Where have the long fetch northerlies gone?

[James1979]

On 10/10/2017 at 19:45, Sunny76 said:

The autumn of 87 was the start of it. The great storm in October, was one of the first signs of a shifting climate. 

Surely then we should look to the great storm of 1703 on that basis. Things have definitely changed and in all season imo but I’m not sure we can pinpoint 1 storm as a starting point. 

[sundog]

10 minutes ago, James1979 said:

Surely then we should look to the great storm of 1703 on that basis. Things have definitely changed and in all season imo but I’m not sure we can pinpoint 1 storm as a starting point. 

I always think of the winter of 87/88 as the end of our old climate and the start of our new one. It's been mostly downhill ever since. With our winters. Perhaps that Oct 87 storm was among the first signs.

Edited October 20, 2017 by sundog

[daz_4]

It is hard enough to get winter to central Europe nowadays so I can imagine how it must be for UK. I can't wait for another winter where Greece is a better place to live for us snow lowers 

[Sunny76]

On 20/10/2017 at 08:59, sundog said:

I always think of the winter of 87/88 as the end of our old climate and the start of our new one. It's been mostly downhill ever since. With our winters. Perhaps that Oct 87 storm was among the first signs.

I was 11 at the time. My family noticed how mild the Christmas weather was that year. I recall it being a very mild day, even warmish with blue skies. 

Or maybe that was another Christmas. Winters prior to late 87 were more seasonal.

[iapennell]

On 20/10/2017 at 08:59, sundog said:

I always think of the winter of 87/88 as the end of our old climate and the start of our new one. It's been mostly downhill ever since. With our winters. Perhaps that Oct 87 storm was among the first signs.

I wonder if another major climatic transition hasn't occurred: Since 2008 but,  in particular since 2013, our Autumns are no longer seasonal.  Long spells with south or south-west winds have come to dominate our Octobers to an extent they never used to. No northerlies (let alone those with a fetch to north of the Arctic Circle) ever seem to affect our Octobers when they once did!

Consequently, we no longer get the crisp frosty spells that were guaranteed to occur at least once in Octobers of the past! In recent autumns there has been a trend towards very warm southerly winds during the last ten days of the month - in particular the run-up to Halloween!! 

[lassie23]

13 minutes ago, iapennell said:

I wonder if another major climatic transition hasn't occurred: Since 2008 but,  in particular since 2013, our Autumns are no longer seasonal.  Long spells with south or south-west winds have come to dominate our Octobers to an extent they never used to. No northerlies (let alone those with a fetch to north of the Arctic Circle) ever seem to affect our Octobers when they once did!

Consequently, we no longer get the crisp frosty spells that were guaranteed to occur at least once in Octobers of the past! In recent autumns there has been a trend towards very warm southerly winds during the last ten days of the month - in particular the run-up to Halloween!! 

Which is about to repeat itself yet again.

[booferking]

28 minutes ago, iapennell said:

I wonder if another major climatic transition hasn't occurred: Since 2008 but,  in particular since 2013, our Autumns are no longer seasonal.  Long spells with south or south-west winds have come to dominate our Octobers to an extent they never used to. No northerlies (let alone those with a fetch to north of the Arctic Circle) ever seem to affect our Octobers when they once did!

Consequently, we no longer get the crisp frosty spells that were guaranteed to occur at least once in Octobers of the past! In recent autumns there has been a trend towards very warm southerly winds during the last ten days of the month - in particular the run-up to Halloween!! 

Last year October was quite a blocked October pretty dry and sunny for large parts, We just couldn't get the high pressure in a favorable position to produce a Northerly never mind a long drawn Northerly.

Maybe if we keep complaining  the weather gods will give in and give us this for halloween 2017.

[Longtimelurker]

On 10/9/2017 at 15:57, phil nw. said:

Any Northerly that we may get in Winter now will it seems have less bite to them than years ago.The warmer Arctic and the southern extent of the main Icecap in early Spring on our side of the Pole means a longer than ever track over open sea.

