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syed2878

Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

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Reckon this weekend is the "teaser". Decent snow event for many sticks around for a few days; followed by a couple of weeks of warmth. Around the 16/17th December we get a massive dumping of 6-9inches, and ice days for several days keeping it put, in the run up to Christmas we get a once-in-a-hundred-year blizzard dropping several feet of snow to low levels, (talking sea level here) and much more to higher ground. Finally we get a massive week of blizzards in the new years period, that actually snow people into their homes and grind the rail network to a halt.

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I have to say, I'm loving the 50/50 chance of "torrential" snow in Coventry next thursday.

 

Screen Shot 2017-12-08 at 18.30.21.png

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Looks like a very non descript time-biding week next week.

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GFS (Euro hits a brick wall at the phase 7/8 border) suggests that the MJO will enter phase 8 at almost 2 standard deviations from average.

NCPE_phase_21m_full.gif

If we look to other Decembers that had a good amplitude in phase 7/8..

200110.phase.90days.gif.small.gif

199610.phase.90days.gif.small.gif

199510.phase.90days.gif.small.gif

198710.phase.90days.gif.small.gif

198310.phase.90days.gif.small.gif

197610.phase.90days.gif.small.gif

200210.phase.90days.gif.small.gif

For reference here is us (plus the GFS forecast at the top)..

rmm.phase.Last90days.gif.small.gif

Not all of the winters were good (one can see why early 96/97 was a stonker) but we can at least see that we have maintained robust MJO activity over two cycles (will need a third in later winter) and that we are the first December in a while to even attempt a phase 6-7-8 orbit and plenty of recent winters have struggled to escape the circle of death at all.

Worth adding that if you allow for us being 2 weeks fast then Jan 2016 would not be the worst match (Q1 2016 was broadly cool and dry with a late spring).

201601.phase.90days.gif.small.gif

 

 

 

Edited by summer blizzard
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On 07/12/2017 at 09:53, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Fast blast of solar winds hit Earth Dec 5th with some superb aurora borealis.  This for me affects the jetstream and thus we see adjustments to tracks and intensity of systems within 2-3 days.  I suspect too that precip levels will also notably increase.  

Longevity of this cold spell anticipated to be generally longer than initially forecast as I still anticipate Atlantic ridge rebuild mid month and for a general cold NW/N flow to be predominant up towards Xmas...added to now...longer.

There is timing for another big solar wind hit for around 22nd Dec, which leads me to an interesting Festive period as effects take 2-3 days to impact.  Jetstream expected to still be split/meandering wildly and with hints of a Scandi Block to be developing we could see further strong wintry action over Christmas.  I mention this even though I still hold Xmas week to be mobile and less cold.....the way this things are going it will be no surprise if wintryness is the flavour with mobile weather hitting cold air.

 

BFTP

We seem to have reverted to Atlantic influence to take hold on the build up to Christmas.  The cold set up has receded and I think we will now see a not so cold Xmas with us looking west.  So for me as we were on the winter LRF and I look to 2nd week of Jan for next cold spell ( mustn’t get too excited if little spells of cold come again like recently)..  It doesn’t mean uninteresting weather but mobile up and down to see this year out.

 

BFTP

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Latest WSI seasonal forecast

Quote

 

European Seasonal Outlook: December Cold in Western Europe to Relent in January, Warm/Dry Conditions Across SE Europe

Storm Track to Set Up Across Northern Europe Remainder of Winter

Andover, MA, 19 December 2017 — For the aggregate January-March period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting above-normal temperatures for most of Europe, with slightly below-normal temperatures confined to Scandinavia and parts of northwestern Russia. Precipitation is expected to be above normal across northern Europe and below normal across southern Europe.

“The cold weather in December across western Europe has arrived as expected, but it appears to be fleeting as the North Atlantic blocking pattern will fade away heading into January,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company. “While we will still see occasional cold spells during the remainder of winter, they will be focused farther north across Scandinavia, while warmer and wetter conditions will become established across the UK and much of northern mainland Europe.”

For the January-March 2018 period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following temperatures:

January

  • Nordic region – Colder than normal west, warmer than normal east
  • U.K. – Near normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

February

  • Nordic region – Warmer than normal south/west, colder than normal north/east
  • U.K. – Warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Colder than normal west, warmer than normal east

March

  • Nordic region – Colder than normal
  • U.K. – Warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far north/east
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

 

https://business.weather.com/news/seasonal-outlook-december-cold-in-western-europe-to-relent-in-january-warm-dry-conditions-across-se-europe?utm_campaign=&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

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Interestingly a guy on another forum has performed analysis to find the closest years for SST anonomolies..

tSB0w2M.png&key=cf1a5a52816c2b9577d28348

Those years saw Q1 periods to follow which yielded..

