October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[Daniel*]

33 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Last year was chilly wasn't it?

Was it my memory is failing me I seem to recall for a stretch of years in recent times we've had an episode of unusually high temperatures balmy. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 12.7C +1.1C above normal. rainfall at 31.6mm 38.2% of normal.

[Summer Sun]

13.4 to the 20th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

[iapennell]

23 hours ago, Don said:

I have a feeling this month will kick the back side of 2001 now!

@Don, Yes it really does not bear thinking about. I remember October 2001 well; warm southerly and south-westerly winds dominated throughout that month and the lowest temperature I recorded at home near Nenthead, over 400 metres above sea-level in the North Pennines was a dismal poor 3C (even this October will better that with 2C).

Like this month, October 2001 was not only unseasonably warm but also frequently wet.  I lived in Lancaster at the time and frequently recall having to walk home in warm rain late at night after late work shifts, the weather there being even warmer and more muggy than the North Pennines. 

Suffice to say, I did not enjoy the weather that month! And I don't enjoy the fact that this month is set to be mild and often wet to the bitter end. This will now be the Fifth October In Succession totally devoid of any airstreams coming from polewards of 60N throughout!!! 

 

[Summer Sun]

13.4 to the 21st

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.6C +1.1C above normal

[NorthYorksWeather]

12.8c here to the 21st, 2.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

Cold one forecast tonight so should see a small drop tomorrow.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.4C +1C above normal.

[Summer Sun]

13.3 to the 22nd

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.4C +1.1C above normal

[Summer Sun]

13.2 to the 23rd

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

[NorthYorksWeather]

12.5c here to the 23rd, 2.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

Not much change in the couple of days but Thursday onward's sees more seasonal temps and poss below average as we head towards month end.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Chances of a record warm month all but gone now, with a few cool days coming to knock the CET down at months end.
Despite that, we may sneak in another few daily records soon. Even today, if the maximum finished on 17.3C or higher, we'll have a provisional daily record. Tomorrow could easily set a new record too, with a minimum of 12 and max above 16C enough to do the job.

The likely finish before corrections at this stage is 12.5 to 13.0C, so somewhere between 12.2 and 13.0C after corrections is likely. Top 10 still possible

[Summer Sun]

13.3 to the 24th

2.3 above the 61 to 90 average

2.2 above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

A provisional daily record for yesterday at 14.4C, beating the previous record by 0.1C.

Not a lot of change in the latest GFS, with a CET of about 12.8C +/-0.2C likely at months end, before corrections.
It also seem unlikely that we'll manage to be the 3rd year on record to make it to November (excl previous winter/Spring) without a daily mean below 10C, as the last 2 days of the month in particular could be quite chilly.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 12.5C  +1.4C should start falling in a few days time but not enough to prevent a notable mild month. Final figure 11.8C to 12.2C  so 12.8C to 13.2C in the CET zone allowing for the normal difference.

[damianslaw]

On 21/10/2017 at 16:45, iapennell said:

@Don, Yes it really does not bear thinking about. I remember October 2001 well; warm southerly and south-westerly winds dominated throughout that month and the lowest temperature I recorded at home near Nenthead, over 400 metres above sea-level in the North Pennines was a dismal poor 3C (even this October will better that with 2C).

Like this month, October 2001 was not only unseasonably warm but also frequently wet.  I lived in Lancaster at the time and frequently recall having to walk home in warm rain late at night after late work shifts, the weather there being even warmer and more muggy than the North Pennines. 

Suffice to say, I did not enjoy the weather that month! And I don't enjoy the fact that this month is set to be mild and often wet to the bitter end. This will now be the Fifth October In Succession totally devoid of any airstreams coming from polewards of 60N throughout!!! 

 

It was followed by a rather seasonal November and December though - we had a northerly in early November and I don't recall much mild weather thereafter. December 2001 was a rare dry cold frosty one with a bit of snow, more so at the end of the month with some sharp frosts. 

[damianslaw]

9 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

A provisional daily record for yesterday at 14.4C, beating the previous record by 0.1C.

Not a lot of change in the latest GFS, with a CET of about 12.8C +/-0.2C likely at months end, before corrections.
It also seem unlikely that we'll manage to be the 3rd year on record to make it to November (excl previous winter/Spring) without a daily mean below 10C, as the last 2 days of the month in particular could be quite chilly.

Yes suspect Monday will bring the first daily mean below 10 degrees, thanks to widespread cold temperatures overnight on Sunday, temps will struggle to get much above 10 degrees after the cold start for many.. 

[damianslaw]

Almost certain October 2017 will end up in the top 10 warmest recorded, meaning 7 of the warmest Octobers on record have occured since the turn of the 21st century - some feat indeed!! what is happening to October I wonder..

[Don]

29 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

It was followed by a rather seasonal November and December though - we had a northerly in early November and I don't recall much mild weather thereafter. December 2001 was a rare dry cold frosty one with a bit of snow, more so at the end of the month with some sharp frosts. 

This autumn is reminding me of 2001 too with both September and October being close in temperature at least.  I think they were fairly close in rainfall as well?  A colder start to November looks likely this year too, again like 2001.  However, following a colder than average December and a cold start to January, the rest of winter 2001/02 was very mild and largely snowless.

December 2001 CET: 3.6

January 2002 CET: 5.5

February 2002 CET: 7.0

In fact, 2002 was a pretty uneventful year for weather.

[sundog]

13 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Almost certain October 2017 will end up in the top 10 warmest recorded, meaning 7 of the warmest Octobers on record have occured since the turn of the 21st century - some feat indeed!! what is happening to October I wonder..

It seems to be the month that has changed the most over the last 2 decades (probably closely followed by sept) imo, which I find very frustrating as it is one of my fav months of the year or at least used to be. 

Edited October 26, 2017 by sundog

[Summer Sun]

13.3 to the 25th

2.3 above the 61 to 90 average

2.3 above the 81 to 10 average

[NorthYorksWeather]

12.5c here to the 25th, 2.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

Looking at latest models, it would suggest landing zone around 11.5c to 11.8c (October mean 9.8c here)

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, sundog said:

It seems to be the month that has changed the most over the last 2 decades (probably closely followed by sept) imo, which I find very frustrating as it is one of my fav months of the year or at least used to be. 

Possibly, there's an argument for April too though. Most Aprils in recent times have been warm to very warm, and a few exceptionally so. Warm spells in April have become a lot more common than cold spells.

It seems we are getting more warm spells in spring and autumn these days. Just a shame more of them don't seem to happen between May and August!

[iapennell]

15 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Almost certain October 2017 will end up in the top 10 warmest recorded, meaning 7 of the warmest Octobers on record have occured since the turn of the 21st century - some feat indeed!! what is happening to October I wonder..

It would seem to me that climatic change has resulted in warmer Octobers in recent years. Sea-surface temperatures are above the long-term seasonal normal (as you might expect with global warming): However, less Arctic ice extent has encouraged the jet-stream to move further to the north, whilst more frequent (and more intense) Atlantic hurricanes have given added potency to depressions in the North Atlantic. Warm, moist south-westerlies have become more common and cold Arctic interruptions to the Ferrel Westerlies exceedingly rare in October, possibly as a result of these developments! 

A forlorn hope is that this quiet cool Sun predicted for the 2020's through to the 2040's actually results in a global cooling so that the Arctic ice recovers and the North Atlantic cools a little - encouraging a return to the cold frosty autumn spells of yore! It depends how much the effect of rising CO2 levels is countered by the Quiet Sun, the output of which could be expected to drop up to half of one percent - we can but hope!!