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Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion


syed2878

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Have the Express had their SNOWMAGGEDON headline yet? That is normally the nail in the coffin for a winter in my experience :D

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
11 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Have the Express had their SNOWMAGGEDON headline yet? That is normally the nail in the coffin for a winter in my experience :D

Yes haha, N-W have even shared it on the front page! Mild southwesterlies will undoubtedly be the order of the winter this year.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Just a very early ‘feel’ for winter but no beast from east type scenario anticipated by me or prolonged very cold outbreaks (by prolonged I feel 10 or more consecutive days of comfortably below average temps). Several periods of cold shots emigrating from NW to NE quadrant through displaced PV setups to our E / NE and HP to west.  Situations like this breakdown relatively quickly but not always a toppler situation as a week of decent cold can be achieved.

Overall it may come about as an average CET type winter but notable due to the tipsy turvy temp ranges

 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
52 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Just a very early ‘feel’ for winter but no beast from east type scenario anticipated by me or prolonged very cold outbreaks (by prolonged I feel 10 or more consecutive days of comfortably below average temps). Several periods of cold shots emigrating from NW to NE quadrant through displaced PV setups to our E / NE and HP to west.  Situations like this breakdown relatively quickly but not always a toppler situation as a week of decent cold can be achieved.

Overall it may come about as an average CET type winter but notable due to the tipsy turvy temp ranges

 

 

BFTP

Good to see you posting Fred, hope you re well. Happy with an average/below forecast as by definition this means there will be colder periods and that is an improvement on the last few years. All to look forward to.

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Posted
  • Location: Strathblane/Killearn nr Glasgow
  • Location: Strathblane/Killearn nr Glasgow

Sorry to put a dampener on prospects for the upcoming winter. If the analogues are to be believed that pre solar minimum winters are not conducive to extensive northern blocking/Greenland ridges, then this winter will not be one to remember. The analogues for pre-solar minimum winters show high pressure over Scandinavia, low pressure over Europe, a ridge in the Atlantic and the polar vortex over Greenland or low pressure over Greenland. The past has shown the UK to have its coldest winters when the sun is quiet, hence the exceptional UK winters in the 1600's/1700's. We are heading to solar minimum just now so no Greenland blocking this year unfortunately (this is what the analogues show as I've already said). The sun is on roughly an 11 point something years cycle. The most recent stunning winters of 2009/10 and December 2010 followed solar minimum in 2007/2008. The exceptionally stunning cold in December 2010 came to an abrupt halt due to a descending wQBO. Solar minimum isn't expected till 2019. So will either be 2019/20 or after that for a Greenland blocking winter. For now, we should of course be looking to the models for verification of what the analogues are showing. Will the atmospheric setup match the analogues this coming winter?

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
11 minutes ago, Frozen Britain said:

Sorry to put a dampener on prospects for the upcoming winter. If the analogues are to be believed that pre solar minimum winters are not conducive to extensive northern blocking/Greenland ridges, then this winter will not be one to remember. The analogues for pre-solar minimum winters show high pressure over Scandinavia, low pressure over Europe, a ridge in the Atlantic and the polar vortex over Greenland or low pressure over Greenland. 

I'm no expert but that sounds brilliant for snow!

Low pressure diving down from Greenland into Central Europe with cold continental air on its Northerly flank.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm no expert but that sounds brilliant for snow!

Low pressure diving down from Greenland into Central Europe with cold continental air on its Northerly flank.

I was thinking the same thing...:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
1 hour ago, Frozen Britain said:

Sorry to put a dampener on prospects for the upcoming winter. If the analogues are to be believed that pre solar minimum winters are not conducive to extensive northern blocking/Greenland ridges, then this winter will not be one to remember. The analogues for pre-solar minimum winters show high pressure over Scandinavia, low pressure over Europe, a ridge in the Atlantic and the polar vortex over Greenland or low pressure over Greenland. The past has shown the UK to have its coldest winters when the sun is quiet, hence the exceptional UK winters in the 1600's/1700's. We are heading to solar minimum just now so no Greenland blocking this year unfortunately (this is what the analogues show as I've already said). The sun is on roughly an 11 point something years cycle. The most recent stunning winters of 2009/10 and December 2010 followed solar minimum in 2007/2008. The exceptionally stunning cold in December 2010 came to an abrupt halt due to a descending wQBO. Solar minimum isn't expected till 2019. So will either be 2019/20 or after that for a Greenland blocking winter. For now, we should of course be looking to the models for verification of what the analogues are showing. Will the atmospheric setup match the analogues this coming winter?

Just to point out that 4 of the severest winters of the 20th century actually occurred near solar maxima.

1916-17, 1928-29, 1946-47, 1978-79 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Strathblane/Killearn nr Glasgow
  • Location: Strathblane/Killearn nr Glasgow

Here are the analogues I was talking about. The pre solar minimum winters occur inside 2 years of solar minimum. The post solar minimum (the one we're interested in) occurs inside of 2 years after solar minimum.

Screenshot.jpg

Screenshot001.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Strathblane/Killearn nr Glasgow
  • Location: Strathblane/Killearn nr Glasgow
5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Just to point out that 4 of the severest winters of the 20th century actually occurred near solar maxima.

1916-17, 1928-29, 1946-47, 1978-79 

 

They must have been westQBO winters Mr data? Were they, or were they not? We are currently heading towards eQBO and that was filtered into the analogues as this is where we are headed for this coming winter. Perhaps I should have mentioned the QBO.

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
52 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Just to point out that 4 of the severest winters of the 20th century actually occurred near solar maxima.