1955: - A very cold Q1 period (Apparently the closest match)

1989: - A horror show, very warm throught

1996: - Average January, Cold Feb and March

2015 - All close to or a little below average

The winter of 89 the anomaly but otherwise a signal for winter to get colder as it goes on.

..........

Regarding the MJO it's notable that Tamara is being proven correct with some early thoughts. Each wave since the October one has begun further west in the Indian Ocean and has failed to breach phase 7 with much power. This current wave is also weaker than the last.

GFSO_phase_small.gif

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On 17/12/2017 at 23:02, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

We seem to have reverted to Atlantic influence to take hold on the build up to Christmas.  The cold set up has receded and I think we will now see a not so cold Xmas with us looking west.  So for me as we were on the winter LRF and I look to 2nd week of Jan for next cold spell ( mustn’t get too excited if little spells of cold come again like recently)..  It doesn’t mean uninteresting weather but mobile up and down to see this year out.

 

BFTP

As we were, cold weather around but mobile and transitory so happy with how we go.

 

Pretty lively is a term to use over the next week to 10 days.  Interesting that HLB is anticipated to be off the table by many....I totally concur..  Next proper cold hit timed for 7th onwards, very deep LP/ segment of displaced PV.....this will be over us and then move SSE bringing polar air surging south on N the NE’ly and then E’ly....this will be a very intense affair and some very hazardous wintry weather with storm conditions to be had.  These type of set ups bring 5-7 days of volatile cold weather before ‘west to east’’ regime returns to remove the coldest air.  Models hinting at this now.

 

BFTP

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I think the NW forecast of Winter on a knife edge is very apt.I have been a member of these fantastic forums for 6 years and i have found this winter to be the most fascinating i terms of Model Watching in this time.There has already been one good snow event in early/mid december which gave anywhere North of the Thames to North Midlands/North wales upto 8-10 inchs of snow and temps down to -12 in Shrewsbury.On top of this Scotland has had a number of days of snow cover looking at the Regional Forum with some lovely pics being provided.Indeed, it is pretty much only some parts of the SE,Central Southern England and the SW that has seen little in the way of settling snow but even in my neck of the woods i have seen snow falling but sadly not settling,I really do have the feeling that even for those that have not had settling snow yet will join in the fun as January progresses and although they have been missing for a number of years now think we will have a cold spell from the East as January moves into Feb,much as IAP has alluded to.

 

All in all a great first 1/3 of winter and here*s hoping the next 2 months bring as much excitement and enjoyment as December has provided even though the potential that some of the models has shown has not been totally fulfilled!!

As a footnote i still think other factors particulary solar minimum may enhance colder weather in winters to come for NW Europe from 2020 as has been highlighted in the press this week.  

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A different story here @Hotspur61 ..

I've seen no falling snow, I've had less frosts than last December, rainfall is about to go above average. There's been 15 days with double-digit maximums, only two cold days, the rest around average. I'm running above the MetO derived temperature average for this area. There's only been two saving graces for my liking, lots of stormy conditions, and sunshine above average.

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44 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A different story here @Hotspur61 ..

I've seen no falling snow, I've had less frosts than last December, rainfall is about to go above average. There's been 15 days with double-digit maximums, only two cold days, the rest around average. I'm running above the MetO derived temperature average for this area. There's only been two saving graces for my liking, lots of stormy conditions, and sunshine above average.

Its amazing the differences that relatively short distances cause vast differences in weather in the UK. I can honestly say this December has been coldest for 5 years and although that isnt saying much working outside for a living you notice it more lol!!Lets hope Dorset and the rest of those deprived of snow so far this winter get a "channel low" that blasts all southern counties with a good dollop of snow:D

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9 hours ago, Hotspur61 said:

As a footnote i still think other factors particulary solar minimum may enhance colder weather in winters to come for NW Europe from 2020 as has been highlighted in the press this week.  

It Has Already Started, The Future Is Cold, Certainly Not Warm. :)

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This winter might be the worst one yet for my location. It’s just as wet, grey, windy and snowless as 2014/2015 but this time it’s also cold. I wouldn’t mind so much if it snowed or was bright and crisp, but endless gun-metal skies with a howling wind and lashing rain is just so depressing. 

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