Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

[NeilN]

I just hope that’s a rogue model run for December. Can’t be living with that again. 

[northwestsnow]

3 hours ago, nn2013 said:

I just hope that’s a rogue model run for December. Can’t be living with that again. 

Hopefully, although my baseline is so low now for winters that id take a couple of days of snowcover glady.

The Atalantic and the strength of the northern jet are just ridiculous - any blocking just gets blown away before it can get established.That said i dont put any faith in any lRF.

[Guest]

After the last 2 winters spent down in the Peak District without a single snow day ive made the move 450 miles further north and higher up in a desperate attempt to at least see some form of snow.. last weekend we had some sleet briefly mixed in with the showers but now November is here I'm getting more and more expectant of what is to come, my Neighbour told me the last few years have not been so good and it only snowed 3 times last winter... I nearly bloody fell over if that's a bad winter I cant wait till we get a proper snowy one then... some local folk still talk of the winter of 2010 when snow lay for 100 days... now that's what I'm hoping for this winter...

[sebastiaan1973]

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2155-z.pdf 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50432-griteaters-winter-outlook-17-18/

He expects an EP La Nina which would favor a negative NAO.

1) December Forecast: -PNA pattern. Western U.S. trough and Eastern U.S. ridge. Good pattern in general for early snow at western ski resorts.

2) January Forecast: In my view, January holds the most promise for the development of a -EPO, -AO/NAO pattern, with possible bowl-shaped trough over the lower 48 at times.

3) February Forecast: There is a Cool ENSO tendency for the North Pacific Ridge to retrograde farther to the west into the Bering Sea during the month of February, opening up the door for increased southeast U.S. ridging.

4) March Forecast: I’m calling for a similar pattern to March last winter, but slightly cooler, with cool anomalies draped across the northern U.S and warm anomalies to the south and southwest.

5) As previously mentioned, It’s my belief that we will see a few quality AO/NAO blocking episodes this winter that are more than transient in nature.

[mpkio2]

2 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2155-z.pdf 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50432-griteaters-winter-outlook-17-18/

He expects an EP La Nina which would favor a negative NAO.

1) December Forecast: -PNA pattern. Western U.S. trough and Eastern U.S. ridge. Good pattern in general for early snow at western ski resorts.

2) January Forecast: In my view, January holds the most promise for the development of a -EPO, -AO/NAO pattern, with possible bowl-shaped trough over the lower 48 at times.

3) February Forecast: There is a Cool ENSO tendency for the North Pacific Ridge to retrograde farther to the west into the Bering Sea during the month of February, opening up the door for increased southeast U.S. ridging.

4) March Forecast: I’m calling for a similar pattern to March last winter, but slightly cooler, with cool anomalies draped across the northern U.S and warm anomalies to the south and southwest.

5) As previously mentioned, It’s my belief that we will see a few quality AO/NAO blocking episodes this winter that are more than transient in nature.

Read the whole thing, and many other early Winter forecasts for this season, especially the American ones.

I must say, most are sound in their methodology and thinking, with much hard-worked research, evidently, put into them.

So far the idea of an EP Weak La Nina, -QBO and Low Solar Output seems to be favored by many and, when you look at the composite for some matching analog years, you can't help but smile at what may be in store (If you want cold, that is,).

CFS v2 has been spilling out some potential runs with end of November looking quite "chilly" and, dare I say, "cold"

Take a look at this beauty of a run (Just for fun though! ):
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=1&run=11

Things are looking optimistic, but cautioned and controlled expectations must be kept in check.

[SMU]

Evening All-

Most coldies are now coming out of hibernation - taking a big yawn & stretch then heading to their favourite links to start to formulate their cunning plan to present why this year 'feels different'.....

Its about now we usually get an influx of forecasts from across the piste ( even the globe ) for the winter based on all manner of thought processes- some with alleged sound meterological reasoning & some from the good ol fashioned 'gut'...

For me I take a very passive approach now - there is no-one or no model still that can provide any decent level of accuracy for winter so as far as I can see its all taken with a nice pinch if salt- Especially when it comes to forecasting 'cold' blocking. Even the most sophisticated models with every bit of up to data like Glosea / EC46 are generally woeful in terms of accuracy. 

Looking at how things are changing over the globe I doubt anyone will get any grip of things any time soon & heres why:

Every winter forecast you see is derived from apparent good reasoning however all the data is historic & analogue based & there in lies the problem.

From a historic point of view what was valid in say 1950-1990 - even possibly 1990 -2010 may be totally the opposite in this day & age... 

Sure there are the 'generic' constants like the stratosphere or El Nino / La Nina / sunspots / QBO etc that operate generally around a pendulum of consistency - so from this based on historic analogues we can try to visualise what 'may' be the case this winter or even the 'probabilitlies' of say a stratospheric Warming event & possible strength of the vortex - however the reality is that every year we enter these days will have a new dimension being thrown in around polar heat + reduced ice coverage & probable skewed Oct / Nov snowfall extents ( due to increased moisture in the air ) - The SAI- I wouldnt really get to excited about it.

