Hurricane Ophelia

[The Eagle]

My sympathy to the people of Cork for your projected loss

[karlos1983]

@Man With Beard you could be correct sir 

[Allseasons-Si]

Top of the scale,s Ireland

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Top of the scale,s Ireland

Bringing parts of Wales the south west into the action

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Guidance issued a few days ago

[karlos1983]

From that to that in 24 hours 

looks odd 

[Stozzy]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Top of the scale,s Ireland

Boom  wish I could be down there

[weirpig]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

From that to that in 24 hours 

looks odd 

Not sure what track it went  THE remains of the low seem quite a bit north east  

[OPHELIA]

Don't forget to watch the Swells , info at magicseaweed.com

Edited October 12, 2017 by OPHELIA

[karlos1983]

Just now, weirpig said:

Not sure what track it went  THE remains of the low seem quite a bit north east  

Yeah it’s just heading into Norway, but just looks odd to me. But must be plausible 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

From that to that in 24 hours 

looks odd 

 

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Not sure what track it went  THE remains of the low seem quite a bit north east  

It's what happens in between what is what i wan't to know,shame the ECM timeframes are like this

[karlos1983]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

 

It's what happens in between what is what i wan't to know,shame the ECM timeframes are like this

Very true, we will probably never know when it shifts West In the next run lol 

[The PIT]

South west Ireland is toast on ECM run. Looks like it may track across the borders. Pity ecm doesn't do shorter time periods.

[Fiona Robertson]

Is it just me or does it track from SW Ireland to just off Dumfries and Galloway and then disappear for 2 frames, only to then reappear between northern Scotland and Norway?

[knocker]

The ecm at 18 Monday has it central southern Ireland (near the coast) 978mb and at 00 986mb in the north Irish Sea. Strongest winds in the southern quadrant and in the Irish Sea

Edited October 12, 2017 by knocker

[radiohead]

11 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not sure what track it went  THE remains of the low seem quite a bit north east  

Across Ireland and Scotland.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm 18 has central southern Ireland 978mb and at 00 986mb in the north Irish Sea.

What's the ECM 18 Knocker

are you refering to ens?

Edit,i see you have edited

Edited October 12, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

So ECMWF tracks Ophelia across Dublin and then ENE into Southern Scotland with severe wind gusts of 60-70mph possible for Cumbria on the latest model run.  One thing to note also is that ECM12Z fills Ophelia out quite rapidly with the example being she is projected to have a central pressure of 974hpa just W of Waterford in the S of Ireland at around 18:00 on 16th October then 9 hours later at 03:00 on 17th October pressure increases to 990hpa (16hpa +/9hour) 1.7hpa +/ph.  Seems the Euro is struggling to handle the tropical nature of Ophelia's interaction with terrain.  Incidentally the track is S Ireland, Dublin, Southern Scotland and out into the N Sea with rapid cyclolysis.  I still think this solution is too far East but we'll see.  Worst affected areas for wind gusts on this run would be a line from Cork, Waterford to Dublin extending across the Irish Sea into Cumbria. 60-80mph gusts, mainly lower end of this range inland away from mountainous terrain.

Edited October 12, 2017 by Thermohaline Conveyor

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

What's the ECM 18 Knocker

are you refering to ens?

I've amended it. The det. run at 1800 on Monday

[Man With Beard]

So this ECM take on Ophelia sees it strong though not the strongest we have seen - it first hits S Ireland at 90mph gusts:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101212/great-britain/gusts-3h-mph/20171016-1800z.html

then tracks through Ireland and over Scotland, with gusts more like 70-80mph through the Irish Sea, perhaps over 90 on the tip of Anglesea (am I reading that right)?

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101212/great-britain/gusts-3h-mph/20171017-0000z.html

 

[The PIT]

It will interesting too see how this plays out. The worst case scenario will be a good test of our stretched emergency services if does track the way ECM shows. Tomorrows runs will be very interesting .

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

So this ECM take on Ophelia sees it strong though not the strongest we have seen - it first hits S Ireland at 90mph gusts:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101212/great-britain/gusts-3h-mph/20171016-1800z.html

then tracks through Ireland and over Scotland, with gusts more like 70-80mph through the Irish Sea, perhaps over 90 on the tip of Anglesea (am I reading that right)?

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101212/great-britain/gusts-3h-mph/20171017-0000z.html

 

Yep 95 mph north west Wales  even 50-60 centre of England 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

I don't like this run at all, further away than it was before from my part...

[Jo Farrow]

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way 

[Fiona Robertson]

So the 120 has it just off the tip of the Mull of Kintyre... and then is disappears... Clydebank and the Glasgow area could get hammered.