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Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

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Nice read there Nick for Laymans like myself :) - I think it could be 4 winters though! 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and last winter have all been poor or relatively poor...

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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Nice read there Nick for Laymans like myself :) - I think it could be 4 winters though! 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and last winter have all been poor or relatively poor...

Actually, I think you're right, it probably was 4 mild winters on the run, was thinking 2013 had some cold, but that was early on in the year thinking more about it, Jan-April that year were below par.

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20 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Actually, I think you're right, it probably was 4 mild winters on the run, was thinking 2013 had some cold, but that was early on in the year thinking more about it, Jan-April that year were below par.

March 2013 was pretty epic though, although technically spring, I know. We had 21" snow on 21-22nd, and on 24th I was wading through 4ft drifts helping some seriously hypothermic walkers. That's a night I won't forget!

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9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Actually, I think you're right, it probably was 4 mild winters on the run, was thinking 2013 had some cold, but that was early on in the year thinking more about it, Jan-April that year were below par.

You do mean that Jan-Apr 2013 was below average temp wise don't you? Jan 13 and incredibly Mar 13 (late Mar at that) were pretty spectacular ( late Mar 13 should be well up there in my opinion). In fact it had a quality I don't think I remember before it ( on account it was such a long time coming and I was only 28 at the time), being as there was actually strong gusts of icy wind in it causing drifting (nothing overly spectacular here but it was blown up corners and sloped up fences , but not far away from here there were some monster drifts) I remember been in bed at night and hearing the howling wind in the snow outside, which was a very unique sound I thought. Like something from Siberia or somewhere. If those synoptics had occurred 2 or 3 months earlier I wonder if it could have rivalled 1963?

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My ideal winter, and although it was five and a bit years before I was born - 1978/9. I think if we get a severe cold winter, that is perhaps the most "achievable" of the very cold winters than 1962/3. 

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2 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

My ideal winter, and although it was five and a bit years before I was born - 1978/9. I think if we get a severe cold winter, that is perhaps the most "achievable" of the very cold winters than 1962/3. 

Did you know 2009/10 was the coldest Winter over all since 1978/79. Which in turn makes it the second coldest Winter over all since 1962/63. Quite something really considering how most Winters have been since the late 80s.

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I think even Dec-feb 2012/13 did come in just below average though if I remember right but no individual month was severely cold though unlike March.

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Is the GLOSEA October update out yet?

It would be nice to see it change its tune.

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15 minutes ago, karyo said:

Is the GLOSEA October update out yet?

It would be nice to see it change its tune.

It will be out in the next few days.

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But remember its run very often but only updated publicly every month, so the fact that the contingency planners forecast went mild the other day suggests its been showing mild anyway.

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13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But remember its run very often but only updated publicly every month, so the fact that the contingency planners forecast went mild the other day suggests its been showing mild anyway.

Thanks feb, yes I am expecting it to continue to show mild on this update.

The worrying thing for me is that the pattern that is already establishing (high pressure over the continent, low in Iceland) is what GLOSEA has been showing in every update for late autumn and early winter.

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Looks like some posters are coming out of their Summer hibernation! :clap:

Anyway. Hopes for Winter 2016/17? Cold, snow, ice, the full works really. Something akin to 2009/10 or a Dec 2010 repeat, would be wonderful :smile: (Though highly unlikely as it may be).

A little advice before we all get hung up on model runs....
Don't take em' all too seriously, especially the long-range forecast ones.

If I remember straight, we're GLOSEA5 banging on about HLB in the G-I-N corridor and the Met Office banging on about North-easterly winds prominent through winter from their contingency planners forecast?

Look how that winter panned out! :search: OK, there was some cold temps due to a high sitting over the country through some parts in Jan, but nothing to the extent of what some forecasts thought we would get.

My point is, don't take the models seriously, not until full cross model support.

Here's to a good, cold, snowy winter! Hopefully, we'll hit the jackpot this time around! :cold::drinks: 

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13 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Did you know 2009/10 was the coldest Winter over all since 1978/79. Which in turn makes it the second coldest Winter over all since 1962/63. Quite something really considering how most Winters have been since the late 80s.

I am aware of that, but I think on the subject of achievable targets, 1978/9 is more "winnable" than 1962/3...but then again that could be as it's been 55 years and a once in a lifetime thing. 

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8 hours ago, karyo said:

Thanks feb, yes I am expecting it to continue to show mild on this update.

The worrying thing for me is that the pattern that is already establishing (high pressure over the continent, low in Iceland) is what GLOSEA has been showing in every update for late autumn and early winter.

Yes, that high pressure is already setting up shop and preparing to give us coldies months of misery before doing one in April.........

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I see Steve Murr has bought himself a few hundred feet worth of  Altitude during the closed season ready to use in winter.