I can recall in the 60's a number of really cold Northerlies especially around Feb/March when the southern limit of the Ice touched the North coast of Iceland at that time.

Look at this chart from Feb 69 as one notable example 

Wrt 2010 the real deep feed of cold was more from the north east(polar continental air mass)-(image 1 below) rather than a true maritime Arctic feed.

The wind did swing around to a somewhat less cold northerly later on(image 2) but by that time the deep surface cold was well established.

I think these days our best chance of seeing our lowest Winter temperatures is from the north east or east,basically continental air masses from Northern Russia/Siberia, often via Scandinavia, along the lines of that exceptional 2010 outbreak,anything else becomes modified more easily these days it seems.

Didn't the "bad" Northerly occur around the 18th of December 2010. Any chart for it? I'm intrigued. 

[SteveB]

On 20/10/2017 at 08:59, sundog said:

I always think of the winter of 87/88 as the end of our old climate and the start of our new one. It's been mostly downhill ever since. With our winters. Perhaps that Oct 87 storm was among the first signs.

I think the storm of 87 is a good marker when looking at our climate and how it's changed. I remember the winters of the late 70's and early 80's. After that the frequency of cold/snow events (certainly down South) started to diminish culminating in the very cold Feb 86. After that came the storm of 87 & basically we had a very poor 20+ years of very little in the way of proper snow events until 2009/10 when the memorable Dec cold spell occurred. 

One other point, never mind where the long fetch Northerlies have gone, it's been 30+ years since we've had a proper frontal snow event with a low coming up from the South West & bumping into proper entrenched cold are & dumping copious amounts of snow on the South West, Wales & the Midlands.

Things have certainly changed & it's harder to get any kind of snow event in the UK anymore, and I certainly think you can pinpoint that change to the late 80's

Edited October 24, 2017 by SteveB

[phil nw.]

1 hour ago, Longtimelurker said:

Didn't the "bad" Northerly occur around the 18th of December 2010. Any chart for it? I'm intrigued. 

We can see from the archives the progression of that exceptional event

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=12&day=16&year=2010&map=4&type=ncep

The polar vortex was simply shredded at that time and a chunk of it came this way prolonging the cold and snow.

 

Edited October 24, 2017 by phil nw.

[beng]

On 10/20/2017 at 08:59, sundog said:

I always think of the winter of 87/88 as the end of our old climate and the start of our new one. It's been mostly downhill ever since. With our winters. Perhaps that Oct 87 storm was among the first signs.

It was the late 1980s when the AMO began to shift into its warm phase (I'm sure the run of warmer winters afterwards is no coincidence) - I think it's beginning to shift back into the cold phase right now, so perhaps not too much longer to wait for some better winters + we have the solar minimum coming. Colder winters tend to occur just after minimum (obvious exceptions aside) - perhaps because the ocean surface anomaly patterns (resulting from zonality over the previous winter seasons) initially fight the atmospheric pattern (more favoured to blocking during the minimum).

I have a theory (never had time to do the research to validate though) that proper easterly outbreaks are much less likely to get as far as the UK during the the warm AMO - partly because of the warmer N Sea, which increases the chances that shortwaves form and prevent the real cold from arriving, especially down here. Another theory is that when the pattern shifts into the cold AMO phase again, it will coincide with a notably cold W European winter during the switch; that should at least get tested in the next decade.

 

 

Edited October 24, 2017 by beng

[Snowy L]

On 09/10/2017 at 08:10, mountain shadow said:

18th December 2010 sticks in my mind. 

Clear blue skies interrupted by huge snow showers. 

Marvellous stuff.

Definitely one of the most memorable weather events. Looking at the archives Im sure it was a lobe of the vortex dive-bombing into the UK

 

[Lettucing Gutted]

On ‎20‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 08:59, sundog said:

I always think of the winter of 87/88 as the end of our old climate and the start of our new one. It's been mostly downhill ever since. With our winters. Perhaps that Oct 87 storm was among the first signs.

