Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

Somehow Greece always manages to grab some wintry weather. 

Yes while much of Europe is getting milder winters Greece, Turkey and the Balkans appear to be getting colder winters.

Undoubtedly a consequence of seemingly unstoppable trail of +NAO winters.

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

JAMSTEC has updated for October

Surface air temp anomaly is shown to be above average

Precipitation anomaly is shown to be average or just below average for most maybe a touch above in the north and west

Pretty much the whole world (well more than 75% of it is "above average") - is that so much of a worry. I am very skeptical about these type of long range outputs. It doesn't mean that we won't get cold / snowy periods that could last 2/3/4 weeks.

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Pretty much the whole world (well more than 75% of it is "above average") - is that so much of a worry. I am very skeptical about these type of long range outputs. It doesn't mean that we won't get cold / snowy periods that could last 2/3/4 weeks.

Yep and from my aging eyes Ireland looks like it's just below average . I suspect an average winter with chance of snow . 

[joggs]

7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

JAMSTEC has updated for October

Surface air temp anomaly is shown to be above average

Precipitation anomaly is shown to be average or just below average for most maybe a touch above in the north and west

Look at temps over Scandi.A big fat Scandi high setting up all winter with the snow going into North Africa,southern Spain lol.

[Allseasons-Si]

7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

JAMSTEC has updated for October

Surface air temp anomaly is shown to be above average

Precipitation anomaly is shown to be average or just below average for most maybe a touch above in the north and west

I cannot weigh it up!!!

plus temp in Scandi and minus temps in Africa,i don't think so

[Paul_1978]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I cannot weigh it up!!!

plus temp in Scandi and minus temps in Africa,i don't think so

It's not showing plus/minus temps - it's anomalies.

[cheeky_monkey]

6 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Pretty much the whole world (well more than 75% of it is "above average") - is that so much of a worry. I am very skeptical about these type of long range outputs. It doesn't mean that we won't get cold / snowy periods that could last 2/3/4 weeks.

you mean 2/3/4 hours?

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

It's not showing plus/minus temps - it's anomalies.

I know that!!

had a bit of pop.

[NeilN]

Looks a bit disjointed, but I refuse to believe it. Perhaps it’s best to predict the worst and get the best? I am sure (quote me if I’m wrong), one of the winters in the earlier part of the decade was predicted mild and turned out to be very cold? 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I don't think we'll have much idea really what Winter will be like until a month's time or more. By then there'll be a lot more contributors and I'm sure some of the more knowledgeable posters such as Tamara and possibly GP will start giving us some clues. Not that they're always right of course. But they do have a very broad grasp of global teleconnections which gives them an idea of how things could go.

Edited October 12, 2017 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Summer Sun]

 

[Weather-history]

On 10/9/2017 at 13:03, Weather-history said:

If you look at the Victorian era from about 1846 to 1885, there were quite a number of very mild Februarys with odd cold ones dotted in. Infact, it was so much that December was colder than February for a 30 year period. 

 

Really odd period, not sure why February in that period was so singled out

1860-61: 1.5, 1.7, 4.9

1867-68: 3.4, 3.9, 6.8

1870-71: 0.6, 0.5, 6.1

1878-79: -0.3, -0.7, 3.1  In a very cold year as 1879, February was unremarkable compared to other months

1879-80: 0.7, 0.9, 5.8

 

 

[knocker]

Have I just twigged who the Snowy Hibbo is?

 

[Bullseye]

Hi all, looking for some links (if available), can anyone provide a link to QBO records pre-1950 as I am looking for some comparisons with other years of high hurricane activity. So looking any help would be appreciated.

Edited October 15, 2017 by Bullseye

[comet]

Way to early still to get a feel for how the upcoming winter will pan out. However at this point in time I feel more confident of seeing a significant cold spell for the UK with laying snow and negative max daytime temps even if it only lasts for a week or so. Compared to the last few winters this would be notable and welcome event should it happen.

I am probably hedging my bets on what we are seeing in the strat in the forecasted period and the propensity for northern blocking that we are seeing in the model output, with the likelihood (hope) of this being being repeated during the coming winter months.

[damianslaw]

I do start to take note of how the atlantic behaves from now through into November as an indicator of likely conditions in the upcoming winter (especially early on through Dec and into Jan). Late October is notoriously an atlantic driven period, with a classic westerly, ridge/trough progression - zonal usually. However, if we see strong blocking to the east or north take hold - which goes against the norm, I do note this as a positive signal for perhaps a less than normal winter atlantic wise - i.e. a non-dominated zonal one. Likewise if we see low pressure coming unstuck, or a southerly tracking jet or just unusual synoptics again another positive signal things might not be as expected come the winter. 

