Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

[North-Easterly Blast]

6 hours ago, Frozen Britain said:

Here are the analogues I was talking about. The pre solar minimum winters occur inside 2 years of solar minimum. The post solar minimum (the one we're interested in) occurs inside of 2 years after solar minimum.

A very mixed bag for pre solar minimum winters - 1962-63 is in there, and was the most severe since 1740.  1995-96 was also considerably colder than most winters in the last 30 years.  1983-84 was good for the cold polar maritime zonality in the January; 1953-54 was cold by today's standards in January and February although it did have a mild December.  Some decent winters there, but 1974-75 was rubbish.  Winter 2007-08 was also a mild one overall with nothing more than occasional surface cold under short spells of mid-latitude blocks.

Edited October 20, 2017 by North-Easterly Blast

[summer blizzard]

I'm not too downbeat at the moment myself. Although what we have seen is hideous it is due to an extremely amplified jet stream as opposed to raging south westerlies. Shift the wavelengths a little and southerlies can become northerlies ect..

[summer blizzard]

I'd also add that we should remember the winter of 05-06. Sep and Oct were 15+ and 13+ respectively with record warmth in the first half of November.. the second half had a CET of something like 2.6C. Indeed 2010 saw near record warmth in the first half of November. 

Point being, it's not until at least November (sometimes later) that the winter pattern sets up. 

[stewfox]

12 hours ago, nn2013 said:

I know both occasions were very mild - obviously I wasn't alive 78/79, but 09/10 it was very very muggy and wet in the November. Can remember the day, I got a lift home from work (it was early November) and it was absolutely lashing it down! Was glad I didn't have to get the bus home! 

According to my diary I was. Gave detail account of my snowman in Jan 79. I know i did cheat and added ice from freezer near the end to keep it alive. Back then you were gutted if you missed the farmers weekly forecast. Please to note  lamp post watching hasn't changed nor my need to build a snow man if we get a cold snap. It did snow in dec 78 as well.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Well today it seems that the Euros are abandoning the idea of a warm spell at month's end and is now showing a much colder solution, with the possibility of snow, especially further north and at elevation. More runs needed I suppose.

[summer blizzard]

Model agreement!! Cold, freezing consensus. 

Won't last unfortunately but the GFS6z is a beauty in FI,

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I'd also add that we should remember the winter of 05-06. Sep and Oct were 15+ and 13+ respectively with record warmth in the first half of November.. the second half had a CET of something like 2.6C. Indeed 2010 saw near record warmth in the first half of November. 

Point being, it's not until at least November (sometimes later) that the winter pattern sets up. 

Winter 2005-06 was roughly overall average; although there was a fair amount of blocking that winter it never set up favourably to bring serious cold air to Britain.  It was bookended by a November that had a lot of cold frosty weather and even a little snow for some in the second half, and the March that followed was also below average.

[Don]

Latest 6 month look ahead from the CFSv2 on Gavs Weather Vids.  The outlook continues to look absolutely atrocious with relentless storms and Atlantic driven mild weather right through to April.  Really nasty for those of us who like it cold and snowy.........

 

Edited October 21, 2017 by Don

[hillbilly]

8 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Winter 2005-06 was roughly overall average; although there was a fair amount of blocking that winter it never set up favourably to bring serious cold air to Britain.  It was bookended by a November that had a lot of cold frosty weather and even a little snow for some in the second half, and the March that followed was also below average.

Interestingly the extended winter 2005/6 from November to April had only 3 airfrosts less than that of 2009/10 in this area.I remember the fields being almost yellow in March/April,something that you only get in a long cold winter and was less prominent in 2010.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I wasn't too impressed with Winter 2005/06 at the time. Although it was cold at times, it was pretty pants for snow round here. We did have some snow that settled in November from a northerly toppler I think, but it weren't massive amounts, was pretty wet I think and it maybe lasted a day or two. The late February 06 event was a total let down, as even though snow fell steadily all day every single flake was liquidised as soon as it touched the surface, so it was practically white rain.

Strangely though, even though the following Winter of 2006/07 was much milder, it still provided us with a half decent snowy spell in early February 07. The best round here at the time since late December 01 I think (beaten since in 2010 and 2013 of course). So that was odd that we had a slightly cold Winter (or average or whatever) that didn't really give us a decent snowy spell, which was followed by a mild Winter that did.

[NeilN]

Strangely enough the February 2007 snow spell, I remember it very vividly. It was a welcome respite in a very mild winter.

As for the video above, I refuse to believe that forecast. I don’t think it will be mild this winter. 

[tlo]

5 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

 

5 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

As for the video above, I refuse to believe that forecast. I don’t think it will be mild this winter. 

I hope you are right, but you do not believe the forecast I have to ask why ?

[NeilN]

5 minutes ago, tlo said:

 

I hope you are right, but you do not believe the forecast I have to ask why ?

I’m just a believer in what and see. I think the mild thing is just a default setting as the last four winters have been mild. 

[summer blizzard]

50 minutes ago, tlo said:

 

I hope you are right, but you do not believe the forecast I have to ask why ?

I'm not going to say it will be mild or cold but my years of being here have taught me that the CFS is rubbish more than about two weeks out. 

I would place little stock in it. 

[hillbilly]

It is quite often in past weather to see a very wet period become very dry,similarly a very mild period can suddenly become very cold more often than you think .

[Mrs D]

I would like the months to run true to form. In my childhood October was crisp and bright quite often. Now it is always too mild. We hardly get any frost over the winter months, which is seriously necessary for agriculture and gardeners alike. I am not a huge fan of snow, but cold is necessary, and I wouldn't object to a couple of snowy weeks.

[John Cox]

48 minutes ago, Mrs D said:

I would like the months to run true to form. In my childhood October was crisp and bright quite often. Now it is always too mild. We hardly get any frost over the winter months, which is seriously necessary for agriculture and gardeners alike. I am not a huge fan of snow, but cold is necessary, and I wouldn't object to a couple of snowy weeks.

Welcome to the forum.

30 years ago this was the normal but with Climate change I think starting times of Autumn and Winter seasons have moved forwarward by about a month.

[Mrs D]

Thank you for your kind welcome. Mrs D

[lassie23]

My hopes are that winter isn't over before it's began, my thoughts are that it is.

[Methuselah]

Can't agree with that one, lassie: one two-week-long spell of cold and snowy NE'erlies will do me fine...

[lassie23]

50 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Can't agree with that one, lassie: one two-week-long spell of cold and snowy NE'erlies will do me fine...

and me, but the fog index is a big fat zero hope it turns out to be a load of old********

[Frost HoIIow]

I wouldn't say no to a winter like 2008-2009. It was certainly better than the last 4. February 2009 in particular was decent for snow, around here we got a good snowfall with some minor drifting from these synoptics below.

 

Edited October 22, 2017 by Frost HoIIow

[Windchime72]

I hope to see a lot of cold frosty foggy weather, with a few snowfalls thrown in...i can dream on...lol

[NeilN]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I wouldn't say no to a winter like 2008-2009. It was certainly better than the last 4. February 2009 in particular was decent for snow, around here we got a good snowfall with some minor drifting from these synoptics below.

 

I reckon we'll get a winter like that one - a good snow spell and fairly cold - a "meet halfway" option. 

[lassie23]

The models are showing a cold start to November.......snow in the first week of November