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Winter 2017 2018 Hopes, Thoughts And Any Early Forecasts

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I'm hoping for 1 day of sleet on Christmas day. Aim low to avoid disappointment.:cold:

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23 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This winter, I'm pinning my hopes on NW'ly polar maritime incursions in the lee of depressions. Not seen a proper Cheshire gap streamer for years!

North westerly polar maritime incursions deliver diddly squat to my back yard.  This winter I'm pinning my hopes on a Canadian holiday which may or may not happen.

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28 minutes ago, Don said:

North westerly polar maritime incursions deliver diddly squat to my back yard.  This winter I'm pinning my hopes on a Canadian holiday which may or may not happen.

Quebec is dreamy!

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19 minutes ago, karyo said:

Quebec is dreamy!

If Canada didn't get such hot summers, then I would have moved there long ago!

farnsworth-brisk.png

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thoughts are dominated by the Atlantic, many named storms, gales and rain most days, slight frosts between systems, snow at times for Scotland in WNW airstreams behind systems

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11 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

If Canada didn't get such hot summers, then I would have moved there long ago!

farnsworth-brisk.png

I lived in Toronto from August 1999(just after the eclipse) until march 2001.

The summer of 99 was very hot, right through until mid September. Temps were hovering between 25-32 or up as high as 34-35 on some days. 

The cooler weather sweeped in by mid September, and the first snows arrived just after Christmas that year. Jan 2000 was snowy, and although it snowed for a week, most of the people I spoke to, said this was a mild winter in comparison to the previous one.

Summer 2000 wasn't as hot, although warm to hot spells occurred in June, July and August, I remember some periods of cooler and thundery conditions. Storms in Toronto are quite widespread, due to Lake Ontario on its doorstep. 

The following winter brought tons of snow, almost to the point where I felt slightly bored with it by the time we reach Feb 2001. 

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2 hours ago, carinthian said:

I remember as a young lad subscribing to the Met Office DWR charts during the winter of 62/63. They arrived in a long brown envelope and showed the previous days synoptics. I often look at those charts and they still blow me away. Intense Scandinavian High started to influence to UK weather just before Christmas and what was to follow was 10 weeks of record cold and snow. Some of the synoptic charts were incredible for the usual run of maritime winters for Britain. Temps below freezing for weeks on end and some of the charts showing fronts stalling across the South of Britain producing blizzards  and day max of -5c with added wind chill. Once in a lifetime experience , I think, maybe 47 had greater widespread snowfall in February but started much later than the 62/63 historic freeze. Will we see the likes again? probabaly not, but never say never !

I think it's possible. Another 1987 or 1991 could happen again. 

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Looking back through the model archives, it does become clear that we were very close (At times) in achieving a cold spell, especially in February.

We had everything on our side last year as well: strong SAI, ENSO, a disturbed looking polar vortex and low solar output. :)

However, the one key aspect that overthrown everything was the unusually strong w-QBO which should have been e-QBO. :nonono:

Because the winds were so strongly westerly, this, in turn, strengthened the polar vortex. With solar ouput gaining in strength and the MJO transferring to an unfavorable position (For cold).:sorry:

For example, looking at the chart below for the 10th February 2017, you would have thought we were on the brink of a cold spell from the east!....

AVN_1_2017021000_1.png

Scandy High, low to the south, great!:D

However, a few days later and all is gone!

AVN_1_2017021500_1.png

High sunk with Atlantic trying to storm through. :80:

Its possible if last year was e-QBO, we might have hit the jackpot, really, But hey ho, that's only my analysis.

This year is e-QBO, and with winds high up in the strat becoming more -ve, we might have shot this year.

Let's just hope that everything fits together and we can at least get a snowfall this winter.

Heres to hoping! :drinks::cold:

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6 hours ago, carinthian said:

I remember as a young lad subscribing to the Met Office DWR charts during the winter of 62/63. They arrived in a long brown envelope and showed the previous days synoptics. I often look at those charts and they still blow me away. Intense Scandinavian High started to influence to UK weather just before Christmas and what was to follow was 10 weeks of record cold and snow. Some of the synoptic charts were incredible for the usual run of maritime winters for Britain. Temps below freezing for weeks on end and some of the charts showing fronts stalling across the South of Britain producing blizzards  and day max of -5c with added wind chill. Once in a lifetime experience , I think, maybe 47 had greater widespread snowfall in February but started much later than the 62/63 historic freeze. Will we see the likes again? probabaly not, but never say never !

