Hurricane Maria

[Hurricane Alley]

The last hour or so has been mad. The strongest and most sustained winds. Constant noise of the storm and spells of heavy rain. 

[Iceberg]

47 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Em what is she doing.

Wish I knew. Lack is stable core but why?

maria seems to want to make life easy for nhc by putting an x in the centre. 

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Wish I knew. Lack is stable core but why?

maria seems to want to make life easy for nhc by putting an x in the centre. 

Lol

[crimsone]

40 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Wish I knew. Lack is stable core but why?

maria seems to want to make life easy for nhc by putting an x in the centre. 

Whatever in the hell she's doing with her eye, she definitely isn't intensifying.

It's almost as though the conditions are ripe to drive intensification (hence the shrinking eye), but something's simultaneously holding her back in equal measure.

Edited September 21, 2017 by crimsone

[crimsone]

125 mph in the NW eyewall, and a drop to 954mb...

... we finally have a little intensification. Only took 24 hours or so!

[crimsone]

Spoke too soon. Subsequent VDM said 957mb, C34 closed.

[Cog]

Not much of an eye left, and recon is having trouble finding the centre. The latest dropsonde is in, readings at 959hPa.

Still no signs of intensification, every now and then there's a burst of strong convection, but it looks like with the colder waters to the North and the landmass to the South the driving forces just aren't consistent enough.

[karyo]

1 hour ago, Cog said:

Not much of an eye left, and recon is having trouble finding the centre. The latest dropsonde is in, readings at 959hPa.

Still no signs of intensification, every now and then there's a burst of strong convection, but it looks like with the colder waters to the North and the landmass to the South the driving forces just aren't consistent enough.

I wonder whether the models will adjust her further west. Already this morning the models bring her track closer to the eastern seaboard.

[crimsone]

This article feels to me, from a scientific perspective, as though it's strung together a bunch of flimsy frequency observations, and declared a trend without recourse to a solid P-value. Indeed, based on the actual science, a recent statement from the NHC said that while they expect increasing SSTs to increase mean hurricane intensity in the years to come, we can't actually say that that's happening just yet.

That said... the lack of a solid P-value can be equally attributable to insufficient data, as much as it can be attributed to an incorrect observation. Framed in that context, this article makes for interesting reading, and may be worth bearing in mind...
 

 

[Cog]

Looks like it might be finally starting to re-intensify properly. Some strong convection on the North side, and an eye is starting to reform unless that's just a momentary blip.

 

[karyo]

Another correction westwards in Maria's track from the GFS and UKMO. 

[crimsone]

A dam is failing/has failed in PR
 

 

[Cog]

Pressure has dropped a little since yesterday, now down to 952, winds at 126mph. Looks a lot more symmetrical than it was yesterday, and the eyes cleared out too.

She's completed the turn towards North, and travelling out into open sea. 

(Image http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium)

[karyo]

Some of the models take Maria even further west than yesterday, right on the US coast, before slowly moving northeast.

[Fiona Robertson]

I see she's reformed a distinct eye. As an aside the remnants of Lee have reorganised and it's now being categorised as a tropical storm. 

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Fiona Robertson said:

I see she's reformed a distinct eye. As an aside the remnants of Lee have reorganised and it's now being categorised as a tropical storm. 

Strange season.

[Fiona Robertson]

16 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Strange season.

Yup and the strangest thing is the disagreement between the models on what Lee is gonna do. At 5 days there's a 900 mile difference,also one model says Lee will dissipate, another predicts intensification to a cat2/3 hurricane. Read the NHC discussion. The takeaway I got is "We haven't a clue!"

 

Edited to add this image and ask what is that thing forming between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic? Taken from here
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium

 

Edited September 23, 2017 by Fiona Robertson

[Iceberg]

3 hours ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Yup and the strangest thing is the disagreement between the models on what Lee is gonna do. At 5 days there's a 900 mile difference,also one model says Lee will dissipate, another predicts intensification to a cat2/3 hurricane. Read the NHC discussion. The takeaway I got is "We haven't a clue!"

 

Edited to add this image and ask what is that thing forming between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic? Taken from here
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium

 

It's a degrading instability spot caused by the moisture of Maria outflow and the mountain terrain of PR. It will certainly be causing problems for the poor people there. 

[Iceberg]

Maria is certainly trend west in her paths. Latest gfs has her stalling for 12-24 hrs very close to the us. 

Maria is also looking ok ATM on radar. Not perfect but certainly better. If she ever gets good convection around the eye winds will respond rapidly. 

[karyo]

The following video is talking about the slight shift westwards with some impacts for north Carolina.

This westward shift in the models has been continuous over the last 24 hours.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/hurricane-marias-potential-east-coast-impacts 

Edited September 23, 2017 by karyo

[crimsone]

57 minutes ago, karyo said:

The following video is talking about the slight shift westwards with some impacts for north Carolina.

This westward shift in the models has been continuous over the last 24 hours.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/hurricane-marias-potential-east-coast-impacts 

I haven't checked in a while, but last I knew, a dip in the jetstream over the US expected to move westwards was the thing expected to lift Maria northward. Not sure what the status of the relevant pattern is now.

[crimsone]

Meanwhile... we seem to now have some footage of that dam failure in progress in PR following Maria.

Essentially, it appears the spillway has massively degraded under the pressure, and is slowly eating its way back to the water behind it as it churns away at the underlying soil.

This has the potential to be really, really bad.
 

 

[Cog]

I wonder how much it would cost for a seat on that plane. Looks like a fun ride.

Eyes gone again. Masses of convection on the west half of the hurriance, but the east half is stubbornly inactive.

[karyo]

48 minutes ago, Cog said:

I wonder how much it would cost for a seat on that plane. Looks like a fun ride.

Eyes gone again. Masses of convection on the west half of the hurriance, but the east half is stubbornly inactive.

Another small shift westwards on the 18z with Maria right on the Carolina coast at 96 hours.

[Martin R]

49 minutes ago, karyo said:

Another small shift westwards on the 18z with Maria right on the Carolina coast at 96 hours.

Latest from MetO saying her forward speed has slowed. Hope she don't do a Jose and stall,not the best place to park with warm waters and no shear.