Jump to content
syed2878

Winter 2017 2018 Hopes, Thoughts And Any Early Forecasts

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Rather mild and in any sunshine warm.

I was in the East Pyrenees last month and it was obvious how stressed the trees looked from the prolonged drought. Many rivers were completely dry and the farmers were not happy. Another Euro high winter will be a disaster for them.

Yes, the same in Ibiza, just got back last weekend and I have never seen the Island so parched as this September gone and I have been visiting the Pine Island since early 80s. The locals even getting fed up with the prolonged heat and lack of rainfall. Water planes were still putting out fires in the forests on the hillsides the day I came home on 1st October .

 C

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Rollo said:

 

Your memories are very similar to mine,I too still retain the majority of the DWR's for that epic winterI still can remember when a high over Finland moved slowly south to the Baltic intensifying and then pushed an occlusion back westwards on Boxing Day. The fog in the south tat day was bad and lots of football matches were abandoned,as the front moved west visibilities improved rapidly and the long cold winter began. I suppose it could happen again,but it would seem at this stage to be an outside bet.Just for interest the Americens at the end of January 1963 gave a forecast for Britan for February,a much milder month with temperatures returning to thr Norm-how wrong they were.

Our family farm was on the edge of the Cheshire Plain and the walk down the lane to pick up the school bus was about 1/4 mile. I remember the snow drifts higher than me all along the lane. However, the bus always turned up, as did the postman. Our school yard was the biggest ice skating rink in the world, we loved it and the school never closed down due to the weather. They are just wimps these days. Let the snow bombs fly I say , no better than a direct hit on a school prefect! Happy days.

 C

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Our family farm was on the edge of the Cheshire Plain and the walk down the lane to pick up the school bus was about 1/4 mile. I remember the snow drifts higher than me all along the lane. However, the bus always turned up, as did the postman. Our school yard was the biggest ice skating rink in the world, we loved it and the school never closed down due to the weather. They are just wimps these days. Let the snow bombs fly I say , no better than a direct hit on a school prefect! Happy days.

 C

Good to hear you lads remembering 1962-63. It was my second severe winter, being a lad myself in 1947. It seemed more enjoyable in 1947 as I was working in 62-63. I remain a cold lover but in sensible lumps not 3 months no stop thank you.

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As america is getting hit yet again by another hurricane I think we can safely say that this year is a good test to the theory big hurricane season in the US = cold europe winter. Before everyone says it's just another piece in the jigsaw, if we do get a cold winter then we can tick a box at least 

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Then again, it was 25C in the middle of October 1978...and the rest, as they say, is history!:D

I've heard that a mild and dry October can be a good sign for a cold Winter. Mild and wet though is apparently not so good. I've heard that Oct 62 was a fairly pleasant month too (don't know if that's true). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I've heard that a mild and dry October can be a good sign for a cold Winter. Mild and wet though is apparently not so good. I've heard that Oct 62 was a fairly pleasant month too (don't know if that's true). 

There's no real statistical evidence for either. 

Edited by summer blizzard
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

There's no real statistical evidence for either. 

Also I think people equate dry weather with a weak polar vortex and wet with a strong PV, that is not necessarily always the case, you can have a Bartlett set up with a strong polar vortex which would be dry for the South of the UK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I posted in the Model thread last week about the Sept warmth in the Arctic. With the first week of October under our belts the positive 2m temp anomaly in the Arctic is showing no sign of abating. Here’s an update (and btw, I’ve switched to this thread as it’s probably more suited):

NCEP/GFS Analysis

2m Temp Anomaly

September (Actual)

01-07 Oct (Actual)

01-14 Oct (to date plus 7 day Forecast)

60-90N

+1.27C

+1.86C

+1.94C

Greenland

+0.91C

+2.06C

+2.43C

Arctic Ocean

+1.09C

+2.75C

+2.66C

So whilst the Arctic is cooling down as we move towards winter, this analysis shows the rate of cooling is falling well short of the long-term average for the time of year.

2m Temp Anomaly charts for Sept, 01-07 Oct and 01-14 Oct:

59da101ae4a6f_NCEPGFSTempAnomNHSep2017.thumb.png.fe51159e85e839f7f1254e5fd9277153.png59da103450fdd_NCEPGFSArcticTempAnom01-07Oct2017.thumb.png.66cced8d545f5028d86159d67b159744.png59da1045b3511_NCEPGFSArcticTempAnomFcast01-14Oct2017.thumb.png.88d647edb2b9cf0711fe16e7b2a3bf46.png

The current (blocked) 500mb heights pattern over the Arctic seems to be supporting a continuation of the temp anomaly (arguably the pattern may well be caused in the first place by the warmth and thus in a 'vicious circle'). A look at the NH 500mb mean height anomaly for Sep and the first week of October shows positive heights over the Pole. And going forward, the ECM/GFS 8-10 day height anomaly to 17th Oct continues to predict a similar pattern.

