Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

[Summer Sun]

Turning Colder
Gales
Wintry showers

Snow next week?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42534867

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ok folks Jan update.  

 

I think the upcoming cold cold spell will be about 12 days and will have periods of potency.  GFS is way too progressive but on the right track down the line with Atlantic battle....orientation the key.  The plunge with N, NE and E winds are on.....and the E winds will last 5-7 days with a lot of turbulent and snowy activity as the west tries to come in.  Now, although the Atlantic fights back... this will be the MAIN winter event.  Massive plunge of PV into Atlantic onto us bringing frigid pM air becoming arctic air for last 7 days of Jan.  Speed of breaking block down up for grabs but this will be a major weather event......backed by NE and E winds into Feb

Caveat.....current cold spell due to orientation could blend the cold spell to deeper cold spell....or we could have SW winds in west and SE winds in East.

BFTP

Edited January 3, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

11 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Ok folks Jan update.  

 

I think the upcoming cold cold spell will be about 12 days and will have periods of potency.  GFS is way too progressive but on the right track down the line with Atlantic battle....orientation the key.  The plunge with N, NE and E winds are on.....and the E winds will last 5-7 days with a lot of turbulent and snowy activity as the west tries to come in.  Now, although the Atlantic fights back... this will be the MAIN winter event.  Massive plunge of PV into Atlantic onto us bringing frigid pM air becoming arctic air for last 7 days of Jan.  Speed of breaking block down up for grabs but this will be a major weather event......backed by NE and E winds into Feb

Caveat.....current cold spell due to orientation could blend the cold spell to deeper cold spell....or we could have SW winds in west and SE winds in East.

BFTP

To clarify in bold, when the Atlantic fights back and wins out the last week of Jan will be main winter event into early Feb.....not this current period ahead of us

 

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

Cold last night but not quite as cold as was expected with a low of -9.8

 

[Summer Sun]

10 Day Trend - A settled start before a big change next week

 

[Summer Sun]

Blog update from John Hammond

Quote

 

It’s the high ground of northwest Britain – where the wintry squalls will be quite incessant – that I am most concerned about. Feet of snow could fall on the mountains, with much larger drifts, thanks to the strong winds. However I also expect some large conurbations of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northwestern parts of England and Wales to be affected by some disruptive snow showers at times. The wintry weather (and a flurry of hype) will make the headlines.

Further south and east, there will actually be plenty of sunshine, but even here some wintry showers are expected. Nobody is immune from a dusting of snow and overnight frost will be widespread.

For those hoping for just a brief cold snap, there’s not particularly good news on the horizon for the end of the week. There are the first signs of the jet stream developing a large and important kink in mid-Atlantic. In the process, those westerly winds will begin turn into northerlies.

So by the weekend I expect frosts to be quite hard, especially over snow cover. But although there will still be some wintry showers, plenty of fine and crisp weather is expected.

 

https://weathertrending.com/2018/01/12/on-the-horizon-brace/

[Summer Sun]

Snow and Ice warnings issued for Scotland and NI

• Central, Tayside & Fife
• Grampian
• Highlands & Eilean Siar
• Northern Ireland
• Orkney & Shetland
• SW Scotland, Lothian Borders
• Strathclyde

Between 18:00 Mon 15th and 23:55 Tue 16th

Frequent and heavy hail and snow showers are likely to affect many parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland from Monday evening, continuing for much of the day on Tuesday. Travel delays on roads are possible, with a small chance of cancellations to public transport. There is a small chance that power cuts will occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected. In addition some roads and pavements may become icy, increasing the chance of injuries from slips and falls.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Snow showers will be heaviest and most frequent across western Scotland. The largest accumulations of snow will be over high ground with over 10 cm building up above 200 metres. At low levels, accumulations of the order 2-5 cm will be more typical. Showers will also be accompanied by hail and lightning at times, particularly across northern and western Scotland. Here, there is potential for disruption to power supplies from frequent lightning strikes. Strong winds are also expected, with the potential for temporary blizzard conditions and drifting of lying snow, particularly over high ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-01-15

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Yes I agree its another tragic episode in the many that befall the UK when any cold synoptics manage to break through into the modelling.