1916-17, 1928-29, 1946-47, 1978-79 

 

Three occurred on the upslope from minimum and one in a generally low cycle. From some of the research posted, it appears the strongest chance of a cold winter is after minimum as it takes a while for the GM activity to ramp up. Equally, it takes a while for it to wind down and this winter may be still a tad too soon unless there are other factors at play to help the chances.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

There's been too many 'Autumns' in the last few years, therefore I hope Winter will happen in Winter this year :/

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

I know we've still got 1 and 1/3 months until Winter begins still, but the models aren't keen to introduce any seasonal temperatures any time soon, with the models firming up again on a blast of southerly air towards the end of the month. I really hope things start to improve in the next month, because we don't want similar synoptics by then. We certainly don't want anything like Dec 15 say. On the other hand part of me's hoping that if it's so warm now, that by Winter things might turn around for the better.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
5 hours ago, Frozen Britain said:

Sorry to put a dampener on prospects for the upcoming winter. If the analogues are to be believed that pre solar minimum winters are not conducive to extensive northern blocking/Greenland ridges, then this winter will not be one to remember. The analogues for pre-solar minimum winters show high pressure over Scandinavia, low pressure over Europe, a ridge in the Atlantic and the polar vortex over Greenland or low pressure over Greenland. The past has shown the UK to have its coldest winters when the sun is quiet, hence the exceptional UK winters in the 1600's/1700's. We are heading to solar minimum just now so no Greenland blocking this year unfortunately (this is what the analogues show as I've already said). The sun is on roughly an 11 point something years cycle. The most recent stunning winters of 2009/10 and December 2010 followed solar minimum in 2007/2008. The exceptionally stunning cold in December 2010 came to an abrupt halt due to a descending wQBO. Solar minimum isn't expected till 2019. So will either be 2019/20 or after that for a Greenland blocking winter. For now, we should of course be looking to the models for verification of what the analogues are showing. Will the atmospheric setup match the analogues this coming winter?

for me this whole solar maximum/minimum is not that clear cut...the very cold winters of 1894-95, 1916-17,1946-47 and 1978-79 all occurred around solar maximums as did the very cold February of 1969..

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale

I've abandoned all hope. Nearly November and we are still chancing low 20s courtesy of that darling azores high with its vile spanish muck

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

I think that Azores high needs a lesson teaching. Can't we fire a load of stuff at it to make it go away? 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

I dont take too much notice of End October, November or even early December weather with regards to the Winter. If i remember rightly Winter 78/79 wasnt much of it in terms of cold and snow until just after Christmas. Was November cold before 78/79 really took hold?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
11 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I dont take too much notice of End October, November or even early December weather with regards to the Winter. If i remember rightly Winter 78/79 wasnt much of it in terms of cold and snow until just after Christmas. cWas November old before 78/79 really took hold?

No, zonal with a rampant PV apart from a late very brief NWerly, there was a failed near Easterly right at the end of the month with maybe some surface cold.

EDIT :Possibly daytime temps struggling to get above freezing around 30th Nov in the South East but I doubt a great deal of snow.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

Didn't October / November 1978 have warm temperatures? Then again, October and November 2009 were rather mild with a lot of rain (I remember moving house in the October and it was so warm it was like a summers day), and the rest they say is....history. 

Edited by nn2013
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

Didn't October / November 1978 have warm temperatures? Then again, October and November 2009 were rather mild with a lot of rain (I remember moving house in the October and it was so warm it was like a summers day), and the rest they say is....history. 

Yes, they did nn2013 - and the winter that followed was a stonker...But, many years ago, someone told me that there was very mild weather in November 1962 (all can recall is walking home through snowfall!)...Please don't base your expectations on what 'old farts' like us want to tell you?:D

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
12 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

Didn't October / November 1978 have warm temperatures? Then again, October and November 2009 were rather mild with a lot of rain, and the rest they say is....history. 

It seems the CET's in 1978 were Oct= 11.9c and Nov= 8.5c. In 2009 Oct= 11.6c and Nov= 8.7c. So pretty similar. I do remember it been very zonal and mild in early Nov 2009 though. 

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
25 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

It seems the CET's in 1978 were Oct= 11.9c and Nov= 8.5c. In 2009 Oct= 11.6c and Nov= 8.7c. So pretty similar. I do remember it been very zonal and mild in early Nov 2009 though. 

I know both occasions were very mild - obviously I wasn't alive 78/79, but 09/10 it was very very muggy and wet in the November. Can remember the day, I got a lift home from work (it was early November) and it was absolutely lashing it down! Was glad I didn't have to get the bus home! 

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
9 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

I know both occasions were very mild - obviously I wasn't alive 78/79, but 09/10 it was very very muggy and wet in the November. Can remember the day, I got a lift home from work (it was early November) and it was absolutely lashing it down! Was glad I didn't have to get the bus home! 

I also remember early Nov 09 very well aswell, as me and my mates went to Wolverhampton to watch the fireworks in the park there and it was lashing it down, but I felt really warm and sticky under my coat. I also think I thought at the time that this might not look good for our Winter prospects. Little did I know. Sometimes, especially in moments like these, it feels a bit of a relief to be reminded of these things :D.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Yes, they did nn2013 - and the winter that followed was a stonker...But, many years ago, someone told me that there was very mild weather in November 1962 (all can recall is walking home through snowfall!)...Please don't base your expectations on what 'old farts' like us want to tell you?:D

No, November 1962 was not mild; it was below average, with a CET of 5.5.  

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