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5 hours ago, nn2013 said:

I am aware of that, but I think on the subject of achievable targets, 1978/9 is more "winnable" than 1962/3...but then again that could be as it's been 55 years and a once in a lifetime thing. 

Probably so, considering 1962/63 was the coldest Winter since 1739/40 I believe. That's 177 years. So probably more like 2 or 3 lifetimes by today's standards. In fact it was probably up there with the most harshest of Winters which occurred in the LIA. Been as it was long post LIA, suggests it was very much a freak event (though fitted smugly in the slight cooling trend of the 1940s to 70s which undoubtedly aided it)  so in present times the odds of a recurrence are probably pretty slim. Then again I just have this feeling that a very epic Winter is not very distant (not saying this coming Winter necessarily but who knows). Then again thinking about it I believe it's pretty rare, to get a very cold Winter on the back of a cluster of mild ones. Usually I believe we sink into them gradually. Take for example the most recent cold cluster of 2008 to 2013. The Winter of 2008/09 was pretty good by recent standards of the time. But it was followed by 2 much harsher Winters (at least in terms of individual spells of potency) as well as another one 2 years after that (2011/12 been pretty much an anomaly in that period). The same I think could be said when cold Winters made a comeback in the late 70s. With the first Winter to mark the change (1976/77) been colder than the 5 previous Winters but was followed soon after by much more potent ones. This period lasted until the Winter of 1986/87, after which mild Winters have been mostly dominant, except for  the cooler cluster of the early to mid 90s and the colder cluster of the late 00s/early 10s. Based on this I think something more akin to 2008/09 than 1962/63 is probably a far more likely and realistic hope, though even that could be setting the bar a little too high, but I don't think anybody could deny that such a Winter would be more than welcome for us cold and snow lovers after the dross of the last 4 years.

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My favourite time of year on the forum folk like knocker would beg to differ, then again when the droves come out the bad eggs come to the surface so I can see why. I can't see it being a dry winter nor a classic, I think this winter will offer much much more than the winters which have preceded it, for my lowland London location. 

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My hopes? That the muck from Iberia stays in sodding Iberia the Azores HIgh takes a permanent vacation. Thought I could finally "relax" so to speak and the models are pushing for nigh on 20c or so by day 8. Not happy.

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Maybe a 1981-82 would be the best we can hope for. 

2010 winter is less likely. 

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2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Maybe a 1981-82 would be the best we can hope for. 

2010 winter is less likely. 

2010 will likely never be seen again. Was a freak occurrence.

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1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

2010 will likely never be seen again. Was a freak occurrence.

As the saying goes if it happened before it can happen again.:D

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6 minutes ago, booferking said:

As the saying goes if it happened before it can happen again.:D

I wouldn't want to go that extreme though, that year was bad for snow and ice. My grandparents are uneasy on their feet these days, so I'm thinking of them really. And I'll never forget a 2 hour walk I did to get the shopping in that saturday when the transport network ground to a halt...again... :nonono:

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12 hours ago, karyo said:

Thanks feb, yes I am expecting it to continue to show mild on this update.

The worrying thing for me is that the pattern that is already establishing (high pressure over the continent, low in Iceland) is what GLOSEA has been showing in every update for late autumn and early winter.

The GLOSEA is a very good model. I'd be surprised, if after consistently calling for a late autumn/winter +NAO, if the opposite of what it is showing occurs. I just can't see it.

This winter, I'm pinning my hopes on NW'ly polar maritime incursions in the lee of depressions. Not seen a proper Cheshire gap streamer for years!

Edited by CreweCold
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12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The GLOSEA is a very good model. I'd be surprised, if after consistently calling for a late autumn/winter +NAO, if the opposite of what it is showing occurs. I just can't see it.

This winter, I'm pinning my hopes on NW'ly polar maritime incursions in the lee of depressions. Not seen a proper Cheshire gap streamer for years!

We've had plenty of them no thank you not proper cold in situ. An airstream from an easterly/northeasterly source with low geopotential height anomalies in the vicinity of the UK long overdue. While drier for you, but at least precip is much more likely to be of powdery snow kind - not this wet nonsense we lowlanders have endured.

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32 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

2010 will likely never be seen again. Was a freak occurrence.

Others would know more, but the cold of the Winter of 1981/82 might have been colder than Dec 2010, but been as it was spread between 2 months (Dec and Jan) and started later in Dec than 2010 (which was cold from the very beginning) the cold didn't dominate almost the whole of a calendar month. Dec 81 (0.3c) and Jan 82 (2.6c) individually were less cold than Dec 10 (-0.7c) but I wonder if from say mid month to mid month would have had a colder CET? Anyway I don't believe Dec 2010 was that much of a freak occurrence which will likely never be seen again. Rare of course for its particular timing, but it's synoptics weren't anything unknown I believe.

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow

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