Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

[Snowy Hibbo]

On 15/10/2017 at 17:22, knocker said:

Have I just twigged who the Snowy Hibbo is?

 

Haha... yeah that's me. Hope you like my tweets . I have heard great things about this forum, so I decided to join and lurk around.

Seems to be a shift in the long range to a potential -NAO in Early November. My special GEFS product is offline, so I can't post the NAO. Hopefully that sticks into winter.

Anyway here's the POAMA DJF MSLP forecast for the European region. Looks +NAO like. Just don't tell the BOM.....

 

Edited October 18, 2017 by Snowy Hibbo
adding detail

[knocker]

11 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

Haha... yeah that's me. Hope you like my tweets . I have heard great things about this forum, so I decided to join and lurk around.

Seems to be a shift in the long range to a potential -NAO in Early November. My special GEFS product is offline, so I can't post the NAO. Hopefully that sticks into winter.

Anyway here's the POAMA DJF MSLP forecast for the European region. Looks +NAO like. Just don't tell the BOM.....

 

[Summer Sun]

AccuWeather winter forecast for the UK and Europe

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-uk-to-germany-on-alert-for-wind-storms-rain-to-ease-drought-wildfires-in-spain-and-portugal/70003011

[sundog]

29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

AccuWeather winter forecast for the UK and Europe

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-uk-to-germany-on-alert-for-wind-storms-rain-to-ease-drought-wildfires-in-spain-and-portugal/70003011

Certainly another winter for the bin if accweather is anywhere near accurate. 

I did mention before - winter 2013/14 -very stormy,2014/15- lack of storms,2015/2016- stormy,2016/2017 lack of storms,2017/2018- storms to return?

[Weather-history]

36 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

AccuWeather winter forecast for the UK and Europe

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-uk-to-germany-on-alert-for-wind-storms-rain-to-ease-drought-wildfires-in-spain-and-portugal/70003011

Some of their seasonal European forecasts have been frankly, absolutely crap.

Their last two winter ones have been way off

[weirpig]

Just now, Weather-history said:

Some of their seasonal European forecasts have been frankly, absolutely crap.

Their last two winter ones have been way off

Yep  Last year they also went for a very stormy winter. and that was quite benin   we shall see

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep  Last year they also went for a very stormy winter. and that was quite benin   we shall see

And the winter before was supposedly to be seasonable, nothing seasonable about that December.

Edited October 18, 2017 by Weather-history

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep  Last year they also went for a very stormy winter. and that was quite benin   we shall see

Which is why, these days, I pay no attention whatsoever to seasonal LRFs, weirpig...

[NeilN]

I don't believe that forecast. Unless there is snowy and stormy? 

[Catacol]

At this stage any winter forecast is irrelevant. Fundamentally the pattern in the Pacific is still uncertain and there is no way anyone at present can forecast accurately surges, or lack of, in angular momentum and therefore be clear on whether the vortex will have a strong season or not. We will know a bit more in a month when the state of the Pacific may become clearer and those with high level skills in predicting stratospheric patterns can take a guess at what may transpire. Right now, even in the context of solar decline and an eQBO, we are purely guessing.

[throwoff]

Anyone who believes these long range forecasts needs their head checking!

Snow is 90% nowcasting folks. Let's keep the toys in the pram.

[daz_4]

I'm more than ready for another year of "get those bloody heights away from Europe" 

With that said, western Russia and Scandinavia should cool down nicely in the coming days. Hopefully it will last.

[virtualsphere]

4 hours ago, sundog said:

Certainly another winter for the bin if accweather is anywhere near accurate.

I did mention before - winter 2013/14 -very stormy,2014/15- lack of storms,2015/2016- stormy,2016/2017 lack of storms,2017/2018- storms to return?

My memory might be playing tricks on me but I'm fairly sure 2014-15 was wet and stormy here in the west too.  It may not have felt as stormy, being book-ended by two of the wettest and stormiest on record, 13/14 and 15/16, but I'm sure it was generally more cyclonic / zonal than anything from around 2008 to 2012.  I remember thinking last year was a welcome respite from storms after several years, despite the lack of snow.

I'm not expecting anything noteworthy in the way of cold this year but we're probably overdue a winter with a short sharp cold snap or northerly toppler after several very mild ones preceded by a few with more significant cold (eg Mar 2013 / Dec 2010) - seems unusual we haven't seen anything in between the two extremes recently.

[Snowy Hibbo]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

AccuWeather winter forecast for the UK and Europe

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-uk-to-germany-on-alert-for-wind-storms-rain-to-ease-drought-wildfires-in-spain-and-portugal/70003011

They are well known as 'Inaccuweather'. From what I have heard, they base their forecasts off limited guidance.

[sundog]

2 hours ago, virtualsphere said:

My memory might be playing tricks on me but I'm fairly sure 2014-15 was wet and stormy here in the west too.  It may not have felt as stormy, being book-ended by two of the wettest and stormiest on record, 13/14 and 15/16, but I'm sure it was generally more cyclonic / zonal than anything from around 2008 to 2012.  I remember thinking last year was a welcome respite from storms after several years, despite the lack of snow.

