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Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion


syed2878

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well for me December is the key since 1955 for us,  if December averages over 6C we don't get a cold winter. Indeed only one year 1972 where Jan and Feb came in slightly below normal. Normally either Jan or Feb are also mild as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The met office maps have updated for November generally milder than average with lower than normal pressure to our north and east

2cat_20171101_mslp_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.3b1b2b46fe0068c102b31f0a06d85021.png2cat_20171101_t850_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.c1082c2ad56f89275dabd26acdfd5e2f.png2cat_20171101_temp2m_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.c8c36fb56c4077c3a325fe9c5e4d9af4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The met office maps have updated for November generally milder than average with lower than normal pressure to our north and east

2cat_20171101_mslp_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.3b1b2b46fe0068c102b31f0a06d85021.png2cat_20171101_t850_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.c1082c2ad56f89275dabd26acdfd5e2f.png2cat_20171101_temp2m_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.c8c36fb56c4077c3a325fe9c5e4d9af4.png

That's a better update than some of the prior ones i think. The ridging is a bit more Azores/Atlantic based than Euro based even if the AO does not play ball. 

It's not hard to imagine that if they did monthly forecasts with the model we get a month with a Atlantic High/Scandi Trough like pattern. 

.....

On the subject of winter some of you will remember a few weeks ago that i referenced east based Nina's from another forum. The guy in question has updated based on October and thinks his analogies are on track at least with the forecast for the US which has a retrograding trough as winter progresses from east to west - possibly suggests a less zonal jet leaving the US as winter progresses.

FjpxPxE.png&key=ac32470e31432e4b7824d743

I should say that i quite like the 05 analogue a lot. 85 and 96 were coming off a prior Nina and so gradually may move away from us while 62 was too neutral (we are definitely going to peak more towards a weak/moderate Nina as things stand). 05 on the other hand was about the right pace and about the right strength. It had a summer with a brilliant mid-June to mid-July period followed by a less cool and wet version of ours, it had quite a mild October with blocking to the east of the UK similar to our warm pulses and it had a fridgid second half of November (one of the coldest in the last century). The winter on the whole was very dry, very frosty (December was relatively mobile but still cool) and finally produced towards the end. It also had the -QBO and the stonking hurricane season. 

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

MetOffice ENSO forecast has updated today and is now predicting a deeper Nina. Not good news if we want to see cold later season. Moderate to strong Ninas have a poor track record for UK winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

MetOffice ENSO forecast has updated today and is now predicting a deeper Nina. Not good news if we want to see cold later season. Moderate to strong Ninas have a poor track record for UK winter. 

Maybe not, but perhaps better news for cooling global temperatures? 

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
27 minutes ago, Catacol said:

MetOffice ENSO forecast has updated today and is now predicting a deeper Nina. Not good news if we want to see cold later season. Moderate to strong Ninas have a poor track record for UK winter. 

You can get exceptions with 95/96 being one of them, that was a moderate Nina winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
23 minutes ago, Don said:

Maybe not, but perhaps better news for cooling global temperatures? 

Not especially important in a thread looking at winter hopes. I had hoped we might see Nina fade but in reality it seems to be gathering pace. It is a blow to hopes this winter for cold in Jan/Feb - but perhaps we can see better fortune develop later. Fine margins count for much in the UK and topplers can produce at times.

Glosea update appears to be in tune with the Nina forecast. Chances of a westerly dominated winter once strat and trop couple in December have increased today.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
12 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

You can get exceptions with 95/96 being one of them, that was a moderate Nina winter.

95/96 bottomed out at around -1. Bulk of the Metoffice members are seeing -1.5 to -2. Not the same. 88/89 and 98/99 both had Ninas in this bracket... and none of our more famous winters have occurred in Ninas of greater than -1. The only exception was the early cold we got in Dec 10 but the strength of the Nina that year soon put an end to the cold. Chio's call of front loaded cold (if we are to get some) would seem a good call at the moment. We may need to make the most of what is coming in around 10 days' time and hope that the strat/trop disconnect can continue as long as possible.

 

But hey - funny things happen. The Nina could begin to wane quicker than expected and trend back towards neutral, and then the next MJO phase later in December might possibly have enough grunt to force some higher lat blocking. Only time will tell... but I will be watching Nina development over the next 4 weeks carefully. If it continues to deepen right through to Xmas then..... :-(

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

95/96 bottomed out at around -1. Bulk of the Metoffice members are seeing -1.5 to -2. Not the same. 88/89 and 98/99 both had Ninas in this bracket... and none of our more famous winters have occurred in Ninas of greater than -1. The only exception was the early cold we got in Dec 10 but the strength of the Nina that year soon put an end to the cold. Chio's call of front loaded cold (if we are to get some) would seem a good call at the moment. We may need to make the most of what is coming in around 10 days' time and hope that the strat/trop disconnect can continue as long as possible.