Synoptics for that winter were exceptional and indeed, fascinating. Personally though, I hope never to see the like in this country. A week, at most a fortnight, of cold and snow is quite exciting and fun but after that it gets a bit much. 

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6 hours ago, carinthian said:

I remember as a young lad subscribing to the Met Office DWR charts during the winter of 62/63. They arrived in a long brown envelope and showed the previous days synoptics. I often look at those charts and they still blow me away. Intense Scandinavian High started to influence to UK weather just before Christmas and what was to follow was 10 weeks of record cold and snow. Some of the synoptic charts were incredible for the usual run of maritime winters for Britain. Temps below freezing for weeks on end and some of the charts showing fronts stalling across the South of Britain producing blizzards  and day max of -5c with added wind chill. Once in a lifetime experience , I think, maybe 47 had greater widespread snowfall in February but started much later than the 62/63 historic freeze. Will we see the likes again? probabaly not, but never say never !

I think winter 78/79 is the only winter I remember that came remotely close to the big freeze of 62/63.

C

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10 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Synoptics for that winter were exceptional and indeed, fascinating. Personally though, I hope never to see the like in this country. A week, at most a fortnight, of cold and snow is quite exciting and fun but after that it gets a bit much. 

As a true coldie I can't understand how a week or a fortnight of cold and snow can ever be enough!

Winter 2009/10 was long and snowy with wintry events even in spring but once we reached the point that it was too late in spring for snow I felt I wanted more snow. Lol

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The elastic statistical band on a very chilly February is very stretched,  stretching all the way back to 1991. It is surely going to snap very soon.

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5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The elastic statistical band on a very chilly February is very stretched,  stretching all the way back to 1991. It is surely going to snap very soon.

I think I remember you bringing this fact up as far back as late 2012 or earlier. And we ended up with a very cold March in 2013 instead (though Feb that year was still a bit cold). As you've said before as well we've had a very cold Nov, Dec, Jan and Mar in the recent past but a very cold Feb has been a long time coming. Can't be much longer surely. If it was to happen though, I'd want a very cold Dec and Jan as well as Feb is the longest Winter month to wait for and after 4 snow starved years I'm not sure I've got the patience :D. Especially when you come on this forum even in mid December and people are often throwing in the towel (often they've been proved correct as well). Or it would have to be such a solid long range forecast, the likes of which has never been seen, that every meteorologist on earth is so convinced of it that they all agree that only an asteroid impact or something could prevent it, to allow me to feel relaxed about however cold or not the preceding months of Winter are :D.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The elastic statistical band on a very chilly February is very stretched,  stretching all the way back to 1991. It is surely going to snap very soon.

We have had a few close but no cigar February's since 1991 with 2009 and 2012 being classic examples.  They both looked very promising at the beginning and 2009 especially delivered copious amounts of snow to the south early on.  However, they both went  'pear shaped' after mid month and consequently they were not particularly cold with 2009 returning a CET of 4.1C and 2012 3.8C.  Very disappointing after such promising starts for cold weather fans.......

Edited by Don
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6 hours ago, karyo said:

As a true coldie I can't understand how a week or a fortnight of cold and snow can ever be enough!

Winter 2009/10 was long and snowy with wintry events even in spring but once we reached the point that it was too late in spring for snow I felt I wanted more snow. Lol

Yes it was a proper winter for the UK with the SE getting plenty of snow and late March snow for NW England. I have a dreaded feeling of Euro high taking place during late Autumn with endless days of sunshine and frost over us and mild and dullness sludge over the UK. Hope I am wrong for all. The sheer thought makes me shudder at the prospect of a no show snow event for all !

