Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

[mountain shadow]

10 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Could the volcanic eruption at Bali have an effect on the upcoming winter ?

In a word... No.

[weirpig]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Could the volcanic eruption at Bali have an effect on the upcoming winter ?

Hard to say  

Global temperatures dropped last time Agung erupted

Mount Agung last erupted in 1963 after lying dormant for decades.

When it erupted, experts said global atmospheric temperatures dropped by 0.1-0.4 degrees Celsius.

That might not sound like much, but it's quite a significant drop when you consider the last ice age occurred when global temperatures were only 5C cooler than they are now.

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Could the volcanic eruption at Bali have an effect on the upcoming winter ?

Krakatoa erupted the August of 1883 but the following year was the warmest year for the CET for over a decade. So no immediate impact of cooling by Krakatoa eruption for the UK. 

Edited November 27, 2017 by Weather-history

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Krakatoa erupted the August of 1883 but the following year was the warmest year for the CET for over a decade. So no immediate impact of cooling by Krakatoa eruption for the UK. 

Krakatoa East of Java?

[Seasonality]

34 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Hard to say  

Global temperatures dropped last time Agung erupted

Mount Agung last erupted in 1963 after lying dormant for decades.

When it erupted, experts said global atmospheric temperatures dropped by 0.1-0.4 degrees Celsius.

That might not sound like much, but it's quite a significant drop when you consider the last ice age occurred when global temperatures were only 5C cooler than they are now.

At risk of turning this into the volcanic eruption discussion thread I'd think the key is the magnitude of the eruption and the injection of aerosols into the upper atmosphere. 

[mountain shadow]

15 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Krakatoa erupted the August of 1883 but the following year was the warmest year for the CET for over a decade. So no immediate impact of cooling by Krakatoa eruption for the UK. 

Krakatoa was also a cataclysmic eruption with the island blown apart, this eruption is pretty standard by comparison and will have zero impact on this Winter in the Northern hemisphere. 

[Weather-history]

Another gem uploaded on YouTube, this from 10th January 1982 with a weather forecast by Jim Bacon

 

[Summer Sun]

Less cold this weekend

Turning colder to start next week

Low chance of it turning milder later next week before turning colder again

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42160912

[I remember Atlantic 252]

02:43, he means right side of the jetstream 

[DAVID SNOW]

32 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

02:43, he means right side of the jetstream 

"Wrong side of the jet stream, meaning cold.

How about cut out the propaganda and mild bias, and let the paying public decide for themselves !

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

"Wrong side of the jet stream, meaning cold.

How about cut out the propaganda and mild bias, and let the paying public decide for themselves !

I think it has more to do with the individual presenting the video than any party line.

[irishlad69]

i like the look of this, i realise its two weeks out but would be great

[irishlad69]

how can two charts be so different and which one will be correct

[Summer Sun]

Mild start next week then turning colder later in the week with some wintry showers

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42175391

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Mild start next week then turning colder later in the week with some wintry showers

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42175391

Not backing the ECM, though that forecast was earlier today.

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Not backing the ECM, though that forecast was earlier today.

The BBC forecasts are recorded every evening so the vid I posted will take into consideration most of the 12z's

[Summer Sun]

Our dear old friend Ian Brown has tweeted Fergie

[sebastiaan1973]

 

[damianslaw]

Perhaps a winter very different in synoptics to many recently. I don't think we will see a particularly extreme winter, but perhaps the emphasis will be more on colder settled conditions than wet mild ones. 

Much will depend on the position and strength of the jetstream, for a long time now, we have seen periods dominated by stuck repeating patterns, and if the current one persists through the winter season - highly probable, then we will stay more on the colder side, and it won't be especially rampant, hence less in the way of unsettled weather.

Breaking things down a bit :

December - generally cold, but with some milder more unsettled blips at times, early on and then perhaps in the run up to christmas, interspersed by lengthier colder more drier periods, with chance of some snow, as northerlies dig in for a time.

January - Greatest chance of more widespread wintry conditions, heights may transfer to the NE at some stage, with resultant NE/E airstream, more likely later in the month than earlier on which could be quite mild with heights to the SW.

February - Cold and fairly blocked, heights over the country, lots of frost, less in the way of snow.

So certainly a greater chance of being colder than the last four, but perhaps quite frustrating for those wanting severe bouts of cold and snow, but there will be plenty of cold weather around, and some snow at times.

[Summer Sun]

Further ahead

Milder in south

Unsettled further north

Return of the cold?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42190368

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Well here we are, it's Winter 2017/18 and it's already cold. 

[damianslaw]

Looking at some analogues, winter 95/96 and 05/06 are both cropping up, both brought cold sometimes very cold conditions, 95/96 much more so than 05/06, the latter wan't far off being very cold, but the synoptics didn't quite come off.

Would love a repeat of 95/96, a cold wintry December here, and the second half of the winter was cold and snowy throughout, only first half of Jan was mild.

Winter 05/06 was ok, lots of dry cold frosty weather, but little snow. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

95/96 was good here, and 96/97, and 97/98, then went to pot

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

On 11/30/2017 at 14:26, sebastiaan1973 said:

 

Although I'm struggling to understand the technicalities of this Tweet (I have no idea what a "Modern Miller B/CAD/overrunning event precursor" is), but, based on the winters referenced, wouldn't that suggest a mild and/or stormy winter for the UK?

[Catacol]

12 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Although I'm struggling to understand the technicalities of this Tweet (I have no idea what a "Modern Miller B/CAD/overrunning event precursor" is), but, based on the winters referenced, wouldn't that suggest a mild and/or stormy winter for the UK?

He's picked 3 other weak Nina years and seen a match. Hard to argue with that because we are in a classic early winter Nina pattern at present. However no two winters are the same, and our set of teleconnective drivers for this year suggest a different position moving forward to what happened in 13/14 and 14/15. Cant remember much about 93/94 to be honest!