The ECM particularly was more interested but even some of the other outputs still promised more than whats likely to arrive.

Although some parts of the UK have seen some snow for many its been another useless winter with expectations so low that a centimetre of slush is greeted as the next 62/63!

Of course in the UK you have to have lowish expectations given its difficult to get the right synoptics but really it's not like a Mission to Mars.

It should still be possible to get a decent spell with snow and not slush.

We now have to follow the MJO and urge it onto the more favourable phases and hope this can deliver.

Anyway I'm a bit grumpy as you can tell!

 

This year is almost certain to be the planet's warmest year on record that lacks any influence from El Niño, and will likely be the second or third warmest year in recorded history. Earth's four warmest years of the last century-plus are virtually certain to be the four years from 2014 through 2017........when it was marginal we still had a chance maybe early Dec.. Or maybe late Feb.. Usually a good chance (and still do really) but with this report, I know it's general but you must see the odds slipping away.. You can't expect things to happen like they used to...or the synoptics not change a little...even when the energy is decreased nothing seems to be in the right place.. (for us to experience a longish spell of cold...) Directly we lose our winter.. The synoptics will be there.. Late April.. May...early October you know the score..those setups don't fall in to winter anymore or they do but not as frequent..seems the losing battle of our prelonged cold spells in winter is becoming the normal...even people who live on hills and mountains or whatever up north and that must see a difference from there previous generation on length of very cold spells.. Sorry a bit climatey and a bit nostalgic maybe but reports and data don't lie 

[North-Easterly Blast]

As we face another winter unlikely to deliver a significant cold spell to the UK - with the rest of January now looking unlikely to deliver much.  OK there is still February that could deliver something, but then again it might not.  Yet with only a weak La Nina, declining solar activity, and an easterly QBO it is now looking as though we could still be facing another milder than average winter for the UK.  Background signals for winter 2017-18 like solar activity, the easterly QBO, and a weak La Nina all looked promising for a better chance of cold weather this winter in the UK than in at least any winter since 2012-13.  I have to say that these sort of background signals have never looked good for the chances of cold weather in the last four winters. 

I think that this week we have certainly seen cold polar maritime zonality (a rarity in winters over the last 30 years), with a number of areas further north particularly with elevation seeing snowfall, but this week has certainly been very lacksture in cold zonality, compared to the sort of cold zonal spells in January 1984.

Surely an easterly QBO, declining solar activity, and a weak phase of La Nina should have brought a good chance that this current winter would at least be a significant improvement on the last four winters in the UK from a cold perspective.  So what is going wrong with winter 2017-18?  With the background signals this year if we cannot at least manage the coldest winter since 2012-13, then a question has to be asked is; are cold winters on the scale of 2009-10, intense cold spells like December 2010, or are even relatively cold winters on the scale of 2012-13 possible in the UK any more.

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

With the background signals this year if we cannot at least manage the coldest winter since 2012-13, then a question has to be asked is; are cold winters on the scale of 2009-10, intense cold spells like December 2010, or are even relatively cold winters on the scale of 2012-13 possible in the UK any more.

You make it sound like they were a generation ago!

This time 10 years ago, you were probably asking the exact same questions. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

As we face another winter unlikely to deliver a significant cold spell to the UK - with the rest of January now looking unlikely to deliver much.  OK there is still February that could deliver something, but then again it might not.  Yet with only a weak La Nina, declining solar activity, and an easterly QBO it is now looking as though we could still be facing another milder than average winter for the UK.  Background signals for winter 2017-18 like solar activity, the easterly QBO, and a weak La Nina all looked promising for a better chance of cold weather this winter in the UK than in at least any winter since 2012-13.  I have to say that these sort of background signals have never looked good for the chances of cold weather in the last four winters. 