As terrible as the 1703 storm disaster was, it was an isolated event.  Atlantic Storms of all degrees of severity were otherwise very rare in The Little Ice Age.  Other monster storms in the LIA such as the Spanish Armada Of 1588 disaster, seemed to do their worst at sea rather then affect most of the UK as often happens now.  In contrast, the Storm Of '87 was soon followed by more monster storms.  Just to name a few of the most infamous, the Burns Day Storm in 1990, the Christmas storms in 1997, 1998 and 1999, the storm of January 1993, the storm of January 2007 and all the named storms in autumn 2013 and 2015 and 2017 and winters 2013/2014, 2014/2015, and 2015/2016 and spring 2016.  Our climate has indeed become more stormy as well as very mild after the summer of '87.

Edited October 24, 2017 by Lettucing Gutted

[cheeky_monkey]

On 10/20/2017 at 01:59, sundog said:

I always think of the winter of 87/88 as the end of our old climate and the start of our new one. It's been mostly downhill ever since. With our winters. Perhaps that Oct 87 storm was among the first signs.

you could also argue the very cold winter of 1939/40 ushered in a colder period that lasted until the very mild winter of 87/88..since then the weather has flipped to a much milder regime.

[sundog]

38 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

you could also argue the very cold winter of 1939/40 ushered in a colder period that lasted until the very mild winter of 87/88..since then the weather has flipped to a much milder regime.

Yes it could be said that that winter was the start of a colder period after the many mild winters of the century up to that point,though i doubt those mostly mild winters then were as mild overall as the last 30 yrs. 

I suppose thats the thing ,were the winters from about 1900-1940 overall similar to the last 30 yrs ? I would say they were still overall cooler.

Edited October 25, 2017 by sundog

[Relativistic]

39 minutes ago, sundog said:

Yes it could be said that that winter was the start of a colder period after the many mild winters of the century up to that point,though i doubt those mostly mild winters then were as mild overall as the last 30 yrs. 

I suppose thats the thing ,were the winters from about 1900-1940 overall similar to the last 30 yrs ? I would say they were still overall cooler.

You'd be surprised. Earlier this year I made the graph below (I'm not sure what the original reason was) showing the 30-year rolling mean for the January CET. I thought it was of great interest and so decided to keep it, and I'm glad I did. Things really were very mild in the early 1900s.

(Each point on the graph represents the 30-year rolling average starting that year.)

 

[Lettucing Gutted]

On ‎22‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 12:23, iapennell said:

I wonder if another major climatic transition hasn't occurred: Since 2008 but,  in particular since 2013, our Autumns are no longer seasonal.  Long spells with south or south-west winds have come to dominate our Octobers to an extent they never used to. No northerlies (let alone those with a fetch to north of the Arctic Circle) ever seem to affect our Octobers when they once did!

Consequently, we no longer get the crisp frosty spells that were guaranteed to occur at least once in Octobers of the past! In recent autumns there has been a trend towards very warm southerly winds during the last ten days of the month - in particular the run-up to Halloween!! 

Myself and Northeasterly Blast believe that the UK climate has warmed in stages.  Stage 1 began with the very stormy October 1987 which cumulated with the "Hurricane" and this whole initial period ended with the cold January 1997.  During this initial period there was a sudden uptick in extremes such as storms, floods, droughts and heatwaves and other exceptional mild spells.  Already in tis period mild years and mild or even very mild seasons began to dominate, however occasional cold or even very cold seasons still occurred whilst the occasional cold year still occurred.  Sub 10C still rivalled double figure years for their occurrence.  Stage 2 began with the very mild February 1997 and ended with the unexceptionally cold March 2006.  During this period any remotely cold seasons or years were non-existent whilst even slightly below average months became ever rarer.  Pitiful cold spells via short-lived topplers, easterlies or inversion cold were still common though.  Very mild or mild seasons were already becoming the new norm with years almost always in double figures apart from 2001.  Stage 3 began with April 2006 and ended with June 2007.  During this period even pitiful cold spells were very rare, whilst even remotely cold months were non-existent.  Every season and nearly every month was near-record breaking or even record breaking.  The 12 months from May 2006 to April 2007 inclusive averaged way above 11C.

