Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

The models are showing a cold start to November.......snow in the first week of November

Yes November looks primed to start settled with a cold north/ north wester and hopefully dry conditions.

[Windchime72]

It does look tasty for some good old fashion autumn halloween weather/bonfire night. Cold crisp dry weather, high pressure with a light north west drift. Temps 0c or below under clear skies at night.

[sundog]

9 minutes ago, Windchime72 said:

It does look tasty for some good old fashion autumn halloween weather/bonfire night. Cold crisp dry weather, high pressure with a light north west drift. Temps 0c or below under clear skies at night.

Certainly looks like we are in with a decent chance of that happening this yr. My fav weather type for the time of yr. Havent had a chilly halloween since 2012.

[Windchime72]

10 minutes ago, sundog said:

Certainly looks like we are in with a decent chance of that happening this yr. My fav weather type for the time of yr. Havent had a chilly halloween since 2012.

I agree Sundog, my fav weather too, helps the mood too, more invigorating to get out and do stuff aswell.

Edited October 23, 2017 by Windchime72

[irishlad69]

Hi All

 

been a while, glad to be back, i see the charts are pointing to a cold scenario  from this weekend, lets hope they are true to form

[Summer Sun]

The weather company November to January outlook

Quote

 

December Expected to be Coldest Month of Winter, Relative to Normal

Andover, MA, 23 October 2017 — For the aggregate November-January period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across most of the eastern half of Europe, with slightly below-normal temperatures and wetter conditions confined to parts of western Europe.

“As we head into late October and early November, there is significant uncertainty with regards to the degree of North Atlantic blocking,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company. “For now, we are playing it fairly conservative and are forecasting a relatively mild November with generally warm and wet conditions across northern/western Europe. Looking further ahead, many of the climate models are depicting a very mild start to winter, but we are seeing enough evidence so that we do expect December to be colder-than-normal across NW Europe. As we head deeper into the winter, we expect the early colder weather to fade a bit.”

For the November-January 2017 period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following temperatures:

November

Nordic region – Warmer than normal

U.K. – Slightly warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal west, colder east

December

Nordic region – Colder than normal

U.K. – Colder than normal

Northern Mainland – Colder than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

January

Nordic region – Warmer than normal

U.K. – Colder than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder west

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder west

 

https://business.weather.com/news/seasonal-outlook-the-weather-company-says-europe-is-in-for-another-mild-month-in-november-before-colder-emerges?utm_campaign=&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

[summer blizzard]

I thought you guys might like this. So a guy elsewhere (obviously far more capable than i) has actually found a way to match as many areas of the ocean as normal to various telleconections and came up with this (the forecast cold spell in the US will also mean his October forecast will come out pretty well)..

And the years he likes to make that of course are generally good.. 

1932 (x2), 1943 (x3), 1944 (x3), 1996 (x3), 2005 (x3), 2007 (x3), 2008 (x2), 2012 (x1)

From a CET point of view the only bad winter is 2007/2008 (though it mainly Jan and Feb that were bad). It's also worth looking at 43 and 44 because there's some evidence that the QBO cycle may have failed after the Nino of 41 as well, 1932 has been an abnormal match for a tonne of stuff including the hurricane season. 

The general gist is that Dec and Jan see high pressure over Scandi and the Arctic, pattern breaks in Feb and we see a weak westerly pattern.

[Snowy L]

Im not even going to dream big. 1 day of snow accumulating to 3-4 inches would be a better winter than the last 4 combined.

[Jimmyh]

For what its worth... I will probably be shot down in flames here, but the feeling I have is this is not going to be your typical snooze fest of warm mild temperatures. Already showing is a split vortex. now on the Outlook thread there is a beautiful graph showing a split Vortex. what we don't want is temp anomalies with Ne USA and Canada aligning the jet our way. Now what has convinced me of this is the last two named storms. ok one was an ex hurricane/tropical storm. What I noticed about these two were the angle of the jet.

Now I for one cannot remember a single storm over the last couple of years that actually originated SW and went n/e. all of the bore fests 2013/14 and so on was nw-se or west to east not on the angle of trajectory of the last two storms. I think the hurricane season has done us and our little island the world of good by pumping warm air up into the arctic.

It shall be interesting to see how this manifests itself and to move stuff from FI to reliable would be really nice. Looks like some of that has happened as we are entering a pattern change. just my loose theory :-)

[bluearmy]

tough to make predictions but I would advise anyone looking for a wintry first half of winter to be cheering on any pacific invests to become typhoons and urging them to recurve north

[Azazel]

God I hate Winter but if we are going to have one, I want to do it properly. Can't stand months of wind, rain and 12-13 degrees.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

21 minutes ago, Azazel said:

God I hate Winter but if we are going to have one, I want to do it properly. Can't stand months of wind, rain and 12-13 degrees.

yes, I hate 'winter' too, always hated autumn, now Dec to Feb is just extension of autumn

[Azazel]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yes, I hate 'winter' too, always hated autumn, now Dec to Feb is just extension of autumn

It is indeed and then when we have a disappointing summer on-top of all that, it just prolongs the misery.

