October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[NorthYorksWeather]

13.2c here to the 16th, 2.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

Today looks to be the high point, with steady drops now likely.

[Summer Sun]

13.8 to the 16th

2.3 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Now that the MO have updated, we currently have 2 provisional records for the 14th and 16th. These are 17.4C and 16.2C, beating the respective previous records of 16.1C and 15.8C. The minimum for the 14th was just 0.4C below the daily record mean!

The latest GFS has the CET gradually dropping to 13.4C and staying around there until the end of the run. So a record warm month is still on the cards.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield now at 13.1C +1C above normal.

If present trends continue there isn't going to be much difference between the daily high and the daily low. It's also been very dry 14.1mm 17% of average

[Roger J Smith]

Does anybody else get this screen?

 

MEAN CET FOR 2017 10 MONTHS HAVE DATA 17/10/2017 10:35:33.000 2017 63 241 291 134 227 200 97 10 16 234 -32768 -32768 2017 445 616 859 923 1344 1616 1702 1588 1376 1384 -32768 -32768 1 52 87 50 108 123 171 174 157 135 143 -32768 -32768 2 25 98 62 97 110 159 166 164 137 141 -32768 -32768 3 27 74 69 92 98 146 167 169 137 116 -32768 -32768 4 56 45 76 106 122 131 171 168 173 124 -32768 -32768 5 13 34 56 81 109 123 184 150 174 130 -32768 -32768 6 31 21 55 81 104 124 209 140 143 109 -32768 -32768 7 67 51 61 95 117 137 184 160 138 130 -32768 -32768 8 78 38 84 103 89 151 174 142 154 128 -32768 -32768 9 77 15 96 132 88 150 195 150 134 135 -32768 -32768 10 77 19 85 94 99 157 167 147 123 147 -32768 -32768 11 78 16 106 86 128 159 149 139 137 146 -32768 -32768 12 41 31 108 102 133 148 162 168 133 126 -32768 -32768 13 29 58 82 82 135 158 169 143 131 149 -32768 -32768 14 36 53 103 99 137 170 161 155 119 173 -32768 -32768 15 66 64 102 94 128 163 172 168 117 156 -32768 -32768 16 76 71 85 88 152 163 185 154 117 161 -32768 -32768 17 58 84 77 90 133 197 174 180 118 -32768 -32768 -32768 18 54 81 99 70 113 207 197 155 122 -32768 -32768 -32768 19 52 85 117 83 119 220 190 145 117 -32768 -32768 -32768 20 36 110 102 105 106 201 158 145 138 -32768 -32768 -32768 21 10 99 58 111 127 217 161 164 143 -32768 -32768 -32768 22 11 97 60 104 161 180 154 191 113 -32768 -32768 -32768 23 28 78 64 91 155 159 151 182 148 -32768 -32768 -32768 24 29 58 81 95 178 169 176 159 151 -32768 -32768 -32768 25 36 72 74 53 194 159 171 158 149 -32768 -32768 -32768 26 8 91 88 59 198 151 174 178 153 -32768 -32768 -32768 27 21 60 78 62 186 159 153 172 152 -32768 -32768 -32768 28 38 33 93 94 163 139 157 187 152 -32768 -32768 -32768 29 41 -32768 107 94 149 127 160 162 147 -32768 -32768 -32768 30 52 -32768 147 121 157 150 157 138 123 -32768 -32768 -32768 31 78 -32768 137 -32768 152 -32768 157 130 -32768 -32768 -32768 -32768

 

If you do, here's a better version for October only:

 

MEAN CET FOR (Oct) 2017

2017 _ +2.34

2017 _ 13/84 

 1 ___ 14.3 _____ 6 ___ 10.9 ______ 11 ___ 14.6 _____ 16 ___ 16.1

 2 ___ 14.1 _____ 7 ___ 13.0 ______ 12 ___ 12.6

 3 ___ 11.6 _____ 8 ___ 12.8 ______ 13 ___ 14.9

 4 ___ 12.4 _____ 9 ___ 13.5 ______ 14 ___ 17.3

 5 ___ 13.0 ____ 10 ___ 14.7 ______ 15 ___ 15.6

As noted by BFTV, 14th and 16th are new record highs.

Previously 14th was 16.1 (1990) and 16th was 15.8 (1818). The 15th fell 0.1 short of 1930's 15.7 so may be in play for the final numbers. Today's record high is 15.6 from 1897. 

Assuming that the mean remains near 13.7 after today, the following years were running warmer by the end of 17 days ...

1. 1921 (14.9)

2. 1949, 1959, 1995 (14.7)

5. 2011 (14.3)

6. 1908, 2001 (14.2)

8. 1969 (14.1)

(tied 1831 at 13.7) ... 2006 was 13.5 at this point. 

[Nick L]

The near total absence of any chilly nights is quite remarkable, and there are none on the horizon either. In the next 10 days we'll struggle to get more than one or two nights where we have widespread minima in single figures. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

The near total absence of any chilly nights is quite remarkable, and there are none on the horizon either. In the next 10 days we'll struggle to get more than one or two nights where we have widespread minima in single figures. 

Indeed, there is a good chance that September will have a lower mean minimum temp than October.

