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Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion


syed2878

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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I think we need to point out that March 2013 was truly exceptional (just like December 2010).  To say another March 2013 is round the corner is highly unlikely.

Five years ago today (my last lying snow event), we had this - remember this folks?

archives-2013-1-18-12-0.png

Oh I'm not saying a March 2013 is just around the corner at all, just simply pointing out what is possible mate. Even watered down versions of March 2013 could be very respectable for wintery weather. 

It's also subjective in terms of what you want to get out of a wintery spell. I personally don't mind not getting a prolonged cold spell if you can get a couple of heavy snowfalls over a few days of a cold snap for example. In March 2013, we didn't actually get that much snow here, but the easterly gales made it seem like a constant blizzard due to continuously whipping up some lying snow into large drifts. 

Either way, all I'm trying to say is that there is plenty of twists and turns and there will be snowfalls before the end of March. Everyone is still in the game. 

Granted the outlook as of Saturday doesn't look particularly great but it's always subject to change and there will be plenty of surprises to come 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I think we need to point out that March 2013 was truly exceptional (just like December 2010).  To say another March 2013 is round the corner is highly unlikely.

Five years ago today (my last lying snow event), we had this - remember this folks?

archives-2013-1-18-12-0.png

On man i remember that to the tee!!still have memories of that event here in leicester to this day and i never forget it!!snow started in the morning at around 9 and did not stop till the following morning!!had between 15-20cms of snow!!was on the ground for days after!!the way those cold 850s hit that atlantic low from the east was something else!!long gone but never forgotten!!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
17 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

"Been another garden path winter" ??? 

Its no 'been' anything, winter believe it or not is only mid way through ... half way!! And with the flip flopping going on recently I wouldn't put faith in any one solution post T120. Coupled with the fact that March can also deliver as a wintery month (2013 for example), leaves us with just over 10 weeks until the end of March! Literally anything can happen in that time irrespective of what the charts are showing for next week. 

Also, many eastern parts have faired alright so far, many parts of eastern Scotland have done ok this winter so far despite more attacks from the west than east but also parts of Yorkshire were on the news yesterday after wintery weather. 

Do you stop eating your dinner half way through because you think, 'ah well I've practically finished it anyway'? 

Or when you're half way round a roundabout just think 'ah well, this roundabout is over, I'll just straighten the wheels just now and drive over the pavement' 

winter isn't over!! And yes I know it's easy for me to say when I'm sitting with about 5 inches of snow outside and had 9 inches and drifting on Tuesday, but In no way is winter over. There is nothing enjoyable about coming into this thread for model discussion and looking at upcoming charts etc etc and only seeing some people going about winter being over! Winter is very much here and we're only in the heart of it. We've had many good wintery spells in February / March. And even February is still 13 days away (that's T312 in Model terms). A chart at T312 is a mile away .... there's plenty time left yet!

But with Nina very much running the show and the atmospheric sciences cancelling each other out.

Then of course perhaps a continuation of type of pattern we have endured so far this winter.

And my worry is that the pattern is like a stuck record and agree most have been enjoying the extreme weather.

But garden path has been the correct term used how many easterly and northeasterly have failed so far a fair few.

As for the last few days of model runs showing more consistently a strong jet and no northern blocking to aid towards a cold end to Jan or feb.

Not so long ago there was beautiful split vortex oh yeah and a ssw.

But to see a southwesterly flow fairly mild to, 

and dryer, is better than the horrible weather we received recently down here in the south.

And march 2013 was thanks to a  stratospheric warming.

And no la Nina.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
1 hour ago, Trom said:

Met 10 dayer

 

I'm wondering when it's going to start lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
7 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Well if you look at it, background signals in the last four winters such as the QBO, solar activity, and ENSO status never looked good for cold prospects.  2013-14 came in a solar maximum, westerly QBO - never a good combination for winter cold in the UK - but the exceptional lack of cold weather during winter 2013-14 was certainly extreme.  2014-15 looked a bit better with an easterly QBO, but still just after a solar maximum, so still suggested that a cold winter was less likely - and we got a winter that was near or a touch above normal.  2015-16, westerly QBO, strong EL Nino, a combination of which were bad for a cold winter - and we got the warmest December on record, then a Jan / Feb that remained milder than average, but not as markedly so as in Dec.  2016-17, westerly QBO, weak La Nina, declining solar activity, slightly better than 15-16 and 13-14, and we still got another milder than average winter, although Jan 2017 was closer to average, but a bit of a failed month, as HP never set up favourably to bring a really cold spell.

Winter 2017-18 all these background signals looked more favourable for the chances of cold weather this winter to be better than the last four winters, and it is just a disappointment that so far there has been no sign a significant cold spell in the UK - with the rest of January looking unlikely to come to much now, it only leaves February, which could deliver something, but then again it might not.

How do we know that "background signals" are reliable though? Against a backdrop of our little islands on edge of the Eastern (North) Atlantic surely it is virtually impossible to call our weather months in advance (or even weeks)?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

It looks like Saturday is the last widespread cold day in this current spell by Sunday milder wetter weather moves in from the west giving some snow in the north where the cold air clings on for one more day. Further south double figures quite widely 

IMG_20180118_232907691.thumb.jpg.8d3362767f6709300275a4cf7f7ce837.jpg

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

It always amazes me how easy it is to get exceptionally high maxima nowadays (at least in the winter half at least). 4 of the 6 days with maxima above 14.0C here since 1980 have all come in the last four years. Seemingly out of nowhere today has got to just 0.6C from the record high and joint 5th overall.

