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Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Yep even in cold air it is getting to that time of year where in sunshine and light winds it can still feel quite pleasant by late morning and early afternoon

:rofl::rofl:

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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

In the next week or two we'll be at the point in late winter where being under a 'cold' HP won't mean that conditions on the ground will be cold during the day. 

For example...

The chart translates to uppers of -6 or -7 trapped under the high but ground temps are up at 6/7 by midday in some areas and it would feel pleasant in any sun, whereas in mid December you'd be close to 0 all day. Large diurnal ranges will become more and more common as we head closer to March.

It depends on the exact positioning of the high and the air source at the surface. Its almost 10 years ago that many areas had ice days from this:

CFSR_1_2008021800_1.pngCFSR_1_2008021918_2.png

Uppers look pretty average but it was cold and sunny with hard frosts.

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We had a high of -2C on 19 February 2008, but that was with freezing fog. Most days were very sunny with large diurnal ranges. On the 18th, we had a high of 6C and a low of -8C, for example, and we had some days with lows below freezing and highs in double digits (which are some of my favourite days).

Overall, February 2008 had warmer than average highs and colder than average lows, which doesn't happen very often at all. It's like March 2012 which was significantly warmer than average during the day, but average lows were colder than average.

Edited by cheese

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1 hour ago, reef said:

It depends on the exact positioning of the high and the air source at the surface. Its almost 10 years ago that many areas had ice days from this:

CFSR_1_2008021800_1.pngCFSR_1_2008021918_2.png

Uppers look pretty average but it was cold and sunny with hard frosts.

Yes it depends on the air source, an arctic or polar continental airstream can bring ice days well into March, even under brilliant sunshine, March 2013 was exceptional, we had an ice day on 11 March, the latter part of the month brought maxes in the 2-4 degree range for days on end..

I do agree though, the added heat and strength of the sun does begin to change the feel of things markedly as we move through the second half of Feb, by the end of the month there is that definate taste of spring in the air. High pressure overhead in late Feb and early March often brings severe frost.

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On 05/02/2018 at 17:39, Summer Sun said:

 

interesting how the greatest wRm anomaly is over the alps where they had exceptionally heavy snowfalls. presumably warmer but wetter so more moisture avalable for snowfall.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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On 2/4/2018 at 17:30, abbie123 said:

:rofl::rofl:

You can laugh but today proved my point quite nicely despite the cold air in place it didn't feel bad at all in the sunshine different story in the shade though

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So far this winter has probably been the best since 2012/13. Here in the midlands we've had 10 plus occasions of falling snow, massive snow event in early December and it's felt pretty damn cold even though the CET might not do it justice. Not to mention there is an imminent SSW happening which may bring further spells of cold and snow into the rest of February and maybe into March?

What does everyone else think of this winter so far???

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7 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

IMO I`ve not seen such a cold atlantic as this so staying really chilly factor,spring on hold this year.

Wow this is cold too storm.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=eu&t=6e

Ive only been weather model watching for a few years and i've never seen north westerly winds in winter blow widespread -8 across the country like they are doing this year.

gfs-1-54.png?12

Look at Sunday night. -8 uppers widespread and even -10 into Scotland from a North Westerly flow.

Edited by Kieran

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Is a prolonged cold spell on the way?

You may have heard references to a weather phenomena called 'sudden stratospheric warming'. Referring to an abrupt jump in temperatures way up in the stratosphere, it can sometimes prompt a cold, wintry spell.

