Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

[Walsall Wood Snow]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The index is based on falling sleet/snow days, lying snow at 9am, air frosts, maximum temperatures.

Thanks Weather-history, I thought it might be based on a combination of such things, I just wasn't exactly sure. Though it was obvious that the higher the figure the more wintry the Winter as you say, but I knew it couldn't be based on lying snow days alone as for example Winter 2009/10 has a figure of 197 and there's only 90 days in a meteorological Winter (91 for those ending in leap years) and it wasn't that much even (even 1962/63 wouldnt have had that many snow lying days ). Thanks for explaining.

[damianslaw]

12 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Lying snow made a notable difference. I caught the Boxing Day 2014 event and that cover lasted to New Year's Eve. 

Snow cover has been the problem this winter. 

Ok, yes you did well from the Boxing Day event - it was very localised though, we missed out hence I don't rank winter 14/15 much for lying snow. A few mornings in late Jan and early Feb only, and often thawed by lunchtime. This winter has seen a large number of days with snow falling, but your right, we haven't had many days with full snow cover.

Max temps have been quite varied with a number of very mild days, but also quite cold days as well - quite similar to winter 14/15. We've had colder minima though here. 

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Generally dry
Often cloudy
Fairly mild at first
Turning colder later

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43053057

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Indices

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26 

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30 

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41 

2016-17: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

2017-18: 65 (up to 14th Feb)

1979-80: 66 

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

2014-15: 82

1983-84: 82 

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90 

1980-81: 90 

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141 

1981-82: 149 

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262 

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Generally dry
Rain possible in NW later
Temperature uncertainties

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43067188

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Milder at first
Perhaps wet and windy later
Then the easterlies?

"When it comes to those Easterlies - it's still a case of 'when' rather than 'if'"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43080073

 

[Summer Sun]

Next week and beyond

Milder at first
Winds probably turning easterly
Becoming colder

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43092990

[damianslaw]

On 14/02/2018 at 18:03, Weather-history said:

Manchester Winter Indices

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26 

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30 

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41 

2016-17: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

2017-18: 65 (up to 14th Feb)

1979-80: 66 

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

2014-15: 82

1983-84: 82 

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90 

1980-81: 90 

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141 

1981-82: 149 

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262 

Might see it end up above 2000/2001 possibly 2014/2015 if we see the projected very cold end with snow hopefully. I am still surprised how high up the rankings 14/15 winter is, better than 93/94 and 00/01... mmm in Cumbria at least those winters beat 14/15 hands down for snow and cold.

[Summer Sun]

Further ahead

Milder at first
Easterly winds for most
Turning colder

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43100765?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

[Weather-history]

On 16/02/2018 at 22:20, damianslaw said:

Might see it end up above 2000/2001 possibly 2014/2015 if we see the projected very cold end with snow hopefully. I am still surprised how high up the rankings 14/15 winter is, better than 93/94 and 00/01... mmm in Cumbria at least those winters beat 14/15 hands down for snow and cold.

You have to remember winter 2000-01 didn't get going until after mid month December and not until Christmas Day that it really took off. The first half of December 2000 was exceptionally mild. It's like starting a race and you have a 5 second delay compared to your rivals. 

They were more days lying snow during winter 2014-15 than 2000-01 and 1993-94

[I remember Atlantic 252]

42 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

You have to remember winter 2000-01 didn't get going until after mid month December and not until Christmas Day that it really took off. The first half of December 2000 was exceptionally mild. It's like starting a race and you have a 5 second delay compared to your rivals. 

They were more days lying snow during winter 2014-15 than 2000-01 and 1993-94

best years for radio them, non stop rhythm and dance, 12 in a row, the 'new' Atlantic 252

[damianslaw]

12 hours ago, Weather-history said:

You have to remember winter 2000-01 didn't get going until after mid month December and not until Christmas Day that it really took off. The first half of December 2000 was exceptionally mild. It's like starting a race and you have a 5 second delay compared to your rivals. 

They were more days lying snow during winter 2014-15 than 2000-01 and 1993-94

Yes I remember most of December 2000 until christmas being very mild and wet. I assume your stats don't include March? Winter 93/94 though did bring some notably snowy weather at times, second half of Dec was preety snowy, Jan less so, Feb 94 very snowy with a number of days with snow lying from mid month. Winter 14/15 was though consistently average, with no notably mild weather, unlike winter 00/01 and 93/94 so I suppose overall it was more wintry, but it didn't have any particular extremes, and it is the extremes that last longest. 

[damianslaw]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Yes I remember most of December 2000 until christmas being very mild and wet. I assume your stats don't include March? Winter 93/94 though did bring some notably snowy weather at times, second half of Dec was preety snowy, Jan less so, Feb 94 very snowy with a number of days with snow lying from mid month. Winter 14/15 was though consistently average, with no notably mild weather, unlike winter 00/01 and 93/94 so I suppose overall it was more wintry, but it didn't have any particular extremes, and it is the extremes that last longest in memory. 

 

[Weather-history]

Decadal index averages.

1980s: 92.8

1990s: 65.7

2000s: 53.2

 

2010s? If winter 2018-19 returned an index of zero, the decadal average would be around 69.

 

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Possibly very cold

Risk of snow

Windy at times

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43110610

[I remember Atlantic 252]

could change on next update SS, going by last 2 EC ops

[Snowyowl9]

ECM is out on its own.

[Summer Sun]

It is the warmest day of the year so far with 14.2C at Cardiff Bute Park

[Summer Sun]

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Weather-history]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

It is the warmest day of the year so far with 14.2C at Cardiff Bute Park

As I said in your status update, that seems fairly low for the highest maximum of the year at this stage. An indication that mild sectors have not dominated.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Weather-history

[cheese]

12 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Decadal index averages.

1980s: 92.8

1990s: 65.7

2000s: 53.2

 

2010s? If winter 2018-19 returned an index of zero, the decadal average would be around 69.

 

Better than the 90s? Seems about right. 

And of course the 80s were much better than any of them.

Edited February 19, 2018 by cheese

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Indices

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26 

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30 

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41 

2016-17: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66 

1996-97: 72

2017-18: 75 (up to 25th Feb)

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

2014-15: 82

1983-84: 82 

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90 

1980-81: 90 

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141 

1981-82: 149 

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262 

 

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Indices

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26 

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30 

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41 

2016-17: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66 

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

2014-15: 82

1983-84: 82 

1982-83: 85

2017-18: 86 (up to 27th Feb)

1977-78: 90 

1980-81: 90 

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141 

1981-82: 149 

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262 

 

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Less cold
Unsettled
Risk of further snow

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43220990

[damianslaw]

11 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Winter Indices

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26 

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30 

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41 

2016-17: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66 

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

2014-15: 82

1983-84: 82 

1982-83: 85

2017-18: 86 (up to 27th Feb)

1977-78: 90 

1980-81: 90 

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141 

1981-82: 149 

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262 

 

Suddenly jumped up the rankings thanks to the recent cold snowy spell. Do your stats end today.. Pleased it has ended up higher than 14/15, its definately felt more wintry than that one, the only reason it was scoring less well not long ago was down to the shortlived very mild spells, 14/15 didn't bring particularly very mild . In terms of depth of cold and snowy spells far more than 14/15. Hope winter 18/19 makes it to the top 10..