October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts, errors and ranks

If you're having trouble opening scoring files then this will give you some idea how you did in October, it's the table of forecasts converted to an error format. Ranks take into account order of entering the contest.

 

Error __ Name, (rank)

 

_0.0 __ ED STONE (1)

+0.3 __ ROGER J SMITH (2)

--0.7 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (3)

--0.8 __ MAPANTZ (4)

--0.9 __ SUMMER SUN (5), BLAST FROM THE PAST (6)

--1.0 __ VIRTUALSPHERE (7), REEF (8)

--1.1 __ MAN WITH BEARD (9)

--1.2 __ WEATHER26 (10), BORN FROM THE VOID (11)

--1.3 __ POLAR GAEL (12), SEASIDE 60 (13), DAMIANSLAW (14), MARK BAYLEY (15), STATIONARY FRONT (16)

--1.4 __  BOBD29 (17),GAEL_FORCE (18),

--1.5 __ mean 1987-2016  and JVENGE (19), DANCER WITH WINGS (20), MULZY (21)

--1.6 __ RADIATING DENDRITE (22), SNOWRAY (23)

--1.7 __ mean 1981-2010 and SUMMER BLIZZARD (24), SINGULARITY (25), DAVEHSUG (26)

--1.8 __ Consensus and  JONATHAN F. (27), DON(28), DUNCAN McALISTER (29), J10 (30), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (31)

--1.9 __ STEVEB (32), DR(S)NO (33), GODBER.1 (34), SYED2878 (35), STEWFOX (36), THE PIT (37),  POLAR MARITIME (38)

--2,0 __ SIMSHADY (39), SUNDOG (40), DAVID SNOW (41), CHRIS R (42), PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (43)***

--2.1 __ JEFF C (44), STARGAZER (45)

--2.2 __ DANIEL* (46). WEATHER-HISTORY (47)

--2.3 __ PEGG24 (48), PROLONGEDSNOWLOVER (49), DAMI (50)*

--2,4 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE (51), JONBOY (52)

--2.5 __ NN2013 (53)

--2.6 __ VIZZY2004 (54)

--2.7 __ ALEXISJ9 (55)

--3.0 __ LET IT SNOW! (56)

+3.1 __ LETTUCING GUTTED (57)

--3.1 __ ROSS ANDREW HEMPHILL (58)

--3.2 __ TIMMYTOUR (59)**

--3.3 __ RELATIVISTIC (60)

--3.6 __ SUMMER of 95 (61)

__________________________________________________________________

* after rank, day(s) late

Edited November 3, 2017 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

On 11/2/2017 at 21:09, J10 said:

Oct 2017 CET New.xlsxCET this month - 12.4c

This month only Ed Stone got it spot on, with Roger J Smith and I remember Atlantic 252 not far behind.

Seasonal - All change with the 1-2-3 now virtualsphere, I remember Atlantic 252 and Radiating Dendrite.

Overall - a slight change at the top with

3rd. Weather 26 remaining in 3rd.
2nd. daveshug (was 1st last month),
1st. I remember Atlantic 252 (was 2nd last month),

These have now been fixed and should now work.

Oct 2017 CET New.xlsx

Oct 2017 CET.pdf

 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, J10 said:

These have now been fixed and should now work.

Oct 2017 CET New.xlsx

Oct 2017 CET.pdf

 

Given that my pathetic effort for September was about 2C out, it's hardly surprising that I moved up so far!

November will no doubt see me sink back to mediocrity?

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks, J10, now I am able to open those files ...

This is the slightly corrected version of the table I posted earlier ... the comments generally stand. 

 

FORECASTER ____ Dec _ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _ Oct __ mean/T __ position

 

Normal 1981-2010 _  -1.4 _ +0.4_ -1.7_ -2.1_ -0.4 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.8 _ +0.5 _ -1.7 ___ 1.10 __ 6th

__ points _________ 79.6_ 69.9_ 56,1_ 59.0_ 86.8 _49.7__7.5 _ 93.7 _ 61.8 _ 86.3 _ 61.4 __ 716.8 __ 4th

 

Normal 1987-2016 _  -1.0 _ +0.6_ -1.3_ -2.0__ -0.1 _-1.4_ -1.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.9 _ +0.6 _ -1.5 ___ 1.00 __ t 4th

__ points _________ 89.8_ 58.0_ 67.4_ 61.8_  98.4_ 53.0__7.5 _93.7 _ 56.6 _ 82.9 _ 69.8 _ 738.9 __ 4th

 

Consensus _______  -2.1 _ -0.1_ -1.8_ -2.2 _ +0.9 _-1.3 _ -0.5 _+0.4 _ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ -1.8 __ 1.19 _ 14th

__ points _________ 50.0 _95.7 _52.4 _56.2 _57.1 _56.4 _72.4_ 70.1 _ 56.6 _ 60.7 _ 56.4 _ 684.0 __ 6th

__________________________________________________________________________

These ranks are determined independently, obviously if Normal 1987-2016 and Normal 1981-2010 were both playing, one would be 4th and one would be 5th.