I think that this week we have certainly seen cold polar maritime zonality (a rarity in winters over the last 30 years), with a number of areas further north particularly with elevation seeing snowfall, but this week has certainly been very lacksture in cold zonality, compared to the sort of cold zonal spells in January 1984.

Surely an easterly QBO, declining solar activity, and a weak phase of La Nina should have brought a good chance that this current winter would at least be a significant improvement on the last four winters in the UK from a cold perspective.  So what is going wrong with winter 2017-18?  With the background signals this year if we cannot at least manage the coldest winter since 2012-13, then a question has to be asked is; are cold winters on the scale of 2009-10, intense cold spells like December 2010, or are even relatively cold winters on the scale of 2012-13 possible in the UK any more.

This winter never looked a goer from the off. Most of the long range seasonal models pointed to an uninspiring winter. I personally think we have got off relatively lightly to what we could have seen. Last winter was about 10x more boring than this one. 

Still, I feel completely underwhelmed with how this winter has panned out thus far.

[cyclonic happiness]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This winter never looked a goer from the off. Most of the long range seasonal models pointed to an uninspiring winter. I personally think we have got off relatively lightly to what we could have seen. Last winter was about 10x more boring than this one. 

Still, I feel completely underwhelmed with how this winter has panned out thus far.

IDK, we've had 5 snowfalls in this part of the Midlands so far , and two were pretty good (one with 2" and one with 6", and a 3 dustings) we've had at least 15 frosts too and a couple of good storms. I'm actually happy with this winter thus far, and if it goes mild southwesterlies from now on, i'll still be happy :-)

[Froze were the Days]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This winter never looked a goer from the off. Most of the long range seasonal models pointed to an uninspiring winter. I personally think we have got off relatively lightly to what we could have seen. Last winter was about 10x more boring than this one. 

Still, I feel completely underwhelmed with how this winter has panned out thus far.

10 x more boring but in the south east January will certainly have been colder last winter compared to this one...which has been 'boring' in these parts...so far only 2 slight ground frosts here, pathetic!

I should also point out as the above post details, big variations again for such a tiny Island, we've had 2 mornings of slushy snow (back in December) and the second of those was negligible. 

Edited January 17, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

IDK, we've had 5 snowfalls in this part of the Midlands so far , and two were pretty good (one with 2" and one with 6", and a 3 dustings) we've had at least 15 frosts too and a couple of good storms. I'm actually happy with this winter thus far, and if it goes mild southwesterlies from now on, i'll still be happy :-)

The Midlands got VERY lucky in December. I saw a couple of inches so certainly more than any winter in the past 4/5 years from that perspective. 

However, to put this into further perspective, the winters of the 2000's which were deemed as poor at the time look positively baltic compared to what has unfolded over the past few years. Even in the wretched winter of 06/07 I saw 10cm...even if it was transient.

 

[daz_4]

I was trying to find a poetic way to describe this winter and I've come up with "absolutely disgusting piece of sh*t."

The weather has changed and I guess I can't really expect much with Central Europe quickly moving towards mediterranean climate.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I mean, in typical Cheshire gap streamer scenarios I saw more snow in the 2000s than what we see during supposed 'main events' these days.

[Jason M]

Winters over (for ever) 

 

[damianslaw]

Oh dear its all doom and gloom in here, winters over posts on the 17 January... I'm certainly not calling cards on the winter delivering any further cold weather at least, and snow. To put the winter in perspective so far, it has been the coldest since 12/13 and we have had quite a bit of cold weather at times, some snow for many, decent frosts, little in the way of heavy rain or exceptional lengthy spells of mild weather, yes at times it has been mild and wet, but certainly not dire.. 

I guess the reason for pessimism is because the models are showing a more milder zonal flow, but the winter so far has been very episodic, mild spells interspersed with colder spells, and there is nothing to suggest the milder zonal theme will dominate the rest of the winter. Indeed as we move through the latter part of any winter, the atlantic tends to lose its power and blocked or colder northerly/easterly spells have a far better chance of verifying.

Please none of this doom and gloom winter over posts clogging up this thread. 