C

C

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Like I've said before, I nice tectonic shift to float the UK too far north for that damned Azores High to exert its influence would go down a treat.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, carinthian said:

I remember as a young lad subscribing to the Met Office DWR charts during the winter of 62/63. They arrived in a long brown envelope and showed the previous days synoptics. I often look at those charts and they still blow me away. Intense Scandinavian High started to influence to UK weather just before Christmas and what was to follow was 10 weeks of record cold and snow. Some of the synoptic charts were incredible for the usual run of maritime winters for Britain. Temps below freezing for weeks on end and some of the charts showing fronts stalling across the South of Britain producing blizzards  and day max of -5c with added wind chill. Once in a lifetime experience , I think, maybe 47 had greater widespread snowfall in February but started much later than the 62/63 historic freeze. Will we see the likes again? probabaly not, but never say never !

 

15 hours ago, carinthian said:

I remember as a young lad subscribing to the Met Office DWR charts during the winter of 62/63. They arrived in a long brown envelope and showed the previous days synoptics. I often look at those charts and they still blow me away. Intense Scandinavian High started to influence to UK weather just before Christmas and what was to follow was 10 weeks of record cold and snow. Some of the synoptic charts were incredible for the usual run of maritime winters for Britain. Temps below freezing for weeks on end and some of the charts showing fronts stalling across the South of Britain producing blizzards  and day max of -5c with added wind chill. Once in a lifetime experience , I think, maybe 47 had greater widespread snowfall in February but started much later than the 62/63 historic freeze. Will we see the likes again? probabaly not, but never say never !

Your memories are very similar to mine,I too still retain the majority of the DWR's for that epic winterI still can remember when a high over Finland moved slowly south to the Baltic intensifying and then pushed an occlusion back westwards on Boxing Day. The fog in the south tat day was bad and lots of football matches were abandoned,as the front moved west visibilities improved rapidly and the long cold winter began. I suppose it could happen again,but it would seem at this stage to be an outside bet.Just for interest the Americens at the end of January 1963 gave a forecast for Britan for February,a much milder month with temperatures returning to thr Norm-how wrong they were.

Edited by Rollo
Came out badly
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I  would like to experience a winter like 60 to 63 ones in my life time or 47 or even the winter of 7879 

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15 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The elastic statistical band on a very chilly February is very stretched,  stretching all the way back to 1991. It is surely going to snap very soon.

February is the month that's changed the most, used to be a winter month when I was a bairn, Dec and Jan obviously changed but not quite as much

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11 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes it was a proper winter for the UK with the SE getting plenty of snow and late March snow for NW England. I have a dreaded feeling of Euro high taking place during late Autumn with endless days of sunshine and frost over us and mild and dullness sludge over the UK. Hope I am wrong for all. The sheer thought makes me shudder at the prospect of a no show snow event for all !

C

C

It is already forming as we speak. The models for the rest of October look horrible.

I know some people will say let's get it out of the way now before winter starts but in recent years it is a recurring feature that once it appears it doesn't shift. 

 

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The possibility of some record heat for oct next weekend doesnt fill me with hope about this winter. That might  sound like me being a bit ott but i belive that things like that are not a good omen. 

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16 minutes ago, karyo said:

It is already forming as we speak. The models for the rest of October look horrible.

I know some people will say let's get it out of the way now before winter starts but in recent years it is a recurring feature that once it appears it doesn't shift. 

 

Yep, just seen the latest runs , its there. Nice Autumn colours for us in the sunshine and warmth. Not sure whats in store for Manchester but probably looking mild outcome for mid -season with winds from south of west.

 C

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1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Yep, just seen the latest runs , its there. Nice Autumn colours for us in the sunshine and warmth. Not sure whats in store for Manchester but probably looking mild outcome for mid -season with winds from south of west.

 C

Rather mild and in any sunshine warm.

I was in the East Pyrenees last month and it was obvious how stressed the trees looked from the prolonged drought. Many rivers were completely dry and the farmers were not happy. Another Euro high winter will be a disaster for them.

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6 minutes ago, sundog said:

The possibility of some record heat for oct next weekend doesnt fill me with hope about this winter. That might  sound like me being a bit ott but i belive that things like that are not a good omen. 

Then again, it was 25C in the middle of October 1978...and the rest, as they say, is history!:D

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