Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

He's picked 3 other weak Nina years and seen a match. Hard to argue with that because we are in a classic early winter Nina pattern at present. However no two winters are the same, and our set of teleconnective drivers for this year suggest a different position moving forward to what happened in 13/14 and 14/15. Cant remember much about 93/94 to be honest!

Thanks - though I'd be OK with either of the two more recent winters he's used as analogues, there will be many whose homes and businesses were affected by the rainfall of 2013/14 (or was it 2014/15?) who I suspect wouldn't be pleased by his comparison!

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

TWO winter forecast

Overview

On balance the winter is expected to be colder and drier than recent ones with snowfall more widespread and disruptive than in any winter since 2012/13. However forecast confidence is low and background levels of warmth mean a milder outcome is still considered very possible.

Temperature

Temperatures are expected to be below the long term average over the three month period.

Precipitation

Over the three month period rainfall levels are expected to be slightly below average.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

[snowbunting]

I have had a few glasses of wine so now I am brave enough to say whats needs to be said. 

 

 

A winter to remember.... expect the unexpected. 

Nuff said.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Katrine Basso]

I have a feeling this winter will be colder than the last one but do not know by how much.  It could be average temperatures to slightly cooler than average temperatures.  There also could be some surprises this winter with some unexpected snow or frost.

Edited December 3, 2017 by Katrine Basso
missed word out

[Summer Sun]

Colder air returns later in the week with some snow showers for Scotland and the east and west coasts then slightly less cold for the weekend and beyond as we lose the northerly but still the chance of some snow

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42215687

[ArHu3]

On 25-11-2017 at 14:43, bobbydog said:

@Steve Murr i've been watching developments in the strat/trop over the past few weeks and noticed striking similarities to 1962 in the developing patterns. i came to the conclusion (using simple comparison methods, my limited technical knowledge and drawing on the knowledge of others like yourself) that we might be on the verge of a similar winter to that one but on a timescale of around ten days later, partly on the basis that the strat/trop disconnect couldn't last indefinitely- something had to give sooner or later. as of now, if the zonal winds crash as forecast, it looks like it could actually be sooner!

happy days!

(oh, and i might have to get my snow tyres before xmas!)

Maybe you are right, I found an interesting post on a dutch weather forum, where someone made composite anomalies of November preceding the mildest (hellmann<20 in de Bilt  )and harshest (hellmann >100) winters and our current setup looks strikingly familiar to the latter. 

http://www.meteo-service.nl/index.php?topic=7654483.msg1241899#msg1241899

 

 

 

Edited December 3, 2017 by ArHu3

[damianslaw]

An analogue year to this one is 95/96, though not quite the same solar wise, and ENSO was different as well as state of atlantic, but the pattern of the autumn has been an uncanny match, it was an easterly QBO and a very active hurricane season as well.

Winter 95/96 brought a cold December plenty of northerly influences thanks to strong heights over Greenland, it was especially cold in Scotland late on, there was an easterly early on and quite cold frosty weather mid-month with a battleground scenario in the lead Christmas with snow in the north, but milder in the south. Indeed it was a battle between cold and mild, starting off mild as we have now, turning much colder quickly with an easterly - this year a northerly, then generally cold dry and frosty - battleground, then cold bitterly so in the north.

January was a contrasting month, first 20 days mild and fairly wet, last 10 days very cold snowy with an easterly

Feb was generally unsettled with some cold snowy conditions at times.

Would be good if this winter was like 95/96 but without the milder first 20 days to Jan. Locally the last 7 days of December brought a run of ice days, mins down to -15 degrees, not bettered since, and then we had the 18 inch snowfall in early Feb again not bettered since - a winter only outclassed since by 09/10.

[summer blizzard]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

An analogue year to this one is 95/96, though not quite the same solar wise, and ENSO was different as well as state of atlantic, but the pattern of the autumn has been an uncanny match, it was an easterly QBO and a very active hurricane season as well.

Winter 95/96 brought a cold December plenty of northerly influences thanks to strong heights over Greenland, it was especially cold in Scotland late on, there was an easterly early on and quite cold frosty weather mid-month with a battleground scenario in the lead Christmas with snow in the north, but milder in the south. Indeed it was a battle between cold and mild, starting off mild as we have now, turning much colder quickly with an easterly - this year a northerly, then generally cold dry and frosty - battleground, then cold bitterly so in the north.

January was a contrasting month, first 20 days mild and fairly wet, last 10 days very cold snowy with an easterly

Feb was generally unsettled with some cold snowy conditions at times.

Would be good if this winter was like 95/96 but without the milder first 20 days to Jan. Locally the last 7 days of December brought a run of ice days, mins down to -15 degrees, not bettered since, and then we had the 18 inch snowfall in early Feb again not bettered since - a winter only outclassed since by 09/10.

Personally i don't expect a CET pattern like 96.

Although it looks like December will cool we appear to at least two weeks away from any severe pattern in the vein of 09 or 10 and that's assuming we develop one at all so a CET in the 3-4.5 range for this month seems likely. 

The main difference though is that based on zonal wind weakness and mjo progression i am actually starting to get seriously excited about January and suspect that the first half of January could be perhaps the most severe period since Jan 13 if not longer, hence i'd be looking at Jan to deliver the cold CET. 

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Personally i don't expect a CET pattern like 96.

Although it looks like December will cool we appear to at least two weeks away from any severe pattern in the vein of 09 or 10 and that's assuming we develop one at all so a CET in the 3-4.5 range for this month seems likely. 