 

Some snow would be nice as it's now been approaching 4 years since i've seen any laying. Cold and calm (maybe the odd blizzard for fun) I can deal with, but not wind and rain. Yuck.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

30 minutes ago, Azazel said:

It is indeed and then when we have a disappointing summer on-top of all that, it just prolongs the misery.

 

Some snow would be nice as it's now been approaching 4 years since i've seen any laying. Cold and calm (maybe the odd blizzard for fun) I can deal with, but not wind and rain. Yuck.

As many know, true snow becoming a thing of the past (south), since approx '98/'99, the odd exception, but winters have changed

[lassie23]

Snow please often, thank you!

[NorthYorksWeather]

Hoping that snow will not be confined to 400m + in North Yorkshire unlike last winter. A repeat of last November wouldn't go a miss where high ground in the Yorkshire Dales has 2 weeks of lying snow, aslong as the snow line drops to the valleys at least a handful of times.

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

As many know, true snow becoming a thing of the past (south), since approx '98/'99, the odd exception, but winters have changed

So you keep telling us...

C.S

[Bullseye]

Further to summer blizzards post regarding 1932. I should add the from information/conversations from over on Twitter, 1932 is becoming a year that is increasingly popping up as an analog for upcoming winter for mainly following reasons: easterly qbo, active hurricane season (ranks in top 10 for total hurricanes within a season like this year), solar cycle 16 in quiet spell in '32 and probably the most important and interesting link between both years is 1932/33 being the 2nd year La nina like 2017 (per seasonal models forecast). Also to note was 1930/31 falling under strong el nino category before multi-year la nina set in, again this can be compared to 2015 El nino (although understandably 2015 feel under super nino). Last point to note was AMO phase generally the same as 2017. All this information can be found in American forums and Twitter too.

Top pic shows solar activity during 1932, bottom pic shows the ENSO pattern prior to 1932.

Edited October 25, 2017 by Bullseye

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I've never really heard what Winter 1932/33 was like, though I would have guessed it was mild, been in the 1930s. Looking at the monthly CET's though, we have Dec= 5.7c, Jan= 2.2c and Feb= 4.3c. So it must have been a fairly cold January at least. In fact it has the same CET as Jan 47, but as we know February was the month that Winter became famous for with a CET of -1.9c. So it might suggest a Winter like that one could be quite good, at least in the middle, but then again I've no idea say how snowy it was or wasn't, so I can't judge if a similar Winter would be any good or not.

[virtualsphere]

2 hours ago, Bullseye said:

Top pic shows solar activity during 1932, bottom pic shows the ENSO pattern prior to 1932.

The mention of 1932-33 is interesting. Round here that winter is legendary for producing one of the biggest blizzards the area has ever seen.  One thing missing from even the recent colder winters has been a severe individual snowfall event (Feb 2007 is actually the biggest in recent memory; we had similar depths in 2010 but this built up over several days).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/uknews/8209333/Britains-coldest-winters-on-record-in-pictures.html?image=19

[claret047]

Good Morning everyone,

 

A few moments ago I went onto the internet to look at BBC Travel News as I will shortly be driving up the A14 and M11 to Huntingdon to take our grandson back home after his half term stay with us. By some coincidence the first page I opened was the link below which gave details of conditions in 2010, on of the winters which was discussed earlier in this thread.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8443578.stm

Kind regards

Dave

[Summer Sun]

 

Edited October 27, 2017 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

Oh no - strong westerlies in Europe in November !!!!!  I think the coldies will cope with that. 

I think plenty of dice rolling to come this winter........

[beng]

Far be it for me to disagree with Dr Cohen, but I'd suggest that a 'stretched' vortex like that (towards Baffin and away from Greenland to some extent) would be more consistent with something of a blocking signal over W Europe - maybe Scandi. Doesn't imply deep cold by any means, but possibly dry weather for UK - especially as you head into the SE. Possible moist westerlies for NW areas.

 

 

Edited October 28, 2017 by beng

[Weather-history]

On 10/25/2017 at 20:36, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I've never really heard what Winter 1932/33 was like, though I would have guessed it was mild, been in the 1930s. Looking at the monthly CET's though, we have Dec= 5.7c, Jan= 2.2c and Feb= 4.3c. So it must have been a fairly cold January at least. In fact it has the same CET as Jan 47, but as we know February was the month that Winter became famous for with a CET of -1.9c. So it might suggest a Winter like that one could be quite good, at least in the middle, but then again I've no idea say how snowy it was or wasn't, so I can't judge if a similar Winter would be any good or not.

Ended in probably the greatest weather event of the 1930s in terms of impact for the British Isles

 

Edited October 28, 2017 by Weather-history