[Chris.R]

 Coldest night of the season sofa last night with a low of 6.6°C. 

[Summer Sun]

13.8 to the 17th

2.3 above the 61 to 90 average

2.2 above the 81 to 10 average

[cheeky_monkey]

Windy Edmonton is at 3.8c to the 17th which is 2.1c below normal..even though we reached 22c yesterday.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just of note, if the max today isn't 13.2C or above, we'll have our first provisional sub 10C day of the season.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 13.1C +1.1C above normal.

[Summer Sun]

13.6 to the 18th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday was 10.0C provisionally, so still no sub 10C days.

The 06z GFS has upped the mildness for the remainder of the month, with the rolling CET remaining in the low to mid 13s through to the end of the run. It could also set a few more daily records along the way, with the 24th, 25th and 26th most at risk.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.8C due to yesterday being cold. That is +1.0C above normal. Rainfall now 15.4mm just 18.6% of normal

[NorthYorksWeather]

12.8c here to the 18th, 2.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

 

Edited October 19, 2017 by vizzy2004

[alexisj9]

On 12/10/2017 at 13:04, Don said:

It looks like my 10.6C prediction is already off the table........

I'm far too low as well this time.

[Summer Sun]

13.5 to the 19th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The recording breaking warm weather is unrelenting in the 06z GFS. Of the remaining 12 days, about half would set new records if this mornings run came to fruition. The resulting CET would be about 13.9C before corrections.
The forecast average for the 24th to 29th is 15.7C, which is warmer than the average final third of August!

Plenty of time for things to change, but probably a 50% chance of achieving a record warm month.

[Don]

5 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The recording breaking warm weather is unrelenting in the 06z GFS. Of the remaining 12 days, about half would set new records if this mornings run came to fruition. The resulting CET would be about 13.9C before corrections.
The forecast average for the 24th to 29th is 15.7C, which is warmer than the average final third of August!

Plenty of time for things to change, but probably a 50% chance of achieving a record warm month.

I have a feeling this month will kick the back side of 2001 now!

[Daniel*]

I went far too low when was our last below average October seems an eternity ago? 

[Styx]

Interesting stuff we are mimicking the situation down here almost exactly, an impressive heatwave for October just threw the month totally out of whack

[iapennell]

Second October in five years without a single air-frost beckons for Nenthead, the small village near where I live in the North Pennines. In October 2013 the lowest air-temperature recorded by my AWS was a pathetic 3C, and there was hardly even a ground-frost. Five of the last seven October's have seen us dominated by mild southerlies or south-westerlies almost completely throughout (I include October 2015 for this argument as the south-easterly winds we had were that, from a southerly quarter and they wangled their way 'round to southerlies as the month wore on!)

I detest the warm muggy buggy conditions these persistent south and south-west winds bring. Our new neighbours come up to the North Pennines only during holidays, but the man of the house came up on Tuesday complaining that it was "Too Stifling and Oppressive to stay in Manchester!": Manchester! Stifling! Oppressive heat?! On 17th October. This is crackers!!

Meanwhile, our home has been infested with rats, our vegetable garden and greenhouse with bugs, pestilence, and blight which has rotted our cabbages, broccoli, tomatoes and cucumbers in the greenhouse. And over the last few days I and my folks have had colds.

Cold dry weather helps get rid of pestilence. It also makes for some nice colours on the trees rather than the endless battering of warm winds and- at times- rain that turns leaves brown and has them off the trees before the first frosts get a look in (again, it looks like it'll be November before the first air-frost this autumn). 

Notice, too how in each of the last four Octobers (and in October 2011) the wind goes 'round to the South (or South-South-South-west) to bring Really Warm Air From A Long Way South during the final ten days of the month, leading to some record warm Halloweens! As if Nature is making This Point Writ Large: YOU ARE NOT GOING TO GET ANY COLD WEATHER UNTIL WELL INTO NOVEMBER!!!! 

Perhaps this year we will have another first as the mild South-westerlies set to Totally Dominate November - and we have to wait until December for our first air-frost of the season at Nenthead!!  What a horrifying thought!! 

[Nick L]

5 hours ago, Daniel* said:

I went far too low when was our last below average October seems an eternity ago? 

Last year was chilly wasn't it?

[North-Easterly Blast]

October is the only month where the 1971-2000 average (10.4) was lower than the 1961-90 average (10.6).  By the 1981-2010 average it had risen to 10.7.  If you look at it this way, the last time we had a below average October was in 2012 (CET 9.7), more than 0.5C below the long term mean.  Oct 2008 was also on the cool side (9.7).  The last time we had an October cooler than that was in 2003 (9.2).  The last really cold Octobers were in 1992 and 1993.

What is striking about October is that in recent years it has tended to be either slightly above average or very warm with nothing in between.  Since and including 2001 the October CET has reached or exceeded 13*C three times, and also been at least 12.5*C on three more occasions.  The last two years (11.0 and 10.9) have seen the October CET slightly above average but by no more than 0.5*C.  In fact since 1996 October has come in between 0.5 and 2.0 above average (between 11.0 and 12.5) on only one occasion (2009 11.6).  This is a strange statistical fact and does not look likely to be broken this year with October almost certain to be warm.