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Paul

Un-named Atlantic lows 2017

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Thought it would be handy to have a thread for discussing any un-named Atlantic lows coming our way through the autumn and start of winter. 

To get the ball rolling, we've a fairly active spell coming up, with ex-hurricanes Lee and Maria in the mix, nothing named as yet. 

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Metoffice warnings have been issued for rain so far - this for the end of the weekend/start of next week. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-10-01

Apparently the East Midlands is in the warning area, at least in the special part of the East Midlands just east of Manchester :cc_confused:

screenshot-www.metoffice.gov.uk 2017-09-28 12-00-53-744.png

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I read somewhere that this 'storm' was called Brian

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2 hours ago, Jan said:

I read somewhere that this 'storm' was called Brian

No, that's just the tabloid press jumping the gun unfortunately, nothing has been named yet. 

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57 minutes ago, Paul said:

No, that's just the tabloid press jumping the gun unfortunately, nothing has been named yet. 

Oh, I should have known better than to trust the tabloids!

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If the gathering storm is to have a name beginning with B, surely it should be Brexit!

:-)

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10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

If the gathering storm is to have a name beginning with B, surely it should be Brexit!

:-)

Or Boris :bomb:

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Large waves probable around the North West Coast of England (Blackpool as an example). Peak wind gusts coinciding with High Tide.

Tonight.thumb.png.64f2a3212f0b68c615eed80142a2f07d.png

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Yikes, this little-low came from nowhere since first being watched yesterday. There was supposed to be high-pressure building in with frosts and fog for this week.

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GFS doesn't make much of it seems to get it acts together when it leaves the east coast in the morning but even then nothing major.

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Strongest gust was 41 mph here so GFS over did a little bit but certainly no need for a warning for this area. Actually it was one of those silly warnings as when I checked the expected gusts for us they were 35 mph  and less for this morning.

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We had a wild spell on the east coast for an hour this morning, peak gust was 50mph ish. But not as bad as predicted, although we were on the edge of the warning area. A lot of leaves stripped off still partly green and a fence panel thats one step nearer to the woodburner, but to be fair its the last one that I haven't replaced, but I think I'll be going to be a trip to B&Q at the weekend and sort it before we get a real storm. Main feature was the gustiness which was pronounced, almost still to 50mph.

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Friday in to Saturday could be interesting for Mainland UK this coming week. Still awhile off but one to watch maybe. Would this be our second named storm or have we already had it? :)

 

airpressure.pngukwind.png

airpressure.pngukwind.png

airpressure.pngukwind.png

 

 

Edited by Zephyr
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I was just having a look at that myself, @Zephyr 
Quite an active period being modeled. It's nice to have some weather to get stuck in to. Although, my levels of enthusiasm are a bit on the low side at the moment.

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The medium-range is still looking quite tasty at this stage..

viewimage.thumb.png.5142872ccea041e0902197989f8bd771.png 59e54955b761b_viewimage(1).thumb.png.4f224186b51e181311386d6e9cad7238.png 59e54957d031f_viewimage(2).thumb.png.1815fb2c6a00c257e90fd11ca4d54208.png

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7 hours ago, Mapantz said:

The medium-range is still looking quite tasty at this stage..

viewimage.thumb.png.5142872ccea041e0902197989f8bd771.png 59e54955b761b_viewimage(1).thumb.png.4f224186b51e181311386d6e9cad7238.png 59e54957d031f_viewimage(2).thumb.png.1815fb2c6a00c257e90fd11ca4d54208.png

:yahoo:

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And our next low is now being born. 

Invest 92L is the current allocated "reference" for the ongoing disturbance across the pond. 

two_atl_2d0.thumb.png.a9f0a8818bf1362fbbda16fdb7422474.png

Not expected to become a hurricane however, but interaction with the jet stream later this week and a frontal wave will increase the likely hood of a very strong Atlantic storm. 

Wether it becomes a named storm is up for debate and the areas affected with various model outputs on track and indeed intensity. 

Also what will be key to any potential upgrade or downgraded in wind speeds will be decided on when the depression under goes rapid bombing. Current model predictions have it filling by the time it reaches our shores, while yesterday it was over the UK. 

Areas currently most at risk would be the south and Midlands, but subject to change. 

Before this though is a smaller and less potent depression for Thursday. But models have been toying with a very short lived area of high winds Thursday afternoon for the south coast. 

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The naming of storms seems odd, given yesterday/today’s storm(ex Ophelia) wasn’t named in the uk sequence, but the one later this week might be. Anybody know why Ophelia wasn’t named?

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4 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

The naming of storms seems odd, given yesterday/today’s storm(ex Ophelia) wasn’t named in the uk sequence, but the one later this week might be. Anybody know why Ophelia wasn’t named?

She had a NHC name and the UK met keeps the protocol for already named cyclones. If the next one is not named as a tropical system, it will be named by the local met agency if it warrants such.

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Interesting looks like another wowser it may not be tropical looks like the disturbance is no longer being contained in the NHC TWO i expect the second named storm (Brian) being used by the met office.

Edited by Richard David McCarthy

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Just looked at the EURO 12Z run and the consensus shows me that the low gradually weakens as it moves into the British Isles 980mb still something to watch out at this range but S England definitely will be in the path of this one.

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Latest 00Z GFS Consensus has shifted the system north a bit. If the Euro models agree with the global model/s Wales, S & C England and Southern Ireland may have direct impacts by this current GFS image for 21-10-2017 06Z with MSLP 970mb.

Capture.thumb.PNG.88e62e3afd3c95fd2ffd1d75d928fc09.PNG

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Severe Sly gales on this chart currently.

brack2a.gif

 

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