Hurricane Ophelia

[Frosty hollows]

Met Eireann don't seem worried atm. They have a warning out for coastal gales today tho.

[karyo]

34 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Latest ECM Ensembles keeping it mostly to the West of Ireland too - I think chances are, we'll see it correct Westwards. With high pressure to our East, the models to like to underestimate the strength. We see this in winter all the time with Atlantic breakdowns.

Ireland is going to be the place to be for this one, I think

If the westward shifts continue it will probably be just the Atlantic.

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

If the westward shifts continue it will probably be just the Atlantic.

As the Storm chasers call it "A fish storm" not Michael Fish either 

Our old Foe "Euro High" just kills all our fun!   The sooner it can do one the better! Don't want to be seeing that come months end! 

Edited October 12, 2017 by karlos1983

[Frosty hollows]

3 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

Express is surpassing itself ( probably annoyed at its Boy who cried wolf situation) 

"Ophelia is barrelling towards the UK with winds of up to 5mph 

The hurricane is forecasted to travel northeast across England and northern Ireland towards Scotland by 8am on Monday.

It is currently barrelling east across the Atlantic Ocean... travelling at 3mph." Nicole Stinson

Which superlative will they use Sunday into Monday when it does get a move on northwards? 5mph and 3mph, that line is repeated twice #quality

Still waiting for this barbeque summer they 'predicted' earlier in the year 

[karyo]

19 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

As the Storm chasers call it "A fish storm" not Michael Fish either 

Our old Foe "Euro High" just kills all our fun!   The sooner it can do one the better! Don't want to be seeing that come months end! 

It makes me sick to be honest!

[Jo Farrow]

[crimsone]

33 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

This whole "We've decided to name storms to increase public awareness and reduce confusion" business was a great idea in theory... but someone dropped the ball when they failed to realise that the British tabloid press existed.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

The Met Office have issued a yellow warning for wind for Western parts of the UK.

I find that really interesting considering it's forecast to stay pretty much out in the Atlantic. They mention the chance of 80mph gusts, so do they know something we don't?? 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/warnings/uk

[Geordiesnow]

16 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

The Met Office have issued a yellow warning for wind for Western parts of the UK.

I find that really interesting considering it's forecast to stay pretty much out in the Atlantic. They mention the chance of 80mph gusts, so do they know something we don't?? 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/warnings/uk

Every chance the system could be further Eastwards like the ECM is showing and in these situations with hurricanes, even the American prefers the ECM model over the GFS.

Still too early though to be sure where it will end up but it looks like Northern Ireland and Western parts of Scotland are at risk with severe gales but the strength by the time it gets close to our shores could well change by then.

[Mokidugway]

Still on course 

WTNT42 KNHC 120840
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
500 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

Satellite imagery indicates that Ophelia continues to gradually
become better organized, with the hurricane maintaining a
well-defined eye and the cloud tops in the eyewall gradually
cooling.  The various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range between 75-90 kt, and based on the previous trend of
the intensity being near the lower end of the estimates, the initial
intensity is kept at a possibly conservative 75 kt.

The initial motion is 040/3.  Ophelia is currently in an area of
light steering currents to the south of the mid-latitude
westerlies.  The large-scale models forecast a deep-layer trough to
amplify over the central and northeastern Atlantic during the
forecast period, which should steer Ophelia northeastward or
east-northeastward at an increasing forward speed for the next few
days.  The track guidance has changed little since the last
advisory, and the new forecast track, which leans toward the HFIP
Corrected Consensus and the Florida State Superensemble, is an
update of the previous forecast.

Ophelia is forecast to remain in a light to moderate shear
environment and over marginal sea surface temperatures for the next
24-36 h, and the intensity forecast shows some strengthening during
this time in agreement with the guidance.  After that, the hurricane
is expected to move over cooler water.  As that happens, though,
interaction with the above-mentioned westerly trough should help
Ophelia keep its intensity.  Extratropical transition should begin
by 72 h, with Ophelia likely to become a hurricane-force baroclinic
low by 96 h.  The guidance is in good agreement that Ophelia should
affect Ireland, northern Ireland and Great Britain between 96-120 h
as a powerful extratropical low.

