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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    90L has become Tropical Depression 16. Provided it can form a coherent single core (it has competing centers) then it should hit the gulf coast as a hurricane on Sunday. NHC and SHIPS note the possibility of rapid intensification however the GFS never forms a coherent center. 

    Edited by Nick L
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    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-96-1-20   

    Some concerns about whether N.O. can deal with the rainfall. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/nola-pumps-still-broken-ahead-of-nate

    22 killed already in Central America at TS strength. :-( Tropical Storm Nate kills 22 in Central America, heads for US https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/06/tropical-storm-nate-kills

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

     Here we go again. Looks like we’ll soon be saying hello to Nate. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Euro is 963mb so high end cat 2. 

    Ships now forecasting rapid intensification..

    SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  63% is  10.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%)

    That's a forecast for a 95KT system in 72 hours. 

    rgb0-lalo.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Convection has developed over a center and a large banding feature now exists over the northern half. If the core can build we should see strengthening.

    rbtop0-lalo.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Well Nate is born GFS for once seems to have outdone ECM with its more westerly track ECM has jumped aboard possible taking Nate to the Carolinas.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    28 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Well Nate is born GFS for once seems to have outdone ECM with its more westerly track ECM has jumped aboard possible taking Nate to the Carolinas.

     

    That's interesting as the GFS has Nate much weaker that the ECM

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    Posted
  • Location: Chorlton, 29m asl.
  • Location: Chorlton, 29m asl.

    22 killed already in Central America at TS strength. :-(

    Tropical Storm Nate kills 22 in Central America, heads for US

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/06/tropical-storm-nate-kills-central-america-heads-for-us?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I sincerely hope that they're not 'still broken' from Katrina, Karyo?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    I sincerely hope that they're not 'still broken' from Katrina, Karyo?

    Me too! You'd think in an area that is prone to hurricanes and tropical rains, fixing those pumps would be a priority but obviously not.

    They were broken during Harvey but luckily for New Orleans the worst of the rains were in Texas.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    A work colleague is jetting off to holiday in Cancun Mexico early this morning. It looks like they'll just about be landing before Nate hits them early on Saturday. Could be a very bumpy ride.

    MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL16_swath_1280x720.jpg?v=

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    It looks to me that if the forecast path moves further west, it would be even worse for New Orleans as a lot of rain would then fall on the Mississippi river catchment area. As things stand it looks like Nate will shift northeast after impacting N.O.

    I guess at this close range there shouldn't be major changes to the track. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Nate now at 50mph and has wrapped convection round the north, west and south sides. If it wraps convection round the east then we may see why SHIPS is suggesting rapid intensification chances as being higher than average. 

    Sadly even at Harvey levels of deepening we won't see anything beyond category 2, more likely a high end category 1 given the short time frame. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Low end Cat 3 is possible albeit unlikely I definitely see her being at least a Cat 2. Nate seems to be getting her act together she's strengthening moving relatively fast 21mph, however approx 24 hours over open warm waterexpect the unexpected. The Mayor of New Orleans? Has recently declared mandatory evacuations in some districts in preparation for an expect 6-8ft tidal surge supposedly a lot of the pumps are out of action. 

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Winds picking up in Cancun Mexico. Click for live streams.

     

    Edited by kar999
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