I'm not expecting anything noteworthy in the way of cold this year but we're probably overdue a winter with a short sharp cold snap or northerly toppler after several very mild ones preceded by a few with more significant cold (eg Mar 2013 / Dec 2010) - seems unusual we haven't seen anything in between the two extremes recently.

I dont remember any storms that  winter,perhaps we had the odd one,but im pretty certain there was a lack of storms. My main memory of winter 2014/15 was it often delivered plenty of pm air but nothing more potent then that. Gave me more frosts that winter then last winter for example despite last winter being a HP dominated one. Winter 14/15 also gave me my coldest temp since dec 2010.

Edited October 18, 2017 by sundog

[jvenge]

I kinda like the maps Accuweather use for forecasts, but I think that's where it stops. Of course, they give a forecast and don't explain the logic, but they usually say stormy for the UK and last year was fairly benign. 

For my little Moldova they just seem to go with what the past two winters were like; non starters till January. It's weird to give that much detail when the La Nina strength is looking so uncertain.

Edited October 19, 2017 by jvenge

[Turnedoutniceagain]

REJOICE !!! It's the annual Daily Express 'Snowmageddon' forecast >>  http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/868400/winter-weather-uk-2017-britain-la-nina-big-freeze-forecast

[oasis]

Someone on TWO mentioning that active hurricane season years are more likely to see significantly colder Decembers. Interesting. Here's hoping. 

[HafrenLMP1]

5 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

REJOICE !!! It's the annual Daily Express 'Snowmageddon' forecast >>  http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/868400/winter-weather-uk-2017-britain-la-nina-big-freeze-forecast

Ah, so, shouldn't we expect the complete opposite.....??

[damianslaw]

Recent active hurricane seasons, 2005, 2010 and 2012 did bring some cold or in the case of 2010 notably cold weather in December, admittedly in 2012 it broke mid month and wasn't especially severe, and in 2005 it was generally near average but the synoptics were not far off delivering a notably cold month.

Not sure about 1995, 1996 and, 2008 and 2009 or 2001 how active those hurricane seasons were, but these Decembers again brought alot of cold weather - notably cold anticyclonic in 1995, 1996, 2001, 2008, 2010 and 2012, 2009 unsettled cold.

Edited October 19, 2017 by damianslaw

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

REJOICE !!! It's the annual Daily Express 'Snowmageddon' forecast >>  http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/868400/winter-weather-uk-2017-britain-la-nina-big-freeze-forecast

That's put an end to any chances of snow south of the Pennines, then!

[bellanite]

Interesting to see that the spotless days is now below 2010 at 66days 23% could have an impact this year? But so many other things to take into account. Really hoping for a cold snowy one here in the snowless SW but think it will be a fairly mixed bag with mainly mild stormy conditions with the odd incursions of cold. 

Edited October 19, 2017 by bellanite

[summer blizzard]

5 hours ago, oasis said:

Someone on TWO mentioning that active hurricane season years are more likely to see significantly colder Decembers. Interesting. Here's hoping. 

If we look at years with a 200% seasonal ACE value like our own post 1948 (for the reanalysis charts) then we have.. 

2005

2004

1995

1950

1961

1998

In terms of what it produces there following winters see a generally stronger signal for cold in Feb/March.

In terms of the CET though we see (of a possible 18 months).. 4 cold, 12 average, 2 warm (using 1C departure from 1981-2010 average). What we actually see though is that 1999 and 2005 produce the warm months (with some average) while 2006 was close to average throughout and the others were generally cool to average. 

On the whole though i think most people would enjoy those winters. 06 was sunny, dry and possibly the most frosty i can remember. 05 was broadly dry and ended with easterlies in February. 96 was on a par with 08/09. The others tended to have early cold and average ends. The winter of 62 was also extremely dry. 

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

If we look at years with a 200% seasonal ACE value like our own post 1948 (for the reanalysis charts) then we have.. 

2005

2004

1995

1950

1961

1998

In terms of what it produces there following winters see a generally stronger signal for cold in Feb/March.

In terms of the CET though we see (of a possible 18 months).. 4 cold, 12 average, 2 warm (using 1C departure from 1981-2010 average). What we actually see though is that 1999 and 2005 produce the warm months (with some average) while 2006 was close to average throughout and the others were generally cool to average. 

On the whole though i think most people would enjoy those winters. 06 was sunny, dry and possibly the most frosty i can remember. 05 was broadly dry and ended with easterlies in February. 96 was on a par with 08/09. The others tended to have early cold and average ends. The winter of 62 was also extremely dry. 

Interesting, December 1950 and 1995 were colder than average months with some significant cold. Late Dec 61 delivered very cold conditions as well. Dec 2005 despite being milder than average it was only just, with some cold frosty weather at times and some snow later on. Dec 98 brought a brief northerly early on, but was then mild, likewise Dec 2004 brought a cold blast at christmas otherwise very mild.

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Interesting, December 1950 and 1995 were colder than average months with some significant cold. Late Dec 61 delivered very cold conditions as well. Dec 2005 despite being milder than average it was only just, with some cold frosty weather at times and some snow later on. Dec 98 brought a brief northerly early on, but was then mild, likewise Dec 2004 brought a cold blast at christmas otherwise very mild.

I think we could go on forever psychoanalysing the present with regards to these past events but if the truth be known, none of us are any the wiser. Far too many variables to make much sense of it.