[Hotspur62]

Well we are at winters mid point and so far i think it is the best winter since 2012-13.Whilst my neck of the woods has seen little in the way of snow many parts of England Wales NI and Scotland have and as we speak another snow event is unfolding as we speak for Northern Parts..I think that what is disappointing is that the Models,particulary the ECM has shown so many potentially great charts showing quite a few cold and potentially snowy events that have either failed to materlise or have been substantially watered down.Maybe someone can answer something that i dont know the answer  to-I thought La Nina Winters were generally more likely to enhance the UK chances of colder winters and more extensive blocking and whilst this winter has been colder than last 4 or 5 it has not been colder than the LT average i believe.Is it because it is an East/Central  Based La Nina and would it have been better if it would have been a West/Central Based La Nina?I hope this makes sense and hope someone can give me a few pointers on this .

Anyway,lets see what the second half of winter holds  and i hope it holds as much interest for coldies as the first half has but with a better final product lol!! 

[Bristawl Si]

Winter 17/18 reminds me of many 70s Winters. A North/South split. Down here '71-'77 were 'Virtually No Snow' jobs.

[stewfox]

I wrote a poem about the Easterly that never delivers

I heard that you're settled down in Siberia
That you found a way and you're in Greece now.
I heard that your dreams came true in FI .
Guess ECM gave you things I didn't give to you.

Old friend, why are you so shy? Get your ar** to the UK
Ain't like you to hold back the cold or hide from the light. yeah right

I hate to turn up out of the blue uninvited but they aint no blue showing in GFS
But I couldn't stay away, I couldn't fight it I need a Easterly before winters end.
I had hoped you'd see my face and that you'd be reminded thats i need a Easterly
That for me it isn't over until April

Never mind, I'll find someone like you ..a watered down northerly
I wish nothing but the best for you too in Greece
Don't forget me, I beg maybe in 2018/19 winter
I'll remember you said,

Sometimes it a failed Easterly hurts instead,

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

11 hours ago, CreweCold said:

This winter never looked a goer from the off. Most of the long range seasonal models pointed to an uninspiring winter. I personally think we have got off relatively lightly to what we could have seen. Last winter was about 10x more boring than this one. 

Still, I feel completely underwhelmed with how this winter has panned out thus far.

Well if you look at it, background signals in the last four winters such as the QBO, solar activity, and ENSO status never looked good for cold prospects.  2013-14 came in a solar maximum, westerly QBO - never a good combination for winter cold in the UK - but the exceptional lack of cold weather during winter 2013-14 was certainly extreme.  2014-15 looked a bit better with an easterly QBO, but still just after a solar maximum, so still suggested that a cold winter was less likely - and we got a winter that was near or a touch above normal.  2015-16, westerly QBO, strong EL Nino, a combination of which were bad for a cold winter - and we got the warmest December on record, then a Jan / Feb that remained milder than average, but not as markedly so as in Dec.  2016-17, westerly QBO, weak La Nina, declining solar activity, slightly better than 15-16 and 13-14, and we still got another milder than average winter, although Jan 2017 was closer to average, but a bit of a failed month, as HP never set up favourably to bring a really cold spell.

Winter 2017-18 all these background signals looked more favourable for the chances of cold weather this winter to be better than the last four winters, and it is just a disappointment that so far there has been no sign a significant cold spell in the UK - with the rest of January looking unlikely to come to much now, it only leaves February, which could deliver something, but then again it might not.

[MR EXTREMES]

Well I'm pretty certain now that spring warmth is on the way.

But thankfully a little more settled here in the south.

Let me know when la Nina is dead in the Pacific water.

Every winter since 2013 been absolutely exhausting chasing crap weather charts.

If your looking for a easterly or northeasterly then from what the models are showing today yesterday are pretty much nothing.

Sustained euro heights southwesterly flow and always more unsettled in the north with milder weather returning here,

with possible cooler westerly flow at times as weather system cross to the north.

Towel was thrown in as la Nina and good winter don't go hand in hand unless you live further north.

Looking forward to spring now been another garden path winter.

