Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

[Roger J Smith]

As posted in the "seasonal forecast" thread, I am expecting a rather cold winter (compared to recent 30-50 year averages) that might fit into the middle of the range of 18th or 19th century winters. There are some modestly optimistic signs developing that this will not be a highly zonal winter and the zonal portions may be fairly cold-sourced too.

You can read the whole spiel over in the other thread, the main themes would be mild early to mid December, then a stormy interval lasting about a month from mid-December to mid-January, best chances for cold and wintry episodes coming towards end of that and beyond into late January, then blocking that slowly becomes more southerly than easterly during February, so a return to quite mild weather later February. 

That would make it a relatively short but active winter that produces some noteworthy events and with potential for one of the predicted major storms to be quite severe as I think the jet stream is going to be quite compressed over the Atlantic much of the winter. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Roger

I did my early thoughts and I think we have some cold shots but any proper cold spell not lasting beyond a 10 day period.   A period of early Jan, (2nd week region) and end of Jan into first week of Feb are two key periods I’m looking at.  Cold-ish week before Christmas.....breakdown for Xmas week?.  Let’s see if we get a cold latter half of Nov I’m hedging for.

 

BFTP

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I'm most concerned at any indication of cold, snowy weather, as the NHS is near the point of collapse and any bad weather could see A&E having to close their doors in many areas.  We really need a mild, not too wet winter, rather like last year in the south, IMO, despite how much cold fans would dislike it.

[Allseasons-Si]

The latest from Gavins weather vids

from yesterday

from this afternoon

i am getting a little exited but caution is the best word i can discribe it cos we need the blocking to fall in the right place for our little tiny blot on the landscape

[cheese]

54 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm most concerned at any indication of cold, snowy weather, as the NHS is near the point of collapse and any bad weather could see A&E having to close their doors in many areas.  We really need a mild, not too wet winter, rather like last year in the south, IMO, despite how much cold fans would dislike it.

Conversely, a cold winter might be the kick up the weeble this country needs to get its act together. The NHS needs something doing to it and I feel like nothing will happen until it faces a major crisis. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, cheese said:

. The NHS needs something doing to it

Yes, the money that it receives (plenty of btw) needs to be put towards facilities and nurses rather than the fat cats creaming off the top!

Another consequence of Blairite Labour I'm afraid. A target driven pen pushing exercise which has allowed those at the top to flourish on 6 figure+ salaries.

Edited November 7, 2017 by CreweCold

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

21 minutes ago, cheese said:

Conversely, a cold winter might be the kick up the weeble this country needs to get its act together. The NHS needs something doing to it and I feel like nothing will happen until it faces a major crisis. 

I can't accept the suffering it would cause, though.

[cheese]

23 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, the money that it receives (plenty of btw) needs to be put towards facilities and nurses rather than the fat cats creaming off the top!

Another consequence of Blairite Labour I'm afraid. A target driven pen pushing exercise which has allowed those at the top to flourish on 6 figure+ salaries.

No point talking about 'Blairite Labour' when they are no longer in power. You need to pressure the current lot to fix it, because with each passing year it gets worse.

Edited November 7, 2017 by cheese

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

No point talking about 'Blairite Labour' when they are no longer in power. You need to pressure the current lot to fix it, because with each passing year it gets worse.

Yeah...always convenient to dismiss 'Blairite Labour' and their part in destroying various facets of our country. Sometimes there's no easy way back from the damage that has been caused.

[Paul]

Can we keep politics of of here please.

[cheese]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yeah...always convenient to dismiss 'Blairite Labour' and their part in destroying various facets of our country. Sometimes there's no easy way back from the damage that has been caused.

Yeah, except the Conservatives have been in power for nearing on a decade - at some point you have to lay some blame on their door, rather than harking on about Blair and how awful he was. If the Conservatives were interested in rectifying the issues that the NHS currently faces, it wouldn't take the best part of 7 years to do so.

If people in the UK were able to look at things objectively rather than trying to blame everything on the political party they don't like, maybe things would actually change for the better here. In Germany, the two major parties were able to form a coalition - but politics in the UK isn't mature enough for that, because both Labour and the Tories are more interested in scoring points against one another like children instead of working together to improve the lives of people living here.

Anyway, that's all I have to say. 

Edited November 7, 2017 by cheese

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

15 minutes ago, Paul said:

Can we keep politics of of here please.

My fault, apologies; my concern was merely at how the country might manage a severe winter given the reports we're hearing regarding a crisis in emergency care, not to apportion blame.

[Hotspur62]

Although i have been a regular browser through Summer( and what a very good summer it was down here in Kent from early June till late July and then bang average thereafter for the school holidays) i love coming on here from early November to see all the regular contributors plus newbies predict/analyze what is in store for the UK this winter.I see from the latest charts(esp GFS) things look promising for 2 weeks ahead(what could possibly go wrong lol?) from a coldies perspective but certainly from a South pov this would be too early if you want laying snow.In my lifetime i can only remember about 3 or 4 snow events in Kent that gave significant falls and they were all from 25th Nov onwards. The infamous 2010 snow event started 28th Nov here in Kent but the cold started about a week before and just grew more intense as the days passed.Will it happen again this year?Unlikely but you can never say never in any walk of life!!

I think this winter will see 2 or 3 nationwide snow events as the background signals are more in favour of cold spells developing in the UK compared to last 3 winters which in terms of cold/snow in the South have been very poor.However,i feel we will have better chances of cold from 2019 when we will be  in solar minimum but that is my personal pov.