Why? I would say its all about 'weighting' & changing paradigms -

These new feedbacks which are being triggered by the rate at which the pole is warming essentially means that all models / all analogues & all derived forecasts are destined for failure based on the rationale that what happened before will happen again in the same way.

Sure some may be co-incidentally correct however if you run every forecast over the next 10 years I doubt anyone or any model would land over 50%.

Its hard to conceptualise the rate of change & the rate of influence the polar warming has but needless to say it will 100% have its own feedback around pressure patterns around the pole & also across 50-80N -

There may be good news within this, as long term the feedbacks may work in our favour however in the short term the most immediate issue will be with the fact that Northerlies will lack the sting they once used to - If we was to run the reanalysis for the dewpoint & RH anomalies over the pole in the last 5 -10 years we would see a steady increase -

For our little 'patch' a 1 degree increase in the dewpoints out of the pole would probably net correlate to a 100M rise in the snowline... or looking at it another way instead of seeing snow to sealevel in strong Northerlies you may only see rain & sleet -  this thought process is of course quite generic as theres no 2 northerlies alike however as a rule of thumb that snowline is going upwards !!!

That leaves us pinning more hope on Easterlies - which in more recent years we have tended to see scandi blocking 'Relocate' slightly further East & south - leaving us a little in no mans land with the cold stopping short in West germany or sliding south into France.

 

So this winter it will be very much for the here & now for forecasts with shorter windows of review for the higher level drivers like the strat - ie week 2 & 3, then sub 2 week windows for local metrics like AO/NAO

Is there cause for optimism this winter - well I would say only 'cautious' ones as we can see that the former big hitter global drivers like the

*QBO

* NINO phase

* Sunspot phase 

All seem to be alligned to work in favour of a weaker jet which is great..

Just remember these arent the be all & end all of global drivers these days-

Polar heat anomalies & feedbacks relating how they work 'for' or 'against' blocking Over the polar field will be the real viewing point this winter...

This winter more so than ever will be one of total known unknowns & as many unknown unknowns....

let battle commence....

S

[Allseasons-Si]

Here is your 37,000th like,congrats

and a very nice read

[feb1991blizzard]

These are the sort of analogues I hope to see except as a seasonal average.

[Allseasons-Si]

Latest from Gavs weather vids,the end of the month sounds promising but will it deliver?

 

[jvenge]

Not to be a party pooper, but just a quick reminder to those looking at analogues. La Nina is not ideal for prolonged cold in the UK. Yes, there are winters such as 95/96, but you really need to look into detail to see what dampened the "normal" La Nina effects in those winters. A weak El Nino would be the most favorable, as it would make extended blocking conditions more likely and potentially cut off the atlantic lows. No guarantees, even with that :-) Other conditions such as low solar and EQBO are favorable. 

08/09 is a good example of a fairly average winter, that could have been so much more if a weak to mild El Nino was on offer, as opposed to La Nina. 

Just to keep in mind, average is by no means warm and a washout. I'm also not saying there are no chances of prolonged cold, just that what is on offer presently doesn't really favour that for the UK as a strong candidate. I also don't think anything particularly mild (last two years) is likely.

And as always, understand how averages and anomalies come to be and what happens in between to arrive at those.

[Catacol]

4 hours ago, jvenge said:

Not to be a party pooper, but just a quick reminder to those looking at analogues. La Nina is not ideal for prolonged cold in the UK. Yes, there are winters such as 95/96, but you really need to look into detail to see what dampened the "normal" La Nina effects in those winters. A weak El Nino would be the most favorable, as it would make extended blocking conditions more likely and potentially cut off the atlantic lows. No guarantees, even with that :-) Other conditions such as low solar and EQBO are favorable. 

08/09 is a good example of a fairly average winter, that could have been so much more if a weak to mild El Nino was on offer, as opposed to La Nina. 

Just to keep in mind, average is by no means warm and a washout. I'm also not saying there are no chances of prolonged cold, just that what is on offer presently doesn't really favour that for the UK as a strong candidate. I also don't think anything particularly mild (last two years) is likely.

And as always, understand how averages and anomalies come to be and what happens in between to arrive at those.

Agreed - and the depth of La Nina will be critical. However more knowledgeable folk than I across the pond are suggesting any Nina impact with be east based... and in this case there is a stronger link with -AO and -NAO tendencies. In addition Nina may only bottom out at around -1 before returning back towards neutral - perhaps less of a factor.

If the temp profile around the date line can hold up then chances for some convection impact increase. Both Huffman and Griteater are posting composites with Euro low and Greenland high possible. RJS has chipped in with a "colder than 75% of winters from the last 50 years" comment too. No cause to be gloomy - yet.

Edited November 4, 2017 by Catacol

[comet]

Nice post from Mr Murr, although Imho I think perhaps he is overstating the polar warming and the effects this would have on latitudes further south. Give or take a degree a long fetch northerly would I think still produce similar to what it did 30, 40 50 years ago and the same would apply to East/ north easterlies.

We are though most certainly no closer to accurate long range forecasting.