 

But hey - funny things happen. The Nina could begin to wane quicker than expected and trend back towards neutral, and then the next MJO phase later in December might possibly have enough grunt to force some higher lat blocking. Only time will tell... but I will be watching Nina development over the next 4 weeks carefully. If it continues to deepen right through to Xmas then..... :-(

ENSO has been poorly modelled fthroughout this year so any such predictions should be taken with a large dose of salt. Most of the climo models appear to be factoring in  a moderate Nina hence the less than spectacular long range forecasts

Edited by Hocus Pocus
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Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall obviously.
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
1 hour ago, Hocus Pocus said:

ENSO has been poorly modelled fthroughout this year so any such predictions should be taken with a large dose of salt. Most of the climo models appear to be factoring in  a moderate Nina hence the less than spectacular long range forecasts

This ^^^ 

The IRI produce this chart, that shows all the ENSO predictions for the last year or so.

IMG_2784.thumb.GIF.b6fefe1b18446bf6c27895898e62a111.GIF

It shows that the models can go off track quite a lot (black line = obs).

 

Anyway I released a seasonal forecast today. It's for the European Alps, but also has relevance for the UK, as I focus on impacts to the AO. Enjoy....

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Thanks to Richard2901 research, the term "m##ern winter" was used at least as far back as January 1849. Yes the early Victorians were using that term to describe any snowless, frostless period during their winters.

So there is nothing modern about that term! Ian Brown certainly didn't coin it like he claimed he did a few years ago. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
7 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

This ^^^ 

The IRI produce this chart, that shows all the ENSO predictions for the last year or so.

IMG_2784.thumb.GIF.b6fefe1b18446bf6c27895898e62a111.GIF

It shows that the models can go off track quite a lot (black line = obs).

 

Anyway I released a seasonal forecast today. It's for the European Alps, but also has relevance for the UK, as I focus on impacts to the AO. Enjoy....

 

 

Yes, the huge amount of scatter highlights how much ENSO has been poorly modelled throughout the year,  this is why I’m not buying into just how strong Nina becomes. Anyway enough on this matter what will be will be. ?

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

I thought most models had moderated their enso forecasts to quite a weak nina? Do any other forecasts agree with the meto thoughts?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
19 hours ago, Catacol said:

95/96 bottomed out at around -1. Bulk of the Metoffice members are seeing -1.5 to -2. Not the same. 88/89 and 98/99 both had Ninas in this bracket... and none of our more famous winters have occurred in Ninas of greater than -1.  

 

Oh dear, but what will be will be.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Nina is only one factor, but if it does drop to -1.5 then analog years would tend to suggest it will over ride any other signal and produce a westerly, wet and perhaps above average mid to late winter.

However, as already stated, it may not drop so low... and it may begin to trend back to neutral just as a new phase of the MJO begins. Much still to be resolved. For my own part the Nina forecast has tempered my expectations. Low expectations may be just the right way to head into winter and enjoy any surprises that might occur!

In the near term we have an ongoing Trop/Strat disconnect and residual effects of a fairly potent October MJO creating a -AO. Let's enjoy what comes - if it comes...

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Nina is only one factor, but if it does drop to -1.5 then analog years would tend to suggest it will over ride any other signal and produce a westerly, wet and perhaps above average mid to late winter.

However, as already stated, it may not drop so low... and it may begin to trend back to neutral just as a new phase of the MJO begins. Much still to be resolved. For my own part the Nina forecast has tempered my expectations. Low expectations may be just the right way to head into winter and enjoy any surprises that might occur!

In the near term we have an ongoing Trop/Strat disconnect and residual effects of a fairly potent October MJO creating a -AO. Let's enjoy what comes - if it comes...

Would be good to know of other winters with a La Nina of -1.5 degrees or below. As you say it is just one factor, and others may override it. I think winter 2010/2011 had a moderate la nina, and was indeed very front-loaded..

It still remains to be seen whether we hit such territory. Odd things have occured with some of the teleconnections in recent years, last year was odd - with a very weak La Nina which stuttered, and the failed easterly QBO. Indeed this year has been odd ENSO wise, with things looking like they were going El Nino in the summer, its been a late starter this trend to La Nina, whats the betting of further flips??

