Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

[sparky1972]

evening all, i for one am hoping for a cold snowy frosty winter, but not holding out much hope, but what will frustrate me more is if i dont see any snow when i take my son to Lapland on the 3rd Dec for 3 nights, lol

[Summer Sun]

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Whats the NMME? and is it any good?

[Yarmy]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Whats the NMME? and is it any good?

Was always better than the Melody Maker.

[summer blizzard]

21 hours ago, mpkio2 said:

Agreed.

Nina has wavered somewhat since last month. However, Gav'sWeatherVids has a reasonable theory behind this and believes that Nina may come back stronger in the next two weeks or so:

"Ove the past week, La nina has backed off..... But watch out in the next few weeks. Will we get a fresh burst of cold waters rising up to the top, after the positive SOI we've seen in the past few weeks? We'll have to monitor it closely." - Gav's WeatherVids, Fifth Winter 2017.2018 Update.

You can watch the video here :

 

For about ten days the east Pacific saw the strongest westerly wind burst since June so i'd put it down to that. There's no reason to believe that enhanced trades won't persist overall though and indeed as Gavin notes, the SOI indicates this. 

I'm still on the moderate train. 

[Seasonality]

Interesting discussion of ENSO state above, but worth noting it probably isn't worth stressing about yet. ENSO state is just one of several factors that influence European weather and other factors can and do overwhelm the signal. It may have an impact but as winter comes closer then other factors may enter play, more of the fun of winter forecasting. Other parts of the world have more marked and significant outcomes. Check out this excellent Met Office page for more info, including some very interesting maps of weather outcomes of different ENSO states. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina/enso-impacts

[mpkio2]

17 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, id already watched Gav's update, I actually don't mind ENSO neutral, anything but strong ENSO signal either way, however, I think what's more important is that wretched +PDO signal is looking like rearing its ugly head sending the jet on a southerly track in the states and then subsequently exploding off the Eastern seaboard again, wondering if it will take a really strong Nina to change this once and for all.

A La Nina would be good for us, but ENSO neutral can be good too. I too hope those waters off west America in the Pacific ocean start to plummet and a strong -PDO signal return. I guess we'll just have to wait and see over Autumn...

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, mpkio2 said:

A La Nina would be good for us, but ENSO neutral can be good too. I too hope those waters off west America in the Pacific ocean start to plummet and a strong -PDO signal return. I guess we'll just have to wait and see over Autumn...

You're right, wait and see is where we're at right now.

[mpkio2]

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Interesting discussion of ENSO state above, but worth noting it probably isn't worth stressing about yet. ENSO state is just one of several factors that influence European weather and other factors can and do overwhelm the signal. It may have an impact but as winter comes closer then other factors may enter play, more of the fun of winter forecasting. Other parts of the world have more marked and significant outcomes. Check out this excellent Met Office page for more info, including some very interesting maps of weather outcomes of different ENSO states. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina/enso-impacts

Thanks, Seasonality! Very interesting maps and info on there. As you mentioned, nor sure indicator how La Nina may affect us this Winter (If at all, for that matter,), but has more of an effect around the world. I guess it likes the ol"cause-and-effect" theory - what affects somewhere halfway across the world can have big implications for us further down the line.

[Seasonality]

Just now, mpkio2 said:

Thanks, Seasonality! Very interesting maps and info on there. As you mentioned, nor sure indicator how La Nina may affect us this Winter (If at all, for that matter,), but has more of an effect around the world. I guess it likes the ol"cause-and-effect" theory - what affects somewhere halfway across the world can have big implications for us further down the line.

All part of the fascinating and frustrating business of forecasting weather for the UK in particular. A long narrow island on bordering an ocean on the far western edge of a continental land mass with loads of competing factors at play. I really do respect the experts for trying to make some sense of it!

[Mike Poole]

At this stage I am optimistic that we may get a more interesting winter this year than the last four. 

I reason this as follows.  Although the long range models should be taken largely with a pinch of salt this far out, there is some good news in that whereas they were pretty much screaming +NAO full stop a couple of months ago, CFS is now starting to move towards some high-latitude blocking.  Will be interested to see if GloSea5 does so too when the October runs are out. 