[Delka]

Does anybody have the link to that 9 month weather charts website, lost my bookmark to it awhile ago but it was great fun to look at

[johnholmes]

On 11/2/2017 at 22:40, Paul said:

Interesting blog from @Nick Finnis 

Early thoughts on winter 2017/2018 - a colder winter than recent years

Netweather winter forecast due out around mid-month.....

A very good read, many thanks Nick

[reef]

29 minutes ago, comet said:

Nice post from Mr Murr, although Imho I think perhaps he is overstating the polar warming and the effects this would have on latitudes further south. Give or take a degree a long fetch northerly would I think still produce similar to what it did 30, 40 50 years ago and the same would apply to East/ north easterlies.

We are though most certainly no closer to accurate long range forecasting.

Living somewhere that always benefited from northerlies it has definitely been a major issue in recent years. The polar air is slightly warmer, travelling over a longer sea track due to a retreated ice edge and being modified by SSTs much warmer than normal on its way here. Its a triple whammy, assuming the jet relents long enough to allow a northerly in the first place!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Some good points made.  I too believe analogues used from 20th century are likely to have more busts in them in current winters.  The current solar state is bringing us into low cycle levels not seen for 100 years plus and if it continues as anticipated, not seen since Dalton or Maunder times.  That for me is preventing any match from winters of 20th century, there are/have been similarities in parts......yes.......but quite sizeable deviations too.  How many close but no cigar episodes have we seen over recent years......way too many in frequency.  I wish I knew what causes them to happen.

BFTP

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, reef said:

Living somewhere that always benefited from northerlies it has definitely been a major issue in recent years. The polar air is slightly warmer, travelling over a longer sea track due to a retreated ice edge and being modified by SSTs much warmer than normal on its way here. Its a triple whammy, assuming the jet relents long enough to allow a northerly in the first place!

I've noticed that too, reef: ever since 2012-13, any long-fetch northerlies that have reached this far south, have been barely cold enough for snow to fall - let alone to settle...

Let's hope that this winter brings something a wee bit different...2C colder would just about do?

Edited November 4, 2017 by Ed Stone

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Some good points made.  I too believe analogues used from 20th century are likely to have more busts in them in current winters.  The current solar state is bringing us into low cycle levels not seen for 100 years plus and if it continues as anticipated, not seen since Dalton or Maunder times.  That for me is preventing any match from winters of 20th century, there are/have been similarities in parts......yes.......but quite sizeable deviations too.  How many close but no cigar episodes have we seen over recent years......way too many in frequency.  I wish I knew what causes them to happen.

BFTP

Welcome back Fred...only a few more reemergences needed and we'll have The Return of The Magnificent Seven! 

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I've noticed that too, reef: ever since 2012-13, any long-fetch northerlies that have reached this far south, have been barely cold enough for snow to fall - let alone to settle...

Let's hope that this winter brings something a wee bit different...2C colder would just about do?

But have we had a "long fetch" northerly since 2012/13? From memory I haven't seen a proper northerly since when I lived in York, which is over 6 years ago now.

[comet]

3 hours ago, reef said:

Living somewhere that always benefited from northerlies it has definitely been a major issue in recent years. The polar air is slightly warmer, travelling over a longer sea track due to a retreated ice edge and being modified by SSTs much warmer than normal on its way here. Its a triple whammy, assuming the jet relents long enough to allow a northerly in the first place!

I had replied to your post and will try to do so again. As vizzy 2004 has also said, in the last several years we have not seen a long fetch northerly from well inside the Arctic circle for comparison purposes. let's hope this winter will change that.

[lassie23]

Hope it snows in my back yard....a lot, saying that, the ice cream van has just pulled up outside my house in November

[Daniel*]

5 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

But have we had a "long fetch" northerly since 2012/13? From memory I haven't seen a proper northerly since when I lived in York, which is over 6 years ago now.

We have but these have coincided in spring, not optimum was it last April or the year before. It snowed at the end of April in London I've never known seeing snow so late. We can get still get potent northerlies as that showed, what we have struggled in recent years is northerly airstreams being quickly cut off by toppling ridges. Undoubtedly if there was a sustained outbreak of northerlies, then it would be much more impressive, cold would build. Furthermore, polar continental feed still packs a very big punch parts of eastern/southeastern Europe had their coldest winter since 1987 so certainly unlike northerlies which have lessened in 'strength', this is not true for off the continent cold our time will come for severe cold whether this winter who knows.

Edited November 4, 2017 by Daniel*

[lassie23]

In all seriousness though, another poor winter looks to be on the cards with very little cold and zero snow, as predicted by the OFI

[Weather-history]

Members say 4 poor winter is a row since 2013-14 but I don't think that 2014-15 was that bad for my location. Not the greatest but better than the other 3 by a bit.

[NorthYorksWeather]

29 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Members say 4 poor winter is a row since 2013-14 but I don't think that 2014-15 was that bad for my location. Not the greatest but better than the other 3 by a bit.

14/15 wasn't so bad here either, we saw 3 separate snowfalls but they were only around an inch at a time. Hoping for better than that this winter though!

All the snowfalls that winter were from measly northerly topplers too and I was living at 45m asl at the time, so if we managed a "proper" northerly in winter I'm sure we can still get a good dumping.

Edited November 4, 2017 by vizzy2004