In the meantime i will be an avid viewer of the Mod Thread over the next 4 months,see Peachy Charts at D10,toys thrown out of the pram,Tamara"s summaries that hurt my brain,The Holy Grail of the Murr Sausage,Nick Sussex giving his hilarious summaries etc etc.Keep up the great work guys as the search for another December 2010 is what we all strive for.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

.Keep up the great work guys as the search for another December 2010 is what we all strive for.

Incorrect, I'm afraid.  As an instinctive moderate cold fan who has learned to rationalise and has consequently become a reluctant but accepting mild fan, I don't want to see a month like that ever again.

[Hotspur62]

3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Incorrect, I'm afraid.  As an instinctive moderate cold fan who has learned to rationalise and has consequently become a reluctant but accepting mild fan, I don't want to see a month like that ever again.

Thats fair enough.I should have said vast majority as opposed to "all".My mistake

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

Thats fair enough.I should have said vast majority as opposed to "all".My mistake

Thanks for not reacting to a slightly aggressive-sounding post that was a result of something unrelated that got me slightly annoyed.

[NeilN]

I know predictions can go belly-up, and we’re still early in the game but I think we’re in a stronger position than we have been over the last few years.

I think this may be the start of a cold run similar to the one nearly 10 years ago.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

I know predictions can go belly-up, and we’re still early in the game but I think we’re in a stronger position than we have been over the last few years.

I think this may be the start of a cold run similar to the one nearly 10 years ago.

But, same most years, sure we have sayings like this every Nov, Nov is generally too early for snow away from high levels (south), North maybe do okay, these signals are FI, seen it many times, only to disappear, 

maybe though as it's only Nov, won't be too bad if it disappears, hope it comes back say 1 month later

[stodge]

Morning all

I've no specific forecast to offer but some signs and times I always look for:

3rd Week November: For some reason we often get a colder snap or spell around this time. This is our first taste of something more wintry but for the south it's more in terms of frost or fog rather than snow.

1st Week December: Often very mild and wet. Not stormy as such but a long fetch SW'ly and temperatures well into double figures.

Mid December: Another brief cold/frosty interlude before a generally milder run up to Christmas.

Late December: Post Christmas but before New Year I look for another colder spell with snow a real prospect for much of the country. The other option is an anticyclonic spell of frost and fog under an inversion. Quite possible for London to have an ice day under such a set up.

Early-Mid January: The cold spell breaks at or just after New Year and much of early January is quite mild. My birthday is on the 15th and I have rarely seen snow.

Late January-Mid February: The coldest part of the winter and the most likely to get snow. If it doesn't happen then look for a late cold blast toward the end of February and into March.

Late February: Contrasting. If we've had cold already, it will be the first signs of the coming of spring but if it's been a relatively mild winter, we can have a late and quite severe cold snap with transient March snow not at all uncommon even further south.

[Don]

With the current interest for a possible genuine cold snap later this month, one year bugs me a little, 1988.   November of that year had a cold wintry spell during the final third with snow for a fair few, even parts of the south, but look what kind of winter followed......  However, that said, winter did return with a vengeance in April 1989, but you know what I'm getting at!  Not saying the same will happen this year but was wondering what the back ground signals were like back in November 1988?  Didn't we also have a La Nina back then for example?  I would be interested to hear people's views on what similarities we currently have to that year.

Edited November 8, 2017 by Don

[Man With Beard]

12 hours ago, stodge said:

Morning all

I've no specific forecast to offer but some signs and times I always look for:

3rd Week November: For some reason we often get a colder snap or spell around this time. This is our first taste of something more wintry but for the south it's more in terms of frost or fog rather than snow.

1st Week December: Often very mild and wet. Not stormy as such but a long fetch SW'ly and temperatures well into double figures.

Mid December: Another brief cold/frosty interlude before a generally milder run up to Christmas.

Late December: Post Christmas but before New Year I look for another colder spell with snow a real prospect for much of the country. The other option is an anticyclonic spell of frost and fog under an inversion. Quite possible for London to have an ice day under such a set up.

Early-Mid January: The cold spell breaks at or just after New Year and much of early January is quite mild. My birthday is on the 15th and I have rarely seen snow.

Late January-Mid February: The coldest part of the winter and the most likely to get snow. If it doesn't happen then look for a late cold blast toward the end of February and into March.

Late February: Contrasting. If we've had cold already, it will be the first signs of the coming of spring but if it's been a relatively mild winter, we can have a late and quite severe cold snap with transient March snow not at all uncommon even further south.

You know what, I've never thought of it like that, but you are actually pretty much bang on! I've seen lots of snowy birthdays in early March.

[sundog]

2nd half of nov 2005 is another one, although winter 2005/06 wasn't great it was among the better winters of the last 20yrs.

[sundog]

As

13 hours ago, stodge said:

 

Late January-Mid February: The coldest part of the winter and the most likely to get snow. If it doesn't happen then look for a late cold blast toward the end of February and into March.

 

I haven't had any proper snow cover here during the second half of Jan since the 80s. It's a time of winter I have thus tended to write off regards to much in the way of wintry weather  as a result. Ireland missed out on the cold spell Britain got in the second half of Jan 2013. Of the colder winters since the 80s , 1990/91, 1995/96, 2000/01, 2005/06, 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/2011 a case of still no joy during the second half of Jan.

Edited November 8, 2017 by sundog

[summer blizzard]

With the upcoming pattern of rampant heights over the Arctic i thought i'd look to see what our analogies are (November's with an AO value >-1..

2002

2000

1998

1985

1980

1968

1965

1962

1959

1957

1955

1952

I deleted 57, 65 and 02 for having moderate to strong Nino's but this is what the winters looked like..