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Roger J Smith

October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

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15 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Almost certain October 2017 will end up in the top 10 warmest recorded, meaning 7 of the warmest Octobers on record have occured since the turn of the 21st century - some feat indeed!! what is happening to October I wonder..

It would seem to me that climatic change has resulted in warmer Octobers in recent years. Sea-surface temperatures are above the long-term seasonal normal (as you might expect with global warming): However, less Arctic ice extent has encouraged the jet-stream to move further to the north, whilst more frequent (and more intense) Atlantic hurricanes have given added potency to depressions in the North Atlantic. Warm, moist south-westerlies have become more common and cold Arctic interruptions to the Ferrel Westerlies exceedingly rare in October, possibly as a result of these developments! 

A forlorn hope is that this quiet cool Sun predicted for the 2020's through to the 2040's actually results in a global cooling so that the Arctic ice recovers and the North Atlantic cools a little - encouraging a return to the cold frosty autumn spells of yore! It depends how much the effect of rising CO2 levels is countered by the Quiet Sun, the output of which could be expected to drop up to half of one percent - we can but hope!!

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Sunny Sheffield up 12.5C  +1.5C above normal. A slight change in the outlook now means only one day well below normal Saturday and Sunday both have spells of quite mild weather. So looks like we will end up between 12C and 12.3C. This could make it the 4th warmest on record here. Certainly in the top ten.

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13.2 to the 26th

2.3 above the 61 to 90 average

2.3 above the 81 to 10 average

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Sunny Sheffield at 12.4C +1.6C above normal. Min temp +2.2C above normal showing how mild the nights have been.

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13.1 to the 27th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.2 above the 81 to 10 average

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12.2c here to the 27th, 2.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

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Yesterday is provisionally, the first sub 10C day of the season. The final 2 days of the month are both likely to average under 10C also.

The CET now looks like finishing between 12.5 and 12.7C before corrections are applied

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13.0 to the 28th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

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11.9c here to the 29th, 2.0c above the 1981-2010 average.

Edited by vizzy2004

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12.9 to the 29th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

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Sunny Sheffield down to 12.4C +1.9C above normal final figure looks like it'll be 11.9C to 12C

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12.7 to the 30th

2.0 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

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Unless it gets warm overnight sunnysheffield will finish on 11.9C +1.6C above normal

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On 30/09/2017 at 09:35, stewfox said:

My heart says 12.4 as it hasn't occurred in 354yrs but my head says 10.5 . ill go with 10.5

Always go with your heart ;)

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More landmass looks cooler than average not Western Europe. The poles really are ‘toasty’.  

 

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Final value 12.4 C (rounded from 12.35, it dropped like an Ed Stone (congrats to winner).

(these facts hidden behind curtain in the website, rounding confirmed from monthly rankings)

13th warmest October, first time 12.4 has occurred. 

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11.7c here to finish, 1.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

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A bit disappointing that it ended up outside the top 10 in the end. I think the coolness at the end of the month has disguised just how warm most of October was.

The warm day on the 16th when it was 20C here at 9am will live long in the memory, especially with the strong winds that followed from Ophelia.

A memorable month but one that had the potential to be even better- I wonder what sort of temperatures could have been achieved on the 16th had the warmest pulse of air hit the UK in the early afternoon rather than the morning.

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6 hours ago, Scorcher said:

A bit disappointing that it ended up outside the top 10 in the end. I think the coolness at the end of the month has disguised just how warm most of October was.

The warm day on the 16th when it was 20C here at 9am will live long in the memory, especially with the strong winds that followed from Ophelia.

A memorable month but one that had the potential to be even better- I wonder what sort of temperatures could have been achieved on the 16th had the warmest pulse of air hit the UK in the early afternoon rather than the morning.

It looked at one point that there was a good chance it could have been the warmest October on record.  Glad it wasn't mind!

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October in Crosby finished with the following stats. 

 

Lowest Min - 1.7°C - 30th

Mean min - 11.1°C (+2.9)

Highest min - 16.9°C - 14th

Lowest max - 10.1°C - 30th

Mean max - 15.3°C (+1.4)

Highest max - 20.8°C - 16th

Coldest day - 6.4°C - 30th

Warmest day - 17.7°C 13th

Month mean - 13.0°C (+1.95)

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Here in Edmonton we finished on 3.9c which is 2c below normal...ave Max was 11.1c ave Min was -3.4c 

This is the first time i have not seen snow in October..which is strange considering the month ended 2c below the norm.

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CET this month - 12.4c

This month only Ed Stone got it spot on, with Roger J Smith and I remember Atlantic 252 not far behind.

image.thumb.png.243474ddcfe8fc243e38d0db564b8167.png

Seasonal - All change with the 1-2-3 now virtualsphere, I remember Atlantic 252 and Radiating Dendrite.

image.thumb.png.c093732ec9b5dca8cf538e64330898d3.png

Overall - a slight change at the top with

3rd. Weather 26 remaining in 3rd.
2nd. daveshug (was 1st last month),
1st. I remember Atlantic 252 (was 2nd last month),

image.thumb.png.9ba734a140945746a67555955f432526.png

 

Oct 2017 CET.pdf

Oct 2017 CET New.xlsx

 

Edited by J10
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