Although the track guidance keeps the center offshore of the
Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the
eastern Azores on Thursday because of the forecasted increase in
wind radii in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 30.3N  35.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 30.7N  35.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 31.3N  34.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 32.2N  32.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 33.7N  28.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 38.5N  20.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 49.0N  13.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  17/0600Z 59.0N   7.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Sussex Jules]

Met Eireann have awoken from their slumber

http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

Was reading the social media this morning and all that was saying was that Monday was going to be windy, nothing like the Daily Express headlines.

I'm about 45 mins from Shannon airport with good access to M18 if anyone wants board and lodging!

[Allseasons-Si]

Although the general consensus of track they predict it to go,we are still 4-5 days away from it being nailed on in my view.

[Man With Beard]

A quick scan through the ECM ensembles shows a more easterly route is still possible. One crazy member (number 3) sends it right up the Irish Sea with gusts over 110 mph near the Isle of Man, and gusts over 90mph on both the east coast of Ireland and western side of Wales/N England/S Scotland.

[toggerob]

[knocker]

 

[karlos1983]

can get a return flight to cork for £80......... 

TEMPTED!!!

 

[Man With Beard]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

can get a return flight to cork for £80......... 

TEMPTED!!!

 

hold fire! IMO hot spots could be anywhere on the S Ireland coast, or pembrokeshire or anglesea yet - or on a boat of course (not recommended)!

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

hold fire! IMO hot spots could be anywhere on the S Ireland coast, or pembrokeshire or anglesea yet - or on a boat of course (not recommended)!

LOL MWB , I think Ireland is the safest bet, probably on the south west coast (Near Portmagee is my bet!). I certainly wouldn't want to be on a boat come Monday off the Irish coast 

 

make that £57 

 

If it misses, then I'll just have to find a pub and get drunk  win win

Edited October 12, 2017 by karlos1983

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

LOL MWB , I think Ireland is the safest bet, probably on the south west coast (Near Portmagee is my bet!). I certainly wouldn't want to be on a boat come Monday off the Irish coast 

 

make that £57 

"Ryanair"

[karlos1983]

Just now, Nick L said:

"Ryanair"

Good point, I probably haven't though this through Nick  LOL

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'd recommend getting out to Cape Clear island (off the south coast of Cork) the day before by boat. Did it February 2 years ago before a biggish Atlantic storm and got some great photos. I imagine the shots possible from Ophelia would be incredible!

  

Edited October 12, 2017 by BornFromTheVoid

[toggerob]

FlyBe has 2 seats left to Knock from MAN at £85, flying out afternoon Sunday and returning back on the Tuesday. BA and AerLingus costing £200 further southwards towards Shannon/Cork. Otherwise the only other cheapest way of getting there is carpooling, sharing the ferry/fuel cost from Holyhead.

Edited October 12, 2017 by SNOW_JOKE

[Methuselah]

For all those at the Daily Express: 

 

[Fiona Robertson]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Good point, I probably haven't though this through Nick  LOL

Oh for goodness sake!!! You know you wanna go, you know the cost is low, you'll have a brilliant time and you'll come back with amazing video! Just go!! Why don't the whole bunch of you go? Someone must have a big tent. Um... maybe a tent isn't a good idea, they magically transmogrify into kites in high winds. Anyway, think of the craik, think of the Guinness, think of the party...

 

[toggerob]

Just now, Fiona Robertson said:

Oh for goodness sake!!! You know you wanna go, you know the cost is low, you'll have a brilliant time and you'll come back with amazing video! Just go!! Why don't the whole bunch of you go? Someone must have a big tent. Um... maybe a tent isn't a good idea, they magically transmogrify into kites in high winds. Anyway, think of the craik, think of the Guinness, think of the party...

 

There's always the option of staying over at the airport Terminal, not quite 5-star but at least there's shelter, toilets, and food.