Jump to content
syed2878

Winter 2017 2018 Hopes, Thoughts And Any Early Forecasts

Recommended Posts

I'm predicting another winter of 27 c - 28 c here in Antigua with lots of warm sunshine for all the folk from north America and Europe to enjoy. Antigua avoided the big hurricanes of IRMA & MARIA and very much open for business. 

With BVI, St Maarten & Anguilla seriously damage we hope Antigua will have a bumper season. 

Back in the UK over xmas, so a 09/10 winter please. La Nina in our favour this time. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just to add Feb,the 1 monthly 06z wasn't bad either and at the turn of the month and not December.

cfsnh-0-570.png?06

it seems to keep on churning these wonderful charts out,will we see our first cold snap/spell at the end of the month?

The only problem with that chart is it looks like the PV over Greenland is strengthening.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just to add Feb,the 1 monthly 06z wasn't bad either and at the turn of the month and not December.

cfsnh-0-570.png?06

it seems to keep on churning these wonderful charts out,will we see our first cold snap/spell at the end of the month?

The only problem with that chart is it looks like the PV over Greenland is strengthening.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If one expects the worst, i;e mild, grey mush, as per usual, then anything else is a bonus. But, as someone who struggles with enthusiasm for Christmas unless its cold, and seasonal-like; a bit of cold over the festive period would be nice.

As a cyclist, the less wind the better; rain or cold isn't a problem, but wind is a no-no.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The only problem with that chart is it looks like the PV over Greenland is strengthening.

 

On that run(12z)

Yes noticed the switch between 06z to 12z,vastly differnent,i did post the 06z but has changed,maybe i should save the image instead of copy the image:wallbash:

saved the 06z,the more i look at it,wow:D

cfsnh-0-570_hdz6.thumb.png.a7bd293e0ef8ac3e57f443cfe09f6ad2.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes, the same in Ibiza, just got back last weekend and I have never seen the Island so parched as this September gone and I have been visiting the Pine Island since early 80s. The locals even getting fed up with the prolonged heat and lack of rainfall. Water planes were still putting out fires in the forests on the hillsides the day I came home on 1st October .

 C

Seems strange. I was in Mallorca 3 weeks ago, and we had several days of rain.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I've heard that a mild and dry October can be a good sign for a cold Winter. Mild and wet though is apparently not so good. I've heard that Oct 62 was a fairly pleasant month too (don't know if that's true). 

It doesn't always work that way. 1989, 94 and 2001 had fairly warmish octobers, along with 2006. All the winters that followed were mild or very mild.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 07/10/2017 at 16:11, karyo said:

As a true coldie I can't understand how a week or a fortnight of cold and snow can ever be enough!

Winter 2009/10 was long and snowy with wintry events even in spring but once we reached the point that it was too late in spring for snow I felt I wanted more snow. Lol

Don't get me wrong, I enjoy a good snowfall and hope to see a proper blizzard here in the SE one day, as they are very rare beasts! I'm not a huge fan of cold weather if it goes on and on though, I'd rather have some short spells of wintry interest scattered throughout the season, interspersed with milder weather. And as sunny as possible. 

  • Like 4
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 05/10/2017 at 08:55, sundog said:

Wouldn't be surprised if it's another dud. 

2013/14 was a very stormy one,  lack of storms 2014/15,  2015/16 another stormy one,  2016/2017 lack of storms. Will the storms return for 2017/18???? 

The fact that we have had a different autumn so far compared to recent autumn's gives me some hope,but I think we have one or two more poor winters to get  past before we see something decent. Early 2020s or 2019 at the earliest I'm placing my bets on. This winter not so much.

Morning @sundog :smile:
Seconed, thirded and fourthed! 
I'm, actually thinking exactly the same as you. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Seems strange. I was in Mallorca 3 weeks ago, and we had several days of rain.

Yes, saw some of the shower tops over your way. Think you got the tail end from that low circulation over Sardinia. Dry as a bone in Ibiza 20/09/17-01/10/17.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Yes, saw some of the shower tops over your way. Think you got the tail end from that low circulation over Sardinia. Dry as a bone in Ibiza 20/09/17-01/10/17.

It was dry as a bone and much hotter than average in Sept 2016 too. It was my first time in the island and I have to say, I didn't really like Ibiza.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, karyo said:

It was dry as a bone and much hotter than average in Sept 2016 too. It was my first time in the island and I have to say, I didn't really like Ibiza.