Tomasz Schafernaker explains how this sudden warming can, at times, result in unusual weather patterns.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20992173

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Manchester Winter Indices

1973-74: 30 

1974-75: 26 

1975-76: 41 

1976-77 141 

1977-78: 90 

1978-79: 262 

1979-80: 66 

1980-81: 90 

1981-82: 149 

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82 

1984-85: 140

1985-86: 159

1986-87: 100

1987-88: 37

1988-89: 20

1989-90: 26

1990-91: 126

1991-92: 40

1992-93: 43

1993-94: 78

1994-95: 45

1995-96: 135

1996-97: 72

1997-98: 25

1998-99: 47

1999-00: 42

2000-01: 77

2001-02: 50

2002-03: 44

2003-04: 50

2004-05: 47

2005-06: 59

2006-07: 21

2007-08: 37

2008-09: 105

2009-10: 197

2010-11: 119

2011-12: 47

2012-13: 102

2013-14: 7

2014-15: 82

2015-16: 28

2016-17: 41

2017-18: 54 (up to 8th Feb)

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So onto the rest of winter.  This current cold spell is typical of this winter......no real widespread bite.  Still generally satisfied.

Now all the talk is around this SSW which is about to take place.  Will the response be quick, will it be beneficial for UK cold?  These questions haven’t been answered and probably can’t be without a large air of caution.  Today’s 00z ECM doesn’t want to really know but yesterday’s 12 z did....GFS didn’t want to know now it is sniffing big style.  UKMO doesn’t go far enough.

So my take is that I don’t think the response will be that rapid, not to affect us at least...although I do think we will get a cold set up from it.

I think it could take until last week of Feb (20/21) to really start to show it’s  hand for us, but reading Chio and Cat (this is their game) this is an unusual warming...so we enter interesting times.  Tam injects more caution....she’s been pretty on the money so wise for us to take this all on board.

I think we will see the main settling of HP to our NW oscillating to our N and W.  When it takes hold I think NE winds with N and E winds involved as the HP moves due to pressures from LP systems.  Now the way this winter has gone it should be cold but I won’t be surprised if we don’t pull in real deep cold, although early March as we enter Spring could bring the coldest NE’ly thrust.  There could well be times where parts of the U.K. and Ireland are sat right under the HP where it will feel pleasant by day and cold nights.  

So possibly a delayed start to Spring until late March when the SSW effects wear off.

 

BFTP

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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I don't know if later this month or into March we'll get a so called proper cold spell, but for me this Winter has played out in a way I kind of half expected. That is to say colder than the previous few but not exceptional.

Been as we had a cluster of milder Winters from 2013 I suspected we wouldn't jump from that to a very cold and snowy Winter all of a sudden and that we would go through a much more average sort of Winter first (which in my view this Winter has been) before anything much more substantial was likely to come along. 

I'm thinking along the lines of how Winter 1976/77 would have been a bit colder than its predecessors yet was succeeded by much colder ones (though I admit my knowledge of that Winter is limited) as well as 2008/09 (though admittedly that Winter gave better results to more of the populace generally than this one) before the more substantially colder and snowier spells over the next couple of Winters as well as early 2013. 

With the effects of the solar minimum perhaps taking effect next Winter and beyond this at least gives us better hope for next Winter and beyond to be more conducive for colder spells of weather.

Anyway I know a lot of people have missed out this Winter at least so far but it hasn't been a mild Winter by any means. Who knows though this SSW could give us a good taster yet later this month for Winters to come.

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Week ahead headlines on Countryfile

Unsettled
Rain and snow at times
Often windy
Milder in the south later

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On 10/02/2018 at 08:01, Weather-history said:

Manchester Winter Indices

1973-74: 30 

1974-75: 26 

1975-76: 41 

1976-77 141 

1977-78: 90 

1978-79: 262 

1979-80: 66 

1980-81: 90 

1981-82: 149 

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82 

1984-85: 140

1985-86: 159

1986-87: 100

1987-88: 37

1988-89: 20

1989-90: 26

1990-91: 126

1991-92: 40

1992-93: 43

1993-94: 78

1994-95: 45

1995-96: 135

1996-97: 72

1997-98: 25

1998-99: 47

1999-00: 42

2000-01: 77

2001-02: 50

2002-03: 44

2003-04: 50

2004-05: 47

2005-06: 59

2006-07: 21

2007-08: 37

2008-09: 105

2009-10: 197

2010-11: 119

2011-12: 47

2012-13: 102

2013-14: 7

2014-15: 82

2015-16: 28

2016-17: 41

2017-18: 54 (up to 8th Feb)