Meanwhile it has only dropped below -5C in January 4 times in the last 21 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

This thread from almost 10 years ago now

The 2008-2013 period was quite strange from a winter / annual CET point. There was a definite trend of more extended periods of below average temperatures, sometimes season-long. Even 2011 with its 10.70C annual CET had that well below average 14.8C summer. The other years were all pretty average or below.

Logic suggests that with just 0.8C of background warming then cold and snowy periods are only slightly less probable than before. We just seem to be stuck in a rut of a pattern where cold spills out of the US, fires up the jet and doesn't allow any favourable blocking to deliver cold to the UK. The same areas have been getting hit over and over. I'm guessing similar patterns took hold from 1910 and 1972.

The Arctic has been abnormally warm in the last couple of winters, so with all that cold spilling outwards surely we'll get hit eventually?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Feb outlook from TWO

Quote

February weather: Often cold with snow at times

Forecast Issued 01/02/2018

 

Temperature

Below average.

Precipitation

Slightly below average.

1/2 to 7/2

Unsettled but turning colder.

Rather cold and showery conditions affect all regions early on. During the middle of the week outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow spread eastwards and gradually fade away. It then becomes mostly dry and very cold, although snow showers could affect the south east and East Anglia. Towards the end of the week there is a risk of outbreaks of snow pushing westwards across much of the UK. 

8/2 to 14/2

Cold with a risk of snow.

Predominantly cold weather is expected to continue through the week. There is an ongoing risk of wintry showers as well as more persistent outbreaks of sleet and snow. Nighttime frosts develop widely during drier periods and they could be severe at times. Temperatures may begin to recover later on.


 

15/2 to 28/2

Changeable but quite cold. [Forecast confidence is low]

A rather changeable period of weather is forecast. Some milder intervals develop but further cold spells are probable and temperatures over the period as a whole are most likely to be below the seasonal average. Further spells of rain, sleet and snow are possible in all regions and nighttime frosts develop readily during the drier and quieter spells.

2

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/30-day-uk-weather-forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Further ahead

Outbreaks of rain
Turning Less cold
Gales in North

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42926762
 

Anyone hoping for lots of snow next week might well be disappointed

It's getting to the point where I would rather have a flat mild zonal pattern than these so called 'cold spells' now, they just wind me up!  Even the exceptionally mild winter of 2006/07 managed to produce too fairly potent cold snaps that delivered snow, much better than the rubbish we get subjected to now where cold snaps mean temps of 7-8C during the day and 3C at night!!

PS I hope I can look back at this post next week and laugh but I doubt it..........

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan
10 hours ago, Don said:

It's getting to the point where I would rather have a flat mild zonal pattern than these so called 'cold spells' now, they just wind me up!  Even the exceptionally mild winter of 2006/07 managed to produce too fairly potent cold snaps that delivered snow, much better than the rubbish we get subjected to now where cold snaps mean temps of 7-8C during the day and 3C at night!!

PS I hope I can look back at this post next week and laugh but I doubt it..........

Cold spells here usually mean 3c and cold rain , vile, repugnant , grim,  whats the point ?  if its going to rain it might as well be mild !   thats why I am dreading this so called cold February thats been forecast,  not good for my SAD,   roll on spring and get us out of this dark , god forsaken season   

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Fairly notable that there hasn't been a prolonged period of anything this winter. No real stormy spells, no prolonged severe cold, not even really any prolonged very mild conditions. Just a real mixed bag. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
26 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Fairly notable that there hasn't been a prolonged period of anything this winter. No real stormy spells, no prolonged severe cold, not even really any prolonged very mild conditions. Just a real mixed bag. 

hhhmmmm...well we've had 4 days running of double digit maxes at the beginning of January and the last 10 days had 6 double digit maxes including 13.7, 13.2 and 12.7 a spell I'd consider at least mild. No cold at all really down here in January, we haven't had an air frost now for 35 days and counting...

I'd say that mixed bag consists of 50% mild, 15% cold/coldish and the rest near average.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
On 02/02/2018 at 21:26, Don said:

It's getting to the point where I would rather have a flat mild zonal pattern than these so called 'cold spells' now, they just wind me up!  Even the exceptionally mild winter of 2006/07 managed to produce too fairly potent cold snaps that delivered snow, much better than the rubbish we get subjected to now where cold snaps mean temps of 7-8C during the day and 3C at night!!

PS I hope I can look back at this post next week and laugh but I doubt it..........

This winter has delivered snowfalls and has delivered far more snow overall than 2006-07.  Some areas always do better than others, always happens, even in the great winters. Take the Western Isles they won't remember 1946-47 as a snowfest. 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

In the next week or two we'll be at the point in late winter where being under a 'cold' HP won't mean that conditions on the ground will be cold during the day. 

For example...

h500slp.png

The chart translates to uppers of -6 or -7 trapped under the high but ground temps are up at 6/7 by midday in some areas and it would feel pleasant in any sun, whereas in mid December you'd be close to 0 all day. Large diurnal ranges will become more and more common as we head closer to March.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

In the next week or two we'll be at the point in late winter where being under a 'cold' HP won't mean that conditions on the ground will be cold during the day. 

For example...

h500slp.png

The chart translates to uppers of -6 or -7 trapped under the high but ground temps are up at 6/7 by midday in some areas and it would feel pleasant in any sun, whereas in mid December you'd be close to 0 all day. Large diurnal ranges will become more and more common as we head closer to March.

Yep even in cold air it is getting to that time of year where in sunshine and light winds it can still feel quite pleasant by late morning and early afternoon

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