The cold July 2007 to cool June 2013 period saw something of a return to at least Stafe 1 conditions were very mild months, easons and even years were still comoon.  Howwver these were offset by much more potent cold spells in all seasons.  Cold months, seasons and years made an unexpected return with DECember 2010 and March 2013 near record breakingly cold.  Alas, starting with the very hot July 2013, I believe we have entered Stage 4 Uk warming.  This period has seen even pitiful cold spells via topplers, shortlived easeerlies become aamost non-existant.  Cold seaons and years are once again noon-existant.  Even remotely cool months are very hard to ahive in any year with the coold anaomlies of August 2017 and Septembe 2017 being very feeble.  This period has seen very mild seaons bemore the norm with a record breaking mild Demcber 2015 and the warmest year on record, 2014, occurring only 3 years after 2011 which occurred only 5 years aftee 2006.  Monster stroms have become the norm whislst even sub-10C years aree non-existent.

Edited October 26, 2017 by Lettucing Gutted

[Evening thunder]

On 24/10/2017 at 21:56, Lettucing Gutted said:

As terrible as the 1703 storm disaster was, it was an isolated event.  Atlantic Storms of all degrees of severity were otherwise very rare in The Little Ice Age.  Other monster storms in the LIA such as the Spanish Armada Of 1588 disaster, seemed to do their worst at sea rather then affect most of the UK as often happens now.  In contrast, the Storm Of '87 was soon followed by more monster storms.  Just to name a few, the Burns Day Storm in 1990, the Christmas storms in 1997, 1998 and 1999, the storm of January 1993, the storm of January 2007 and all the named storms in autumn 2013 and 2015 and 2017 and winters 2013/2014, 2014/2015, and 2015/2016 and spring 2016.  Our climate has indeed become more stormy as well as very mild after the summer of '87.

I'm not sure there. What I've seen (including at university) is that in general, the LIA was more stormy as well as cooler. Though 'storminess' has been variable over time.

Many of those examples in recent years weren't that severe too (Brian nothing unusual, I only remember 'Katie' in Spring 2016 which was nothing unusual, I don't remember 2014/15 (maybe further north had more). But then it's seemed very hard to actually get a 'proper' storm down here in the last decade as they always seem to go north and just give us 'windy' weather (which of course means further north has got hit).

Anyway, I wish we could say 'Where have the Eurohighs gone?'

[Sunny76]

Even with the post 1987 mild phase, the country had another cold snowy event in Feb 1991, which lasted for quite a few days. It was very cold.

Edited October 26, 2017 by Sunny76
Needed to delete one word

[cheese]

On 25/10/2017 at 17:51, Relativistic said:

You'd be surprised. Earlier this year I made the graph below (I'm not sure what the original reason was) showing the 30-year rolling mean for the January CET. I thought it was of great interest and so decided to keep it, and I'm glad I did. Things really were very mild in the early 1900s.

(Each point on the graph represents the 30-year rolling average starting that year.)

 

I may be wrong but wasn't the 1961-1990 period quite a cold one? I know that in Scandinavia it was colder than any other climatic period of the 20th century. 