I also think that with the easterly QBO and reducing solar activity, it is unlikely we’ll go the full three months without some blocked periods.

Once concern I have is with the warm temperature anomaly that exists pretty much across the globe at the moment, will half decent synoptic patterns which would normally deliver snow, lead only to marginal 850 temperatures?  A concern for the south of England anyway. 

[cheeky_monkey]

For here it will be cold or very cold most of the time..mostly below freezing day and night with snow on and off..might have a flutter on it going below -40c at some point.

[Summer Sun]

The met office Ensemble mean maps have updated for October

2m and 850's temps above normal

Pressure lower than normal which will probably result in a lot of west or south westerlies

Edited October 11, 2017 by Summer Sun

[northwestsnow]

37 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The met office Ensemble mean maps have updated for October

2m and 850's temps above normal

Pressure lower than normal which will probably result in a lot of west or south westerlies

Yes saw that earlier.Clearly the metoffice will be going for a +NAO winter.

Hopefully it will be wrong.

[cheeky_monkey]

40 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The met office Ensemble mean maps have updated for October

2m and 850's temps above normal

Pressure lower than normal which will probably result in a lot of west or south westerlies

looks to be a bit below normal for here..im just in the green patch over in Western Canada (i think there is a joke in there somewhere?)

[Snowy Hibbo]

On 09/10/2017 at 21:32, karyo said:

I like the look of the December chart! 

Is the January chart available anywhere?

Even the Feb chart is not that bad as it would allow for some night frost at least.

Of course I can give it to you. I didn't have enough time to post it, but there it is. Looks fairly neutral for the UK.

[Snowy Hibbo]

On 10/10/2017 at 09:55, Summer Sun said:

 

NMME is the North American Multi Model Ensemble. It contains various models, including the CFS model, the CanSIPS models, GFDL models, NCAR model, the NASA GMAO model and the IMME model. These models, with the exception of the IMME, CFS, NASA and CanSIPS models, are probably not worth a look alone. But as the NMME contains nearly all of the North American Seasonal models, it tends to be worth a look. But as with all seasonal forecasts, they have their failures.

[summer blizzard]

14 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes saw that earlier.Clearly the metoffice will be going for a +NAO winter.

Hopefully it will be wrong.

Could be worse, it looks like the Azores is a little west of its normal position and negatively tilted. 

[sebastiaan1973]

15 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The met office Ensemble mean maps have updated for October

2m and 850's temps above normal

 

Pressure lower than normal which will probably result in a lot of west or south westerlies

 

Oh dear. What a terrible forecast. A Central Pacific La Nina in full effect.

[karyo]

15 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The met office Ensemble mean maps have updated for October

2m and 850's temps above normal

At least the pressure in the central continent is relatively low i.e. no stubborn euro high.

May allow some northwesterlies from time to time.

[Summer Sun]

JAMSTEC has updated for October

Surface air temp anomaly is shown to be above average

Precipitation anomaly is shown to be average or just below average for most maybe a touch above in the north and west

[Walsall Wood Snow]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

JAMSTEC has updated for October

Surface air temp anomaly is shown to be above average

Precipitation anomaly is shown to be average or just below average for most maybe a touch above in the north and west

Seems to show below average temps for the northern half of Ireland though funnily enough. It also shows any below average temps in the USA to be concentrated in the Upper Mid West. Don't know if that would help us or not? Greenland appears to be well below average too though. Not sure if that's good or bad for us but the precipitation chart shows below average for western Greenland, so don't know if that could indicate high pressure over there. I know that could be good. 

Edited October 12, 2017 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Weather-history]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

JAMSTEC has updated for October

Surface air temp anomaly is shown to be above average

Precipitation anomaly is shown to be average or just below average for most maybe a touch above in the north and west

I question these charts. I did last time with the Mongolia nonsense. For instance, note the anomaly variations between Baffin Island and Greenland. What could produce such a difference?

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

At least the pressure in the central continent is relatively low i.e. no stubborn euro high.

May allow some northwesterlies from time to time.

Yeah that is one straw to clutch. Temps in Greece looks below average - a snowy Winter there again?

[karyo]

17 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Yeah that is one straw to clutch. Temps in Greece looks below average - a snowy Winter there again?

Somehow Greece always manages to grab some wintry weather.