Jump to content
syed2878

Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

Recommended Posts

I'm thinking with some pointers (some models and expwrts)towards a cold,nw America,Canadian winter and warmer ne America (if it comes to fruition).A quiter Atlantic will prevail.

Also the very active hurricane season mixing the warmer air further north with the Arctic presently warmer in places.

Because of this I predict a colder than average start but need to get the hlb in the right place (I think this will be prevalent through to late December. Also a stormy period developing into Jan and continuing for me as the pv gathers pace and hlb loses its grip but I think will return into Feb as the(not as strong as usual pv)will relinquish it's grip to a decent warming event.

In summary I will go colder and dryer 1st 3rd followed by a stormy,milder mid period (transitionary snow event or two?).

Followed by the coldest part of winter for me with winds mainly from the east,ne. For this part precipitation above average.(Thinking Feb 91 type event when record warmth was to be had in ne USA).

They are my amateur thought.

Ps.

Also looked through the archives with similar patterns (not the ones professionals do lol).

As mentioned in the above.

Edited by joggs
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LaNina is getting underway in the Pacific at the moment, and depending on whether the Agung volcano in Bali erupts i'm expecting to see a similar 08/09 winter scenario with dominant Easterlies as the NAO is disrupted through the Stratospheric warming. Nothing worse than winter's where it's just cloudy, cold, and rain for weeks on end. At least when the white-stuff falls it provides a little entertainment.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Be nice even if we don't get any severe or noteworthy cold to our shores just to see a bit more Pm or Am air behind depressions which has also been lacking over recent winters. All we seem to experience over recent winters when the Atlantic is fairly prevalent is Tm air 'butting' up against high pressure to the south east over the continent and mild to very mild temperatures. Even in milder winters of the 70's/80' and 90's we experienced some Pm air masses but seems to be fairly rare over the last 5 years.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, SteveB said:

One thing is for sure, I'm not taking any notice what so ever on any stupid FI nonsense the models show this year.

Last year hurt a lot, and I think lessons have been learnt as far as model watching goes.

Post of the thread! How many times did we have the carrot dangled, only for it to soon disappear after one or two runs?

For me I will be looking no further than T+180 at the most, and also keeping an eye on the Met Office "longer range" 16-30 day updates.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

for what its worth here my alanogue compsites(weak La Nina,declining Solar,-QBO descending,weak neg.PDO)

winter overall.png

best analogue december.png

best analogue january.png

beste analogues february.png

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A 2010 with some of 1965 Thrown in for good measure.On a serious note I Have not got a clue.

C.S

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sidney and the gang are not busy storing nuts so one of the main teleconnections is looking favorable for some pleasant warm zephyrs from the south west

sid.thumb.jpg.def6484fe412ec327b71ff9bc77edad7.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any hopes and expectations have been totally smashed to pieces by the perpetual autumns of the past few years.

Wait and see ....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Just to get us in the mood ☺

 

absolutely brilliant, mind you I cannot work out where the videos were taken?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

absolutely brilliant, mind you I cannot work out where the videos were taken?

Chelmorton and Taddington? 

Edited by knocker
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, knocker said:

Sidney and the gang are not busy storing nuts so one of the main teleconnections is looking favorable for some pleasant warm zephyrs from the south west

sid.thumb.jpg.def6484fe412ec327b71ff9bc77edad7.jpg

That a hybrid? Not seen one like that before.

The red variety is most common here. No grey ones. Every so often, I do see a red one that seems to have mutated into something resembling black, but can still see the ginger underneath.

I'll try to grab a photo.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Chelmorton and Taddington? 

That's correct Knocker ☺

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

That's correct Knocker ☺

I read the comments on You Tube Polar :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, jvenge said:

That a hybrid? Not seen one like that before.

The red variety is most common here. No grey ones. Every so often, I do see a red one that seems to have mutated into something resembling black, but can still see the ginger underneath.

I'll try to grab a photo.

The brown/red markings can be quite noticeable at times although I probably made them slightly incorrect by fiddling around.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, knocker said:

The brown/red markings can be quite noticeable at times although I probably made them slightly incorrect by fiddling around.

 

You embarrassed poor Sydney? How could you!:shok:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You embarrassed poor Sydney? How could you!:shok:

Not a problem as he is always amenable to the odd bribe or two

59d61d6b2cf3c_sid2.thumb.jpg.4352c7f8daafdb88414cac28dd40ffbf.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After last years promise, updates of NLB that never materialised, I ain't got a scooby!!  But as ever I'll be on board the Netweather Winter Roller coaster for the ride.

Great Forum all year obviously,  but in the winter there is no better place to be Forum wise. 

BRING IT ON!! 

59d61eebd14a9_winterha.thumb.jpg.3127867f4ad968313148aea34a3f3ad2.jpg

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There have been some absolute ripper runs from the cfs for nov and dec recently.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that this winter we shall see a very snowy Christmas and new year , ( fingers and everything else crossed  ) , but seriously what I’m hoping for  is just one prolonged cold period with a couple of decent snowfalls Put in to boot , from memory my children 6 and 2 have next to no memories of what a great ( to some ) period of winter weather is like , the most they have had the joy to make is  a snowman that was  no bigger than my hand from a inch of slushy snow  .

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How this coming Winter may turn out I've no idea. But like others I'm hoping that the mild with little to no snow Winters we've been going through since 2013 will break soon and hopefully enter another period like 2008 to 2013 when frigid temperatures and snow made a bit of a comeback. There is some speculation by some that the end of this decade and into the next could be fruitful. I suppose its pretty safe to say that the mid 2010s are over and it's now the late 2010s, so that at best gives me a maybe feeling about this Winter been an improvement on what we've had these last few years, but on the other hand it might be yet another dud. 

Put it like this, I remember placing my hopes on last Winter based on the fact that at that point, we'd just gone through 3 mild Winters, and comparing it to other times in the past this had happened such as between the colder Winters of 1986/87 and 1990/91, as well as 1996/97 and 2000/01. However I also know there was a period of 5 mild Winters in succession between those of 1970/71 and 1976/77, so if that was repeated we wouldn't get another cold Winter until 2018/19. Let's just hope that the succeeding mild Winters we've been going through since 2012/13 is confined to the 4 and this coming one isn't added to them.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well let's hope it will be better than the last 4 which have quite honestly been dire. Seems ages ago now since early 2013. Of course I would like a repeat of 09/10 which was pretty epic with decent snows from Dec into Feb. Just a fantastic Winter. Nov/Dec 2010 was good but it fizzled out after Boxing day leaving a mostly mild middle and 2nd half of Winter. Sort of like Winter having nothing left in the tank after a brutal early start.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There have been some absolute ripper runs from the cfs for nov and dec recently.

There were some great runs last year on the CFS around November time for some screaming easterlies in January and then if by magic  in December piff paff poof (not sexist) they were gone!

Edited by Froze were the Days
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Seasonality said:

My advice for people keeping their sanity is to ignore all those day 10 ecm charts that show snowmageddon, treat them as entertainment only. 

No chance , heating on tonight ...bring back the insanity. :) 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×