Hurricane Maria

[alexisj9]

5 hours ago, crimsone said:

The eye of Maria had actually reformed almost immediately on leaving the island. What she needed to do was to strengthen that closed eye and clear it out... What she's actually done is formed an outer eyewall at 36 miles, with the inner 16 mile eyewall now open southwest. Instead of clearing her eye, she started a new ERC.

Consequently, far from being the Cat 4 we expected, or even the Cat 3 we might have thought... she's now only Category 2. I mentioned earlier that PR really gave her a good bashing, and it would appear that it did indeed do so. Pressure is still hovering at just below 960, but as soon as that ERC makes a little progress, I would expect it to begin dropping again - but unless she forms another pinhole eye (and I don't see why she would), then I wouldn't expect the pressure to exactly bomb. I mean, it might, but I'm not expecting it... she has far too much re-organising to do... though as with ERCs more generally, she's liable to become a wider storm.

The image below shows it all really - she's got a massive hole in her, and it isn't the central eye. For every mb she could be dropping, she's leaking out just as much pressure. It'll be, at my best guess, 3 to 4 hours or so minimum before she stands even a chance of making progress in terms of any meaningful re- intensification.

 

In the Dvorak image below you can see that she's just starting to pull around that black band of thicker cloud/colder tops as she repairs her CDO, making it more central and even than, well, entirely lopsided as per the beginning of the loop. Maria has plenty of work to do, but she's getting there.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/15L_floater.html

Maybe its the same ERC she started just before landfall. Both walls were probably there right through. Which although confusing ment wind wise pr dodged a bulit. Still wondering on the flash flooding stituation though.

[Iceberg]

Maria looks quite angry again with a large eye. Some tell tail signs of a zebra doughnut with rippling and the centre of the eye on loop had considerable spinning within in. All of this should lead to the eye strinking. I've got a feeling she is getting stronger though. 

As for path, not long now until she will stay out to see, the models are Generally backing away from any land interaction at least whilst a tropical Storm. 

Personally I prefer the look of the larger eye storms. 

[FetchCB]

Mission 12 into Maria just underway

[FetchCB]

Upper cloud structure continues to improve

 

[Fiona Robertson]

This is the best webcam I can find. It's not perfect, but if you're into watching wee waves it's the one for you!

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/dominican-republic/samana/las-terrenas/playa-bonita.html

 

Edit - and 5 mins after I posted that the cam went down... sigh...

Edited September 21, 2017 by Fiona Robertson

[Fiona Robertson]

This one is further west so the surf isn't quite as high, but interesting to watch.

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/dominican-republic/puerto-plata/cabarete/cabarete-kite-beach.html

[crimsone]

Never seen a diamond shaped eye before, I confess!

 

She's, never the less, pulling in that eye quite nicely now, as per this before and after...



Edit: Recon have just passed through the middle. Still waiting for the vortex message, but they recorded a 112.8 mph wind in the NW eye. Between that, the earlier info posted by @Iceberg, and the comparative images here, it's probably fair to say that she's up and running again, with intensification getting well underway.

Edited September 21, 2017 by crimsone

[JeffC]

11 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Never seen a diamond shaped eye before, I confess!

 

maybe even hurricanes are going digital?

[Iceberg]

Not your typical eye. It certainly doesn't look right ATM. Possible a decoupling, possible a much smaller eye forming. Possibly a partial eye collapse. 

Their is very little se rotation and much more north to nw.

[Cog]

 

18 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Never seen a diamond shaped eye before, I confess!

 

 

Whatever it's doing, it's definitely shrinking now.

 

And for no reason at all, here's a nice desktop background.

[crimsone]

4 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Not your typical eye. It certainly doesn't look right ATM. Possible a decoupling, possible a much smaller eye forming. Possibly a partial eye collapse. 

Their is very little se rotation and much more north to nw.

Could it be a rapid and powerful burst of convection to the NW driving around the eye and causing it to bunch up SW?

[Fiona Robertson]

21 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Never seen a diamond shaped eye before, I confess!

 

Diamonds are a girl's best friend...

[FetchCB]

3 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Could it be a rapid and powerful burst of convection to the NW driving around the eye and causing it to bunch up SW?

Could possible the interaction with Hispaniola to its SW creating Friction and introducing drier air ?

http://www.hurricanescience.org/science/science/hurricaneandland/

[crimsone]

6 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Could possible the interaction with Hispaniola to its SW creating Friction and introducing drier air ?

http://www.hurricanescience.org/science/science/hurricaneandland/

Judging by the vapour loop, it could well be a bit of both...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/html5-wv-long.html

Edit: Latest VDM says C38, closed, and 959mb.

Edited September 21, 2017 by crimsone

[Iceberg]

35 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Could it be a rapid and powerful burst of convection to the NW driving around the eye and causing it to bunch up SW?

Possible, my main concern is the direction of the winds in the clear section of the eye, it seems to indicate the true centre of the llcc is under the blob of convection sticking out a little.

[Iceberg]

Just had another look Looks like its a massive strink of the eye from 40m to 10m with a clear cut across with towers in the NE rim i.e intensification.

[MattTarrant]

2 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Just had another look Looks like its a massive strink of the eye from 40m to 10m with a clear cut across with towers in the NE rim i.e intensification.

Love your posts Iceberg, however, your misspelling of 'Shrink' has aggravated me. NO T. Now continue haha 

[Hurricane Debby]

2 hours ago, Fiona Robertson said:

This is the best webcam I can find. It's not perfect, but if you're into watching wee waves it's the one for you!

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/dominican-republic/samana/las-terrenas/playa-bonita.html

 

Edit - and 5 mins after I posted that the cam went down... sigh...

Its back now !

[crimsone]

122mph 10 sec sfc winds in the NW. Awaiting vortex message.

The winds being found are supporting intensification, even if the central pressure isn't showing it yet.

[Iceberg]

37 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

Love your posts Iceberg, however, your misspelling of 'Shrink' has aggravated me. NO T. Now continue haha 

And me being a teacher !

i blame the fact that 95% of my posts are done quickly on my phone.

[Hurricane Alley]

What was a pleasant beach near puerto plata. Heavy rain and winds picking up again. 

[FetchCB]

Current NHC Discussion talks about Maria is crossing reduced Ocenaic Heat Content in the wake of Irma .

I think that this can just be seen in the depths of the 26C Isotherm chart which is generally required to a depth of 50m

Would explain why it has struggled after leaving Puerto Rico to get going again

 

[alexisj9]

18 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Current NHC Discussion talks about Maria is crossing reduced Ocenaic Heat Content in the wake of Irma .

I think that this can just be seen in the depths of the 26C Isotherm chart which is generally required to a depth of 50m

Would explain why it has struggled after leaving Puerto Rico to get going again

 

Yep and may also be why she weakened just before pr, irma's eye didn't cross but the storm did shake up and cool the water in that area. 

[Iceberg]

Maria wins the prize for the most unusual and damn right wierd eyes. 

Ive put the normal one from earlier as well. 

Edited September 21, 2017 by Iceberg

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Maria wins the prize for the most unusual and damn right wierd eyes. 

Ive put the normal one from earlier as well. 

Em what is she doing.