The current synoptics and those forecast for the week ahead as we enter latter period of October, are quite abnormal, sudden ex-tropical storm system taking a highly unusual track, then we have low pressure elongating and stretched in an unusual NW-SE axis, with height rises to the north, and then another low pressure development way to the south centreing itself over the country.. far from typical zonal onslaught or classic ridge/trough scenario, indeed there will be barely a break from low pressure over the next 7 days.

All very interesting and quite unusual. It just feels that the trough wants to settle in over the UK on a southerly dimension which will crucially lead to height rises to the north and then snap..

Edited October 15, 2017 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

Brian Gaze over on TWO

Quote

One issue is the background warmth around the globe. Think of getting a cold winter in the UK as hitting the bullseye on a dartboard. The bullseye is still on the board but it has become smaller.

 

 

[Catacol]

Yep - I dont understand his logic there at all. Background warmth may well modify cold airstreams a bit, but it will mean absolutely nothing if we get a long fetch easterly or trough dropping in from the north. It will still be cold, and cold enough for snow. As far as I am aware potential for vortex disruption and a meridional jet shape is unaffected by "background warmth" so his argument is nonsense.

[oasis]

6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yep - I dont understand his logic there at all. Background warmth may well modify cold airstreams a bit, but it will mean absolutely nothing if we get a long fetch easterly or trough dropping in from the north. It will still be cold, and cold enough for snow. As far as I am aware potential for vortex disruption and a meridional jet shape is unaffected by "background warmth" so his argument is nonsense.

Also what I thought - 1 degree or so ain't gonna do much to an ice day. Unless he's more refering to the Arctic being warmer the last few years, and even then, as you say continental shouldn't be affected. 

[Catacol]

True that marginal situations will lead to less white stuff and more cold rain... but his quote is that the chance of a "cold" winter is now less. A cold winter is defined by synoptics and not by average global temperature anomalies.

[cheese]

6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

True that marginal situations will lead to less white stuff and more cold rain... but his quote is that the chance of a "cold" winter is now less. A cold winter is defined by synoptics and not by average global temperature anomalies.

I think his statement is perfectly accurate. The chances of a cold winter in the UK have evidently fallen over the past 25 years. This isn't surprising.

[Allseasons-Si]

The cfs is showing a good mean for dec,other months are pants though.

[Catacol]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

I think his statement is perfectly accurate. The chances of a cold winter in the UK have evidently fallen over the past 25 years. This isn't surprising.

His statement attributes this to "background warmth." You are not noting the context of the statement which is the key factor. Nobody would deny that we have had fewer cold winters since the 80s - but this is a matter of synoptics and not background warming. The far more interesting debate is why we have had a greater number of winters dominated by westerlies and fewer periods of arctic or continental influence. This is a far more complex debate and one that cannot be answered by raw global temperature increases alone.

 

[phil nw.]

5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

True that marginal situations will lead to less white stuff and more cold rain... but his quote is that the chance of a "cold" winter is now less. A cold winter is defined by synoptics and not by average global temperature anomalies.

The point though Catacol is those marginal situations are more likely these days with the warmer Arctic with less sea ice thus the point of Brian Gazes statement.

Northerlies get more modified over a warmer and more open Arctic sea and i believe now our best source of deep cold is from Siberia/Scandinavia where less modification is likely and we know how rare those patterns are. 

A cold pattern is still possible i am sure but more and more now we need perfection to get deep cold here such as Nov/Dec 2010.

[Catacol]

11 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The point though Catacol is those marginal situations are more likely these days with the warmer Arctic with less sea ice thus the point of Brian Gazes statement.

Northerlies get more modified over a warmer and more open Arctic sea and i believe now our best source of deep cold is from Siberia/Scandinavia where less modification is likely and we know how rare those patterns are. 

A cold pattern is still possible i am sure but more and more now we need perfection to get deep cold here such as Nov/Dec 2010.

Agree. But now we are splitting hairs over the difference between cold and deep cold. I dont like his statement because he is making a broad brush statement that ignores details. We have a tendency to see winters past with tinted specs - NW and northerly airstreams have never been guaranteed bringers of snow though they will always bring cold air and cold rain at least. I grew up in Glasgow in the 70s and 80s and can tell you that unless there was a continental element to the air stream rain was always more likely than snow. To say that global temperature rises have changed the state of northerlies and north westerlies is to grab those tinted specs and ignore the reality.

If we get an embedded Scandy/Greeny high with lower heights to the south then we will always have a chance of both cold and snow. Why Scandinavian Highs have made fewer appearances in recent years is certainly an interesting debate. The last 4 winters have been relatively mild, but the 4 before that had periods of blocked cold. And the CET record shows plenty of mild winters and mild winter periods where clearly westerlies prevailed - though admittedly the run from about 1998 to 2007 was extraordinary for the consistency of mild airstreams and a lack of continental cold in midwinter.

All interesting stuff - but I'm not going to be swayed by a casual comment linking global anomalies to fewer cold winters. The link is not as simple as that makes out.

Edited October 17, 2017 by Catacol