500mb Geopotential Heights Mean Anomaly charts for Sept (actual), 01-07 Oct (actual) and ECM/GFS for 15-17 Oct (forecast):

59da14a2a7b2c_NCEP500mbGeopotentialHeightsAnom01-30Sep2017.thumb.jpg.e27a2ec41ce76765164f574e61cfad47.jpg59da15051a826_NCEP500mbGeopotentialHeightsAnomPlot01-07Oct2017.thumb.jpg.c14084e7f4a7a5d8b569f20e74c28960.jpg59da15248eb36_ECMGFS500mb8-10DayHeightAnom07Octfor17Oct.thumb.jpg.0de1d8e40ce61a91ac6f6f63f2f55ff3.jpg

Whilst there's no certainty re implications for winter as we go forward it’s worth recalling this Dec 2016 interview given by Prof Jennifer Francis, an Arctic climate expert at Rutgers University in the US:


“…..we are now in uncharted territory. These rapid changes in the Arctic are affecting weather patterns….. In the past you have had natural variations like El Niño, but they have never happened before in combination with this very warm Arctic, so it is a whole new ball game. It is inconceivable that this ridiculously warm Arctic would not have an impact on weather patterns in the middle latitudes.”

This time last winter we had a similar warm Arctic and at one stage prospects were looking up for a colder start to winter in our part of the world, but other factors intervened. If Mother Nature plays ball and we get the anticipated e-QBO and avoid a strong La Nina, will fans of cold have better luck this winter?

  • Like 9
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I've heard that a mild and dry October can be a good sign for a cold Winter. Mild and wet though is apparently not so good. I've heard that Oct 62 was a fairly pleasant month too (don't know if that's true). 

Hardly-it was 0.3 C above the then running mean value over, I think, 30 years. Unable to find the full tables as the web page I used has been discontinued.

Also over many many years of trying to find links that would give a clue to the following winter I never found any such link. The fact that professional organisations have only limited success with predicting the next 3-6 months ahead suggests this is still the case.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, carinthian said:

Our family farm was on the edge of the Cheshire Plain 

Which part of Cheshire, c? 

My grandparents owned a large farm on S Cheshire border and I know local farmers all tend to know each other! 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Which part of Cheshire, c? 

My grandparents owned a large farm on S Cheshire border and I know local farmers all tend to know each other! 

My dad and granddad farmed between Knutsford and Macclesfield to the East of the county in the 30/s40s/50s/before moving on in the 1960s to pastures new. I remember going to Crewe cattle market with my father , then next to Crewe Alex ground on Gresty Road. Think its no longer there ! I played a lot of cricket in the South Cheshire borders in the 70s and early 80s so know the area well.

C

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, carinthian said:

My dad and granddad farmed between Knutsford and Macclesfield to the East of the county in the 30/s40s/50s/before moving on in the 1960s to pastures new. I remember going to Crewe cattle market with my father , then next to Crewe Alex ground on Gresty Road. Think its no longer there ! I played a lot of cricket in the South Cheshire borders in the 70s and early 80s so know the area well.

C

Ahhhh ok wrong area then!

Yeah my Grandad always used to mention to me about the old cattle market that used to be there, as you say, right across the road from Crewe Alex stadium. I think it has been gone for some time!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Hardly-it was 0.3 C above the then running mean value over, I think, 30 years. Unable to find the full tables as the web page I used has been discontinued.

Also over many many years of trying to find links that would give a clue to the following winter I never found any such link. The fact that professional organisations have only limited success with predicting the next 3-6 months ahead suggests this is still the case.

Don't get me wrong I don't take anything as gospel, I was just adding to Ed Stones point that a warm spell in mid October needn't mean a mild Winter is imminent. I've not much knowledge of what Oct 62 was like, I'm just saying I've heard (probably from somebody on this forum a long time back) that it was a pleasant month. Your right though been as it's got a CET of 10.4c, which though a bit cooler than some recent October's is pretty average. One characteristic I've heard about that month though was it was often sunny with temps rising quite well in the day, then falling back at night under clear skies. I've no idea if that was really the case or not. Besides of course I know that even a carbon copy of that month, wouldn't necessarily mean that a similar Winter would follow suit, but it's still all good fun to try to match current conditions to previous years and look for analogous, as that's all we've got for now really.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a feeling it will be a continuation of the run of winters we had between 1987/88 to 89/90, going by the Indian summer coming up next weekend.

