rao? Now That is a "SHOCK".

[Man With Beard]

Latest ECM ensembles are much more varied than earlier on. All sorts of possibilities. About 30% primarily affect Ireland with gusts between 90mph and 115mph gusts depending on the particular ensemble member. Another 30% odd see very strong winds through both S Ireland and the Irish Sea with a few close to 100mph in this region (mostly 80-90mph maxes). About 10% now track through the Channel, with a couple of runs giving 90 mph winds for Cornwall and 75-85mph further along the S Coast. And some miss to the west of Ireland completely - one of them bizarrely skirts around the west of Ireland and hits western Scotland with 110mph gusts. 

[matty40s]

2 hours ago, OPHELIA said:

I have insurance, just joined AXA yesterday .

Working for AXA , I would say 3rd party fire and theft is a bit of a get out. 

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, matty40s said:

Working for AXA , I would say 3rd party fire and theft is a bit of a get out. 

Ophelia has an AXA to grind 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Latest ECM ensembles are much more varied than earlier on. All sorts of possibilities. About 30% primarily affect Ireland with gusts between 90mph and 115mph gusts depending on the particular ensemble member. Another 30% odd see very strong winds through both S Ireland and the Irish Sea with a few close to 100mph in this region (mostly 80-90mph maxes). About 10% now track through the Channel, with a couple of runs giving 90 mph winds for Cornwall and 75-85mph further along the S Coast. And some miss to the west of Ireland completely - one of them bizarrely skirts around the west of Ireland and hits western Scotland with 110mph gusts. 

My God I'd love 110mph to hit here! Although I'd hate it at the same time...