Edited October 26, 2017 by cheese

[Relativistic]

13 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

Myself and Northeasterly Blast believe that the UK climate has warmed in stages.  Stage 1 began with the very stormy October 1987 which cumulated with the "Hurricane" and this whole initial period ended with the cold January 1997.  During this initial period there was a sudden uptick in extremes such as storms, floods, droughts and heatwaves and other exceptional mild spells.  Already in tis period mild years and mild or even very mild seasons began to dominate, however occasional cold or even very cold seasons still occurred whilst the occasional cold year still occurred.  Sub 10C still rivalled double figure years for their occurrence.  Stage 2 began with the very mild February 1997 and ended with the unexceptionally cold March 2006.  During this period any remotely cold seasons or years were non-existent whilst even slightly below average months became ever rarer.  Pitiful cold spells via short-lived topplers, easterlies or inversion cold were still common though.  Very mild or mild seasons were already becoming the new norm with years almost always in double figures apart from 2001.  Stage 3 began with April 2006 and ended with June 2007.  During this period even pitiful cold spells were very rare, whilst even remotely cold months were non-existent.  Every season and nearly every month was near-record breaking or even record breaking.  The 12 months from May 2006 to April 2007 inclusive averaged way above 11C.

The cold July 2007 to cool June 2013 period saw something of a return to at least Stafe 1 conditions were very mild months, easons and even years were still comoon.  Howwver these were offset by much more potent cold spells in all seasons.  Cold months, seasons and years made an unexpected return with DECember 2010 and March 2013 near record breakingly cold.  Alas, starting with the very hot July 2013, I believe we have entered Stage 4 Uk warming.  This period has seen even pitiful cold spells via topplers, shortlived easeerlies become aamost non-existant.  Cold seaons and years are once again noon-existant.  Even remotely cool months are very hard to ahive in any year with the coold anaomlies of August 2017 and Septembe 2017 being very feeble.  This period has seen very mild seaons bemore the norm with a record breaking mild Demcber 2015 and the warmest year on record, 2014, occurring only 3 years after 2011 which occurred only 5 years aftee 2006.  Monster stroms have become the norm whislst even sub-10C years aree non-existent.

The period November 2014 to October 2015 averaged 9.8C, which coincided quite nicely with rapidly declining numbers of sunspots. Then the very persistent, mild weather kicked in, around five months after Antarctic sea ice area/extent fell from record highs in May to trundling well below average (with global sea ice falling off a cliff). Then the monster Nino occurred, whose effects in the atmosphere may still be lingering. Whether all of the above is related to the UK's recent climatic state is up for debate, but events seem to fit somewhat. I wonder if "phase 4" actually started in late 2015, with 2014 being a blip (late 2013 was more of a mixed bag than 2014 was) towards the end of "phase 3"? Of course, it could all be coincidence.

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

Even with the post 1987 mild phase, the country had another cold snowy event in Feb 1991, which lasted for quite a few days. It was very cold.

Some very chilly Autumn weather during 1992 and 1993, and an exceptionally cold May in 1996.

1 hour ago, cheese said:

I may be wrong but wasn't the 1961-1990 period quite a cold one? I know that in Scandinavia it was colder than any other climatic period of the 20th century. 

Year-round it was certainly cooler than the 40-year period preceding it. For January in particular, the the minimum 30-year average for the 20th century was that commencing 1939 (3.1C) (there were an abundance of cold Januaries in the 40s and 50s), which was actually the lowest since 1830-59. The 1961-90 January average was less cold (3.8C). But yes, if you're referring to the general state of affairs in the 1961-90 period then you're not wrong.

Edited October 26, 2017 by Relativistic

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Even with the post 1987 mild phase, the country had another cold snowy event in Feb 1991, which lasted for quite a few days. It was very cold.

well 90's were very snowy here, upto about '98, then winters changed

[NeilN]

Perhaps we may be in the start of a new phase that began in August of a cool period? Granted October has been mild, but something tells me the four year mild winter saga is over.

[Relativistic]

4 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Even with the post 1987 mild phase, the country had another cold snowy event in Feb 1991, which lasted for quite a few days. It was very cold.

Forgot to mention in my last reply (and now can't edit it) but many people forget that the UK's joint coldest ever temperature (-27.2C) occurred during the winter season of 1995/96.

Edited October 26, 2017 by Relativistic