Anyway hope the rest of the country is enjoying the amazing wintry weather spare thought for the Eastern and southern parts of UK.

But absolutely can't wait for spring and summer.

 

Ao beautifully negative

But the nao boring slightly positive.

Mjo is muted by la Nina.

Nina wins again.

[Ruzzi]

19 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Well I'm pretty certain now that spring warmth is on the way.

But thankfully a little more settled here in the south.

Let me know when la Nina is dead in the Pacific water.

Every winter since 2013 been absolutely exhausting chasing crap weather charts.

If your looking for a easterly or northeasterly then from what the models are showing today yesterday are pretty much nothing.

Sustained euro heights southwesterly flow and always more unsettled in the north with milder weather returning here,

with possible cooler westerly flow at times as weather system cross to the north.

Towel was thrown in as la Nina and good winter don't go hand in hand unless you live further north.

Looking forward to spring now been another garden path winter.

Anyway hope the rest of the country is enjoying the amazing wintry weather spare thought for the Eastern and southern parts of UK.

But absolutely can't wait for spring and summer.

 

Ao beautifully negative

But the nao boring slightly positive.

Mjo is muted by la Nina.

Nina wins again.

"Been another garden path winter" ??? 

Its no 'been' anything, winter believe it or not is only mid way through ... half way!! And with the flip flopping going on recently I wouldn't put faith in any one solution post T120. Coupled with the fact that March can also deliver as a wintery month (2013 for example), leaves us with just over 10 weeks until the end of March! Literally anything can happen in that time irrespective of what the charts are showing for next week. 

Also, many eastern parts have faired alright so far, many parts of eastern Scotland have done ok this winter so far despite more attacks from the west than east but also parts of Yorkshire were on the news yesterday after wintery weather. 

Do you stop eating your dinner half way through because you think, 'ah well I've practically finished it anyway'? 

Or when you're half way round a roundabout just think 'ah well, this roundabout is over, I'll just straighten the wheels just now and drive over the pavement' 

winter isn't over!! And yes I know it's easy for me to say when I'm sitting with about 5 inches of snow outside and had 9 inches and drifting on Tuesday, but In no way is winter over. There is nothing enjoyable about coming into this thread for model discussion and looking at upcoming charts etc etc and only seeing some people going about winter being over! Winter is very much here and we're only in the heart of it. We've had many good wintery spells in February / March. And even February is still 13 days away (that's T312 in Model terms). A chart at T312 is a mile away .... there's plenty time left yet!

[mulzy]

19 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

"Been another garden path winter" ??? 

Its no 'been' anything, winter believe it or not is only mid way through ... half way!! And with the flip flopping going on recently I wouldn't put faith in any one solution post T120. Coupled with the fact that March can also deliver as a wintery month (2013 for example), leaves us with just over 10 weeks until the end of March! Literally anything can happen in that time irrespective of what the charts are showing for next week. 

Also, many eastern parts have faired alright so far, many parts of eastern Scotland have done ok this winter so far despite more attacks from the west than east but also parts of Yorkshire were on the news yesterday after wintery weather. 

Do you stop eating your dinner half way through because you think, 'ah well I've practically finished it anyway'? 

Or when you're half way round a roundabout just think 'ah well, this roundabout is over, I'll just straighten the wheels just now and drive over the pavement' 

winter isn't over!! And yes I know it's easy for me to say when I'm sitting with about 5 inches of snow outside and had 9 inches and drifting on Tuesday, but In no way is winter over. There is nothing enjoyable about coming into this thread for model discussion and looking at upcoming charts etc etc and only seeing some people going about winter being over! Winter is very much here and we're only in the heart of it. We've had many good wintery spells in February / March. And even February is still 13 days away (that's T312 in Model terms). A chart at T312 is a mile away .... there's plenty time left yet!

I think we need to point out that March 2013 was truly exceptional (just like December 2010).  To say another March 2013 is round the corner is highly unlikely.

Five years ago today (my last lying snow event), we had this - remember this folks?

Edited January 18, 2018 by mulzy