I hope it isn't though, it just seems like so many winters now are like that post 87.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

I am liking the latest cfs run:rofl:

run it through:D:cold:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=-6&mode=0&carte=1&run=10

 

You want to see this run of the 9 month for December, - practically a continual tonking throughout!!

cfsnh-0-1374_dkl4.png

This is how it starts.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Please don't tell me we're in for ANOTHER mild one - Kim Jong Un, can we borrow a missile to fire at the Azores High? 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

Please don't tell me we're in for ANOTHER mild one - Kim Jong Un, can we borrow a missile to fire at the Azores High? 

No we need Donald Trump so we can borrow 1000's of neuclear missiles to fire them straight into the polar regions in January to cause a man made SSW.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You want to see this run of the 9 month for December, - practically a continual tonking throughout!!

cfsnh-0-1374_dkl4.png

This is how it starts.

On the flip side I've seen a few abysmal runs (particularly on the 0z 9 month) - one theme that seems to be occurring most is HP close to the UK through November/December but in the wrong place i.e. near to the south east, and when a scandy high does form undercutting doesn't happen and we generally end up in a southerly.

Oh well all a bit of fun on that model...

Edited by Froze were the Days

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Froze were the Days said:

On the flip side I've seen a few abysmal runs (particularly on the 0z 9 month) - one theme that seems to be occurring most is HP close to the UK through November/December but in the wrong place i.e. near to the south east, and when a scandy high does form simply form undercutting doesn't happen and we generally end up in a southerly.

Oh well all a bit of fun on that model...

tbf though nearly every run was bad not so long ago, a good number are showing cold and some are even showing a cold November.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You want to see this run of the 9 month for December, - practically a continual tonking throughout!!

cfsnh-0-1374_dkl4.png

This is how it starts.

Lol

why does it keep tonking these tonking charts out for us to druel over:laugh:

they are all nice to look at but in reality they don't come off,i would wish they do though:)

surely this winter cannot be as bad as the last few can they,we are in a better situation than then with lower solar activity and a -QBO,what i have noticed in the models of late is that there is more seperation in between lows and high's instead of a strait westerly coming out of Newfoundland or is that onslaught about to take place later on,what ever the weather we will find out soon:D

a final note,i would like to see a 1981 or a 2010 again or even a march 2013

the 81 was quiet prelonged if memory serves with snow drifts right upto my bedroom window and the snow was on the groud for a few weeks,2010 was a short but brutal spell of snow,it snowed for days here and topping up at 1 meter but that was it but was fun while it lasted,march 2013 was very cold with snow blowing about in the easterly wind and created some good drift's not far from here(higher than my elevation) and blocking roads completely,so will 2017/18 deliver,there is a chance:)

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Lol

why does it keep tonking these tonking charts out for us to druel over:laugh:

they are all nice to look at but in reality they don't come off,i would wish they do though:)

surely this winter cannot be as bad as the last few can they,we are in a better situation than then with lower solar activity and a -QBO,what i have noticed in the models of late is that there is more seperation in between lows and high's instead of a strait westerly coming out of Newfoundland or is that onslaught about to take place later on,what ever the weather we will find out soon:D

a final note,i would like to see a 1981 or a 2010 again or even a march 2013

the 81 was quiet prelonged if memory serves with snow drifts ringht upto my bedroom window and the snow was on the groud for a few weeks,2010 was a short but brutal spell of snow,it snowed for days here and topping up at 1 meter but that was it but was fun while it lasted,march 2013 was very cold with snow blowing about in the easterly wind and created some good drift's not far from here(higher than my elevation) and blocking roads completely,so will 2017/18 deliver,there is a chance:)

 

1991 and 87 are the 2 I want.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

1991 and 87 are the 2 I want.

Yes remember them too,although 87 not as much,91 i remember a strong easterly blowing snow about,not seen that since.

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You want to see this run of the 9 month for December, - practically a continual tonking throughout!!

cfsnh-0-1374_dkl4.png

This is how it starts.

Just to add Feb,the 1 monthly 06z wasn't bad either and at the turn of the month and not December.

cfsnh-0-570.png?06

it seems to keep on churning these wonderful charts out,will we see our first cold snap/spell at the end of the month?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×