The main difference though is that based on zonal wind weakness and mjo progression i am actually starting to get seriously excited about January and suspect that the first half of January could be perhaps the most severe period since Jan 13 if not longer, hence i'd be looking at Jan to deliver the cold CET. 

Are you expecting significant height developments north of scandi and towards Iceland thanks to the extension of heights from N Russia ridging down into the arctic heights as we move towards Christmas - these then enduring through much of January?

[summer blizzard]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Are you expecting significant height developments north of scandi and towards Iceland thanks to the extension of heights from N Russia ridging down into the arctic heights as we move towards Christmas - these then enduring through much of January?

Much too early to speculate on an exact outcome however i suspect we will see a build of pressure over Scandinavia with the PV fully split. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Dec update - generally happy but some important details not picked up.  This period 7-10, a definite miss as it looks tasty with arctic air.  This general cold set up to remain and persist UpTo Xmas with further Atlantic ridging and the general idea we see the models churning out.  Any Atlantic incursions are likely to be slider LPs or NW/SE axis.  The whole month is looking colder than expected and indeed I see potential for Development of a major Scandinavia block as we head to New Year, much earlier than initially thought.  However, if it does I question what influence it will have as hold at the moment that a cold period early/mid Jan is from similar setup we have and are about to have.

I’m of the mind that there are some potent surprises to come this winter, jet stream to continue with its wild meanderings

I wondered why RJS brought his Dec CET down.

BFTP

 

[Summer Sun]

Weekend and beyond

Colder in north & east

Milder to south & west

Snow?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42231565

[Pembroke Dangler]

53 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Weekend and beyond

Colder in north & east

Milder to south & west

Snow?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42231565

Yes just watched the forecast and it looks like they are leaning towards the gfs solution from the 12z with the slider focusing more on the sw maybe West Midlands. I think the 0oC isotherm will be key here South of it will get rain and north of it sleet and snow. 

[Summer Sun]

 

[summer blizzard]

On 12/3/2017 at 12:10, Katrine Basso said:

I have a feeling this winter will be colder than the last one but do not know by how much.  It could be average temperatures to slightly cooler than average temperatures.  There also could be some surprises this winter with some unexpected snow or frost.

If we are talking about Dec-Feb then the targets are the winters of 2013 and 2015, beat them and we get the third coldest winter in the last decade.

The former had a fairly average start but got progressively colder and drier as the winter progressed before the big March (interestingly here in West Yorkshire, February went 20 days without rain, one of 3 such periods between Feb-July). The later was much less impressive but went from a little above average to a little below average as winter progressed. Broke sunshine records though apparently (rather forgettable though and i regard it as a poor mans winter 06). 

If we are looking at Jan-March then 2013 cannot be defeated however we lose the Decembers of 2010 and 2015 and so we still stand a very good chance of claiming the third coldest such period in a decade since the rest were average or mild. 

[Summer Sun]

Beeb going for rain south of the Midlands on Sunday

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42258898

Edited December 6, 2017 by Summer Sun

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 04/12/2017 at 11:12, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Dec update - generally happy but some important details not picked up.  This period 7-10, a definite miss as it looks tasty with arctic air.  This general cold set up to remain and persist UpTo Xmas with further Atlantic ridging and the general idea we see the models churning out.  Any Atlantic incursions are likely to be slider LPs or NW/SE axis.  The whole month is looking colder than expected and indeed I see potential for Development of a major Scandinavia block as we head to New Year, much earlier than initially thought.  However, if it does I question what influence it will have as hold at the moment that a cold period early/mid Jan is from similar setup we have and are about to have.

I’m of the mind that there are some potent surprises to come this winter, jet stream to continue with its wild meanderings

I wondered why RJS brought his Dec CET down.

BFTP

 

Fast blast of solar winds hit Earth Dec 5th with some superb aurora borealis.  This for me affects the jetstream and thus we see adjustments to tracks and intensity of systems within 2-3 days.  I suspect too that precip levels will also notably increase.  

Longevity of this cold spell anticipated to be generally longer than initially forecast as I still anticipate Atlantic ridge rebuild mid month and for a general cold NW/N flow to be predominant up towards Xmas...added to now...longer.

There is timing for another big solar wind hit for around 22nd Dec, which leads me to an interesting Festive period as effects take 2-3 days to impact.  Jetstream expected to still be split/meandering wildly and with hints of a Scandi Block to be developing we could see further strong wintry action over Christmas.  I mention this even though I still hold Xmas week to be mobile and less cold.....the way this things are going it will be no surprise if wintryness is the flavour with mobile weather hitting cold air.

 

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

Snow warnings now out for Sunday north of the M4

 

[Decemberof2010]

Yes and nothing conservative about it either. Can see that being upgraded to amber closer to the event. They must have pretty high confidence to be using that wording this far out! Exciting weekend coming up

[Summer Sun]

Beeb not holding back with the wording " Rural communities with limited access routes could become cut off"

 

[Summer Sun]

Amber snow warning just issued

Between 04:00 Sun 10th and 18:00 Sun 10th

A spell of heavy snow is likely over parts of Wales, the Midlands and parts of Northern England on Sunday. Road, rail and air travel delays are likely, as well as stranding of vehicles and public transport cancellations. There is a good chance that some rural communities could become cut off.

https://www.metoffice.go...arnings#?date=2017-12-10

[snowflakey]

I'm really hoping that these slider lows, that seem to be taking a more progressively southern route, can somehow do some damage to the persistent high pressure over southern Europe.