Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
syed2878

Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

Recommended Posts

On ‎20‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 09:37, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Just a very early ‘feel’ for winter but no beast from east type scenario anticipated by me or prolonged very cold outbreaks (by prolonged I feel 10 or more consecutive days of comfortably below average temps). Several periods of cold shots emigrating from NW to NE quadrant through displaced PV setups to our E / NE and HP to west.  Situations like this breakdown relatively quickly but not always a toppler situation as a week of decent cold can be achieved.

Overall it may come about as an average CET type winter but notable due to the tipsy turvy temp ranges

 

 

BFTP

Hi Folks

 

Rhythm of the winter.  Cold spells to eminate from HP to W/NW and displaced PV episodes to E/NE.

 

We are staring down the barrel of HP to NW and displaced PV to NE with peak interest to watch 24-30 imo.....not bad and generally in line with ideas I've had.  Some forecasts already out there and why I put early thoughts post above.  Nothing has changed and indeed this coming period promotes more hope.

 

E QBO, weak La Nina, low solar sunspot count......factors all mentioned amongst others.

We are in a year where the sun has been spotless for 82 days to date so we head downwards.  On this basis we are nowhere near 09 and thus I don't think we will see such a winter.  However, I feel we are heading into a deeper Grand Minimum and thus we will see increased cold outbreaks as each winter progresses.

 

Nothing has changed from early thoughts, will this be a winter to remember?  For me its going to come out overall as average, what will come out of it is the swings and contrasts in temps. 

 

Models for me showing what last week of Nov will be like.  The set up has taken its time to get there (indeed we ain't there yet) but looking good.  Thus my last 10-12 days of Nov more like last week....but that could then stretch more in to early Dec than initially thought.

 

Dec

The cold dig will ease as we go through first week of Dec with a more westerly floor taking hold.  pM air for NI and Scotland more average to  mild further south.  Mid month I anticipate Atlantic amplification again with NW to N flow for the UK.  How amplified is open to question but chilly to potentially pretty cold to be had as we head towards Xmas.  Breakdown to westerly flow through Xmas period.  Snow?  Not if flow is more NW from midmonth except for favoured areas.  With luck it could be a decent northerly period with secondary LPs down west flank of main trough to NE.  Stormy period particularly for north through New Year.

 

Jan

Continuing from New Year with westerly theme.  Now I'm not looking at standard fair as there will be signs and attempts at Atlantic ridging.  Second week to midmonth I anticipate Atlantic Ridge with deep LP / displaced PV to be over UK or to the east bringing very cold pM air/arctic air southwards.  Winds from NW/N/NE.  As ever some places will fair a lot better than others...but potency could bring all of us into play.  Again after about a 10 day period a breakdown to westerly flow until the last week or so of

Back end of month to bring potentially coldest winter period.  Similar set up HP to NW Deep LP to E/NE potentially over us initially with arctic air penetrating the whole country.

 

Feb

1st 10 days of Feb to continue in that theme with potential Scandi Ridge link up.  At this stage I anticipate that the cold spell will then fade as the block retreats east for mild second half. 

 

A disturbed pattern but the rhythm of winter set by what we see in front of us in the models.  More wintry than recent years (not difficult) but not an arctic lock out by any means.  HP positioning crucial to depth of any cold plunge.  I will try and incorporate more detail as we go along but I'm generally happy with the theme.

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 19/11/2017 at 22:07, CreweCold said:

A term that a person called Ian Brown claimed he coined (which has since been disproved) - The Modern W inter

Ah, cheers Crewe! ?

Heard that term thrown around a lot on Netweather (without realising what TMW itself stood for). But I guess Ian Brown either copied or borrowed that term from someone else! Not a fan of it, really. Seems a bold claim for Ian to make when, unless you had a magical fortune-telling ball, no one knows for definite what our future Winters could hold. For all we know, we could easily go into the freezer within the next few Winters, I guess providing we were to have favourable Northern blocking.

I think, however, should we end up with less potent Easterlies or Northerlies over the years (I know some have mentioned about our Northerlies being little less cold than they used to be), and also should the High Latitude Blocking become less frequent with more of a devious Polar Vortex, then the modern Winter thing could become apparent!

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Text has come out at different sizes for some reason

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 18 November 2017 at 13:12, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

typical of TMW, Dec and Jan most westerly months of the year

Do you know that TMW was used as far back as at least 1849? 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Ah, cheers Crewe! ?

Heard that term thrown around a lot on Netweather (without realising what TMW itself stood for). But I guess Ian Brown either copied or borrowed that term from someone else! Not a fan of it, really. Seems a bold claim for Ian to make when, unless you had a magical fortune-telling ball, no one knows for definite what our future Winters could hold. For all we know, we could easily go into the freezer within the next few Winters, I guess providing we were to have favourable Northern blocking.