Surprised to see the winter languishing quite some way behind 2014/2015 at this stage. Indeed surprised at how well 14/15 ranked; it was a very average winter with no proper cold to speak of,but a fair bit of polar maritime air at times, very similar to this winter in many respects. Here this one so far has been colder, so yes I would have thought we would be running a bit better than 14/15. What pulled that winter into such rankings.. answers please.

I am definately ranking this winter the best for snow and cold since 12/13, although we had a heavier fall of snow in winter 15/16 - just 3 inches mind.. shows how woeful amounts of snow have been since 12/13. Plenty of 1-5cm falls that's all - still lots of time left for something more substantial. However, it is some way behind 12/13 so far, probably a bit more akin to the likes of 00/01 and 05/06. 

I've enjoyed the limited tropical maritime airstreams, and the way PM airstreams have had some real bite. 

 

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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised to see the winter languishing quite some way behind 2014/2015 at this stage. Indeed surprised at how well 14/15 ranked; it was a very average winter with no proper cold to speak of,but a fair bit of polar maritime air at times, very similar to this winter in many respects. Here this one so far has been colder, so yes I would have thought we would be running a bit better than 14/15. What pulled that winter into such rankings.. answers please.

I am definately ranking this winter the best for snow and cold since 12/13, although we had a heavier fall of snow in winter 15/16 - just 3 inches mind.. shows how woeful amounts of snow have been since 12/13. Plenty of 1-5cm falls that's all - still lots of time left for something more substantial. However, it is some way behind 12/13 so far, probably a bit more akin to the likes of 00/01 and 05/06. 

I've enjoyed the limited tropical maritime airstreams, and the way PM airstreams have had some real bite. 

 

This surprises me also. I think the results would be different here. Excuse my ignorance but I'm not really sure what Winter indices mean or what those figures actually illustrate. Please explain if you could?

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10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised to see the winter languishing quite some way behind 2014/2015 at this stage. Indeed surprised at how well 14/15 ranked; it was a very average winter with no proper cold to speak of,but a fair bit of polar maritime air at times, very similar to this winter in many respects. Here this one so far has been colder, so yes I would have thought we would be running a bit better than 14/15. What pulled that winter into such rankings.. answers please.

I am definately ranking this winter the best for snow and cold since 12/13, although we had a heavier fall of snow in winter 15/16 - just 3 inches mind.. shows how woeful amounts of snow have been since 12/13. Plenty of 1-5cm falls that's all - still lots of time left for something more substantial. However, it is some way behind 12/13 so far, probably a bit more akin to the likes of 00/01 and 05/06. 

I've enjoyed the limited tropical maritime airstreams, and the way PM airstreams have had some real bite. 

 

Lying snow made a notable difference. I caught the Boxing Day 2014 event and that cover lasted to New Year's Eve. 

Snow cover has been the problem this winter. 

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9 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

This surprises me also. I think the results would be different here. Excuse my ignorance but I'm not really sure what Winter indices mean or what those figures actually illustrate. Please explain if you could?

I have been posting these winter indices for years as with the summer ones. They are a measure oh how "wintry" a meteorological winter was. The higher the value is the severer the winter is. 1978-79 has a value of 262, 2009-10 197.

The lower the value, the least wintry it was. 2013-14 was an absolute shocker, I have never known a winter that was so devoid of anything wintry and that shows in the value of just 7. The next is 1988-89 with 20. 

The index is based on falling sleet/snow days, lying snow at 9am, air frosts, maximum temperatures.

You area has done a lot better for lying snow this winter than my area eg December 2017 snow event.

Edited by Weather-history

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