I remain more cautiously optimistic for this winter in terms of cold weather at least, but always best to keep your expectations low.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Quite a good graph here.

oni.png

 

However - for analog junkies - Alan Huffman has noted that the PDO is in weak positive phase and based on a positive reading since Jan 14 may well stay that way. The analog years for a weak Nina (if it will hold as weak) with a +PDO are 1962/63, 1984/85 and 1995/96. Suddenly doesnt seem so bad when reading it that way.. :-) He also correctly points out that regions 4 and 3.4 are less Nina like, and perhaps this will aid in a more active MJO phase come late December than we might normally expect in a Nina year.

 

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Would be good to know of other winters with a La Nina of -1.5 degrees or below. As you say it is just one factor, and others may override it. I think winter 2010/2011 had a moderate la nina, and was indeed very front-loaded..

It still remains to be seen whether we hit such territory. Odd things have occured with some of the teleconnections in recent years, last year was odd - with a very weak La Nina which stuttered, and the failed easterly QBO. Indeed this year has been odd ENSO wise, with things looking like they were going El Nino in the summer, its been a late starter this trend to La Nina, whats the betting of further flips??

I remain more cautiously optimistic for this winter in terms of cold weather at least, but always best to keep your expectations low.

ptUXF3KKax.png

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Equally, the period surrounding December 2010 was into significant La Nina territory (hovering between -1.5 and 2) and I probably don't need to remind too many here what transpired

I think the fears are founded, but there will always be exceptions and taking just one or two index's/teleconnections on their own and making a forecast based upon this will always be fraught with danger.

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Posted
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Proper Seasons,lots of frost and snow October to April, hot summers!
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria

Looking back through the global records two of the strongest La Nina events to occur over November to January were in 1916/17 (third most severe La Nina for those months over last 117 years - this was a cold snowy winter in Britain) and in 1955/56 (second most intense La Nina for those three months over last 117 years, a cold winter, - February 1956 had a CET below freezing-point). Top of the La Nina (November to January) List is 1975/76- which was a dry winter rather than mild (wintry spell late January 1976 and March 1976 was really cold,  if anyone is able to recall that far back). 1942 and 1943 had quite persistent La Nina conditions, the ensuing winters in 1942/43 and 1943/44 were punctuated by very cold spells over the UK and Western Europe, as was the case with almost all the War Winters. 

Mention has been made of the mild winters following strong La Nina episodes in 1988 and 1998. In late 1988 we were approaching Sunspot Maximum (Schwabe Cycle 22) and sunspot activity was increasing towards maximum (Cycle 23) by the end of 1998. High sunspot activity and CME's, such as one gets closer to Sunspot Maxima tend not to be conducive to cold winters. The very mild 1988/89 winter was also preceeded by a QBO that was easterly,  but not more than a tiny breeze at the 30 mb level. 

Looking back through the records, La Nina would appear to correlate (to the extent that you can correlate the ENSO State with the ensuing winter) with cooler drier winters in Western Europe rather than mild and wet. 

This stands to reason if you apply some basic meteorology to how a strong La Nina might affect the global circulation: The zone of hot steamy air near the Equator that is usually peppered with a myriad thunderstorms is the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ for short): The ITCZ is the Powerhouse of the entire global circulation. Anything that weakens the ITCZ (like a large area of cooler-than-normal Equatorial waters, such as a strong La Nina would result in) resulting in less rising air and fewer thunderstorms weakens the NE and SE Trades that feed into the ITCZ, less Westerly Atmospheric Angular Momentum is loaded into the global circulation and this, in turn, leads to weaker Westerlies in higher latitudes.

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Posted
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Proper Seasons,lots of frost and snow October to April, hot summers!
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria

PS,

The reference to the ENSO events dating back to 1900 are here:

http:/www.ersl.noaa.gov>psd>past-enso-events

 

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On 12/11/2017 at 22:01, Catacol said:

Quite a good graph here.

oni.png

 

However - for analog junkies - Alan Huffman has noted that the PDO is in weak positive phase and based on a positive reading since Jan 14 may well stay that way. The analog years for a weak Nina (if it will hold as weak) with a +PDO are 1962/63, 1984/85 and 1995/96. Suddenly doesnt seem so bad when reading it that way.. :-) He also correctly points out that regions 4 and 3.4 are less Nina like, and perhaps this will aid in a more active MJO phase come late December than we might normally expect in a Nina year.

 

 The El Ninos get stronger with each "cycle" and the La Ninas seem not to be phased, so why are the La Ninas not getting weaker? :wallbash:Or they are but not demonstrated too well on this graph?

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
7 hours ago, iapennell said:

PS,

The reference to the ENSO events dating back to 1900 are here:

http:/www.ersl.noaa.gov>psd>past-enso-events

 

That link doesn't work.

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