I think, however, should we end up with less potent Easterlies or Northerlies over the years (I know some have mentioned about our Northerlies being little less cold than they used to be), and also should the High Latitude Blocking became less frequent with more of a devious Polar Vortex, then the modern Winter thing could become apparent!

No chance.  It’s a cycle..... we have been there done it and worn the T shirt

 

BFTP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I cant trust seasons to act normally so my moneys on this:

December - Warm and moist month becoming very wet and humid over the xmas period as strong SW'lies drag up air from the Azores

January - Stormy with severe gales, with dry & cold intervals but never lasting

February - A surprise snowfall similar to that of Feb '09 during first half of month but then switch back to the mild & wet 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, 40*C said:

I cant trust seasons to act normally so my moneys on this:

December - Warm and moist month becoming very wet and humid over the xmas period as strong SW'lies drag up air from the Azores

January - Stormy with severe gales, with dry & cold intervals but never lasting

February - A surprise snowfall similar to that of Feb '09 during first half of month but then switch back to the mild & wet 

 

Quoi que!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rinse & repeat throughout the Winter. And what is that "rinse & repeat"?

Frequent cold incursions from N/NW but they'll only last 2/3 days at a time. Fairly mobile, Atlantic driven weather until end January. Nothing too mild, no real extreme cold.

There's my guess for the Winter for the UK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While waiting for my takeaway i decided to look at the top 25 spotless years for sunspots (we won't hit that list until next year but it does now look like 2017 will hit triple digits - solar minimum has de facto arrived). 

Using the 1981-2010 average as a threshold for those winters and defining warm/cold as seeing 1C or more departures here are the winter months we get (more relevant to the next two winters than this one)..

Warm: 18 (24%)

Average: 26 (34.7%)

Cold: 30 (40%)

Essentially the number of warm months is as you would likely expect how the likelyhood of a cold month increases significantly. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

While waiting for my takeaway i decided to look at the top 25 spotless years for sunspots (we won't hit that list until next year but it does now look like 2017 will hit triple digits - solar minimum has de facto arrived). 

Using the 1981-2010 average as a threshold for those winters and defining warm/cold as seeing 1C or more departures here are the winter months we get (more relevant to the next two winters than this one)..

Warm: 18 (24%)

Average: 26 (34.7%)

Cold: 30 (40%)

Essentially the number of warm months is as you would likely expect how the likelyhood of a cold month increases significantly. 

what are you having from the takeaway?...thats more interesting to me than winter prospects :drunk-emoji:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

what are you having from the takeaway?...thats more interesting to me than winter prospects :drunk-emoji:

Sushi probably....:cold:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The northern hemispheric winter base state rarely embeds itself until after christmas, but there can be clues and hints how things may pan out through late November and early December - which on average sees westerlies reach their yearly maxim, and the atlantic in full fifth gear. Hence, if we see a sluggish meandering jet, slow moving weather patterns in still a zonal pattern i.e. no block overhead or to the east, then it is always noteworthy as it suggests the default zonal ridge/trough pattern may be undone by other forces.

The current synoptical set up suggest a colder zonal pattern, blocked to an extent but not significantly so. We may well see the theme of the winter set over the next couple of weeks, cold polar maritime air winning out, possibly some NE airstream feeding at times, more so as the winter wears on, and only temporary southwesterly mild swings, which may be exceptionally shortlived and only really influence southern parts - with some balmy temps for a couple of days, much like occured early this week.

Will give some general thoughts next week, but I feel we are in a better starting position for at least some decent cold periods this winter, than any winter since 2012, the last time we saw a cold end to Nov, and cold start to Dec.. much like 2008 as well, and 2005 to a degree. Not expecting another 2009/2010, or Dec 2010. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

fingers crossed....

Best

S

 

Thanks mate. I actually understood some of that. :good:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A good analysis Steve..Arctic warming has to be a big factor and it's effects are something i guess many of us have been thinking about in recent times.The later development of the vortex and consequent weaker jet stream all to apparent this year for sure.

Every sign on current data that zonal winds are going in the negative direction so plenty of reason to be optimistic.:)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we maybe missing the biggest culprit of them all, the sun and it’s overall net effect on our climate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Hocus Pocus said:

I think we maybe missing the biggest culprit of them all, the sun and it’s overall net effect on our climate.

I have to agree. Its not only how quiet the sun has gone but both the depth and speed of the fall off. Yes the sun has gone quiet before but not to this extent in a time when we have been able to record the levels accurately. This winter and the next few years are going to tell us a lot about the true impacts of the Sun on our climate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

I think we maybe missing the biggest culprit of them all, the sun and it’s overall net effect on our climate.

Yes that is a big help as well-!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...