Love the Island . Been going there for 30 years. We stay on the west coast near Cap Negret. Picture of sunset from Cap Negret over San Antonio Bay.

DSCN0257.JPG

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Love the Island . Been going there for 30 years. We stay on the west coast near Cap Negret. Picture of sunset from Cap Negret over San Antonio Bay.

DSCN0257.JPG

It was Cape Regret for me! haha

To be fair I was in the crowded South and everything was so overpriced. You needed a small fortune to enter a club.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes, saw some of the shower tops over your way. Think you got the tail end from that low circulation over Sardinia. Dry as a bone in Ibiza 20/09/17-01/10/17.

It's a shame, because it spoilt our holiday. We were just unlucky I guess. Mind you, on the days we had the sun, temps were in the 27-31 region. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Would tie in with a nina, a front loaded winter, although the nina forecasts have somewhat lowered in strength now.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like the look of the December chart! 

Is the January chart available anywhere?

Even the Feb chart is not that bad as it would allow for some night frost at least.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 07/10/2017 at 00:29, Ice Man 85 said:

If Canada didn't get such hot summers, then I would have moved there long ago!

farnsworth-brisk.png

Btw, it depends what part of Canada. The Atlantic provinces don't get very hot summers. It can be cool and rainy at times. Same goes for Vancouver.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8 October 2017 at 07:34, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

February is the month that's changed the most, used to be a winter month when I was a bairn, Dec and Jan obviously changed but not quite as much

If you look at the Victorian era from about 1846 to 1885, there were quite a number of very mild Februarys with odd cold ones dotted in. Infact, it was so much that December was colder than February for a 30 year period. 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Btw, it depends what part of Canada. The Atlantic provinces don't get very hot summers. It can be cool and rainy at times. Same goes for Vancouver.

Yes, have been to Vancouver and Seattle many times with work and it's generally wetter and cooler than London in summer and very dreary in winter. Takes some doing to be worse than UK weather! Go east though and places like Toronto have a very continental climate with guaranteed snow and cold in winter and hot summers.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Would tie in with a nina, a front loaded winter, although the nina forecasts have somewhat lowered in strength now.

Agreed.

Nina has wavered somewhat since last month. However, Gav'sWeatherVids has a reasonable theory behind this and believes that Nina may come back stronger in the next two weeks or so:

"Ove the past week, La nina has backed off..... But watch out in the next few weeks. Will we get a fresh burst of cold waters rising up to the top, after the positive SOI we've seen in the past few weeks? We'll have to monitor it closely." - Gav's WeatherVids, Fifth Winter 2017.2018 Update.

You can watch the video here :):

 

Edited by mpkio2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, HafrenLMP1 said:

If one expects the worst, i;e mild, grey mush, as per usual, then anything else is a bonus.

Yep Yep but being a weather forum, it isn't a position many can adopt :D

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, have been to Vancouver and Seattle many times with work and it's generally wetter and cooler than London in summer and very dreary in winter. Takes some doing to be worse than UK weather! Go east though and places like Toronto have a very continental climate with guaranteed snow and cold in winter and hot summers.

Yeah, I lived in TO( as the locals know it). It has proper seasons there, but sometimes the winters can be too cold, while the summers can be very humid at times. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ignoring the long range models because they're about as useful as a chocolate teapot, we do have a few things going for us this winter.

A descending -QBO, increasingly lower solar activity (still 18 months or so from the minimum but every little helps) a weakish La Nina and a good start to snowfall across Siberia. 

I can't see us having a winter like the last few, -QBO winters tend to favour front loaded winters, so December/January will probably be our best chance with February/March more likely to be milder. 

But then again, this is the UK. Blocking will probably end up in the wrong place much like last winter.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, mpkio2 said:

Agreed.

Nina has wavered somewhat since last month. However, Gav'sWeatherVids has a reasonable theory behind this and believes that Nina may come back stronger in the next two weeks or so:

"Ove the past week, La nina has backed off..... But watch out in the next few weeks. Will we get a fresh burst of cold waters rising up to the top, after the positive SOI we've seen in the past few weeks? We'll have to monitor it closely." - Gav's WeatherVids, Fifth Winter 2017.2018 Update.

You can watch the video here :):

 

Yes, id already watched Gav's update, I actually don't mind ENSO neutral, anything but strong ENSO signal either way, however, I think what's more important is that wretched +PDO signal is looking like rearing its ugly head sending the jet on a southerly track in the states and then subsequently exploding off the Eastern seaboard again, wondering if it will take a really strong Nina to change this once and for all.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×