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Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion


syed2878

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
On 14/11/2017 at 12:59, sebastiaan1973 said:

2 very different forecasts. I'll take No2 please. Their interpretation of the NAO signature could not be more at odds!

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Nice to see the meto forecasting temps avg or just below as we head into Winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
6 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Nice to see the meto forecasting temps avg or just below as we head into Winter.

What do you think? To me at least, looking at ENSO, events in the strat and how the MJO is, I'm thinking zonal is coming in the next few weeks.

Of course, just because it is zonal, doesn't mean it is mild.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset

Some nice cold, bright, frosty days an nights would  be great  I must admit a bit of snow wouldn't go amiss, especially for the youngsters.:) 

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Posted
  • Location: newcastle,north east
  • Weather Preferences: severe cold
  • Location: newcastle,north east

which is the most reliable charts, GFS or ECMWF, as they are giving different forecasts for next week

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
7 minutes ago, irishlad69 said:

which is the most reliable charts, GFS or ECMWF, as they are giving different forecasts for next week

ECMWF is top dog. UKMO is second. GFS third. This can change week to week, though and you will always find examples of where the GFS was right over the ECM, for example. So, on the balance of probability, at any given time, the ECMWF is more likely to be correct than the GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
On 11/15/2017 at 16:02, Catacol said:

2 very different forecasts. I'll take No2 please. Their interpretation of the NAO signature could not be more at odds!

If either forecast where to come to fruition then both would produce a very cold snowy winter for my location..not that it is not cold and snowy already :cold:

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

This is rather interesting. Need more updates - but that green line shouldnt really be heading towards the 5-8 orbit in a Nina state. Shows the ongoing disconnect between ocean and atmosphere in the pacific helping sustain a global pattern that is generally disconnected. Is this the east based Nina with neutral tendency in region 4 sustaining some amplitude? Vortex repositioning to Siberia also set to create a bump in AAM via himalayan torque in tag team effect with (probably temporary) appearance of low pressure in the north pacific and a bit of US driven torque also.

gwo_90d.gif

Nothing to jump up and down and be hugely excited about yet.... but stuff like this shows that interest is to be had in the extended period especially if the disconnect can be sustained as long as possible thanks perhaps to the current shape of the Nina pattern and the slow start to the season for the tropospheric vortex. It would be gold dust if the next MJO phase could begin while that disconnect were still in force - I'd start to be become properly excited in the possibility of some mid to late winter blocking setups if that happens...

... but we wont know that for a while yet. Could still see a Nina pattern and a wimpy MJO bumping up against an established trop vortex. 

All to play for. Still think December will be uninteresting for the most part. 

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Mild wet and windy sounds good?

Just wondering whats good about that chris

typical of TMW, Dec and Jan most westerly months of the year

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Mild wet and windy sounds good?

Just wondering whats good about that chris

Better than cold and snow, which causes many more problems (obviously I'm not referring to severe problems due to rainfall).  Anyway, southern England is in a drought; we need some rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Better than cold and snow, which causes many more problems (obviously I'm not referring to severe problems due to rainfall).  Anyway, southern England is in a drought; we need some rain.

kind of for TMW, agree 44m asl south will not produce proper snow nowadays, sleet/wet snow melt before 11am the best, I prefer dry to wet though by far, but if I lived on a hill oop norf, then I'd be looking out for PM air and southerly lows

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

kind of for TMW, agree 44m asl south will not produce proper snow nowadays, sleet/wet snow melt before 11am the best, I prefer dry to wet though by far, but if I lived on a hill oop norf, then I'd be looking out for PM air and southerly lows

I meant in general, though it's even worse in TMW given that, as you say, it's usually insufficient to at least compensate for the downsides with the (few) upsides.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
23 hours ago, jvenge said:

ECMWF is top dog. UKMO is second. GFS third. This can change week to week, though and you will always find examples of where the GFS was right over the ECM, for example. So, on the balance of probability, at any given time, the ECMWF is more likely to be correct than the GFS.

Isn't this dependent on the season, where ec tends to overamplify and leads to a lot of blocking in fi

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
4 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

Isn't this dependent on the season, where ec tends to overamplify and leads to a lot of blocking in fi

Nah. ECM is top each season. Week to week you might find some variation, though. It really is top dog.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
5 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Better than cold and snow, which causes many more problems (obviously I'm not referring to severe problems due to rainfall).  Anyway, southern England is in a drought; we need some rain.

Feel free to have some of our rain, it'll allow my trench foot to improve a bit.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Methinks it's time to issue an early season BOLO:

The subject is white, about six inches tall, and hasn't been seen since 2013...:D

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Methinks it's time to issue an early season BOLO:

The subject is white, about six inches tall, and hasn't been seen since 2013...:D

Not seen him, last thing I saw like that in 2013 was 24 " ?

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
On 18/11/2017 at 13:22, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I meant in general, though it's even worse in TMW given that, as you say, it's usually insufficient to at least compensate for the downsides with the (few) upsides.

I’m just curious, what does TMW stand for by the way?

As for Winter hopes and predictions, I’d personally love for this Winter to be filled with a lot of white stuff, but have a feeling it won’t be a particularly cold one, (despite some favourable factors such as the Easterly QBO). Would love to be in for a surprise though!

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Typos
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

I’m just curious, what does TMW stand for by the way?

As for Winter hopes and predictions, I’d personally love for this Winter to be filled with a lot of white stuff, but have a feeling it won’t be a particularly cold one, (despite some favourable factors such as the Easterly QBO). Would love to be in for a surprise though! 

 

A term that a person called Ian Brown claimed he coined (which has since been disproved) - The Modern W inter

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