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Hurricane Maria


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Not sure where you got that from?

Can't find that anywhere in the data.

Looks flagged,i did say not comfirmed.

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Looks flagged,i did say not comfirmed.

*nods* Fair enough.

I just can't find any record of it, flagged or otherwise. Not saying that you're not seeing it of course... just that I can't see it, and I'm interested.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

*nods* Fair enough.

I just can't find any record of it, flagged or otherwise. Not saying that you're not seeing it of course... just that I can't see it, and I'm interested.

Me too:D

just going on what these guys are saying,tut:nonono:

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

This guy has just said:laugh:

RhodaHarley:-There's been a 168 knots sonde -- that's about 195 mph

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

Recon literally flying into the eyewall right at this moment!

Oh, the joys of modern technology!

Wish I'd had this 12 years back when I was watching Wilma, but Maria mostly makes up for it I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Edit:sorry not live:nonono:

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

Well, this is all getting a bit serious...
Dvorak:59c1abfbcde07_ScreenShot2017-09-20at00_43_54.thumb.png.bc7fe7bc2b4bc5a63951269205c86667.png

Funktop:59c1ac1650868_ScreenShot2017-09-20at00_44_20.thumb.png.06eea649515a77a90977d1c7d3a10419.png

In particular, note the growth of that massive green band of highest intensity in the funktop, and the matching grey band in the Dvorak.

Neither of these bands existed a few hours back.

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, crimsone said:

Well, this is all getting a bit serious...
Dvorak:59c1abfbcde07_ScreenShot2017-09-20at00_43_54.thumb.png.bc7fe7bc2b4bc5a63951269205c86667.png

Funktop:59c1ac1650868_ScreenShot2017-09-20at00_44_20.thumb.png.06eea649515a77a90977d1c7d3a10419.png

:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL

Yes it is an absolute beast unfortunately, I hope those in its path stay safe.

905.7mb?

Edited by chillyblast
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Just like to thankyou all for the info on these hurricanes of late,if i had the time then i would do the same,keep up the good work guys:)

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

Pressure down to 906 according to the latest HDObs (905.7 mb). 

SW eyeway has 10 sec winds of 155.4 mph.

What I'm shocked at is just how consistent these winds are right around the eye.

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL

Crazy, and still plenty of time to go lower.

Do you think this thing could hit 190s sustained?

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
3 minutes ago, chillyblast said:

Crazy, and still plenty of time to go lower.

Do you think this thing could hit 190s sustained?

I don't think it's going to have time before landfall... which is no bad thing, to be fair. It's going to be pushing for sub-900 intensity though.

That said... Latest VDM:
 

Quote

000
URNT12 KNHC 192353
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL152017
A. 19/23:36:50Z
B. 16 deg 58 min N
  064 deg 14 min W
C. 700 mb 2296 m
D. 138 kt
E. 294 deg 5 nm
F. 022 deg 142 kt
G. 294 deg 5 nm
H. 911 mb
I. 12 C / 3048 m
J. 21 C / 3043 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C9
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0515A MARIA              OB 27
MAX FL WIND 157 KT 085 / 5 NM 22:21:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 360 / 12 KT
;

Looks like the pressure plateaued there for the last hour or so... or there's an anomalous reading from the sonde, but that'd be unusual.

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL

So this is pretty rare no? tops at almost 70,000 feet.

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

Mission 05 is bugging out.

Mission 06 has taken some time out from travelling in the shape of a penis to drop down to the south of the hurricane and is currently having a look. If we're lucky, it might try to take a pass or two at the eye.

I still want to know what these missions that drop sondes at regular intervals in advance of a storm's path are gathering data for.

 

Screen Shot 2017-09-20 at 01.21.26.png

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL

Yes if it continues on at this rate it will be looking at sub 900 by landfall potentially, eye now just about visible on the San Juan radar:

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=jua

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury
5 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

:shok:

Sorry what do these areas mean.. and pink cloud tops? Am a complete novice on this. Thank you! 

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: The more the merrier.
  • Location: Staffordshire
5 hours ago, crimsone said:

Mission 05 is bugging out.

Mission 06 has taken some time out from travelling in the shape of a penis to drop down to the south of the hurricane and is currently having a look. If we're lucky, it might try to take a pass or two at the eye.

I still want to know what these missions that drop sondes at regular intervals in advance of a storm's path are gathering data for.

 

Screen Shot 2017-09-20 at 01.21.26.png

My guess is that they're getting extra data on the conditions ahead of the hurricane so they can make more accurate forecasts of the path.

Latest observations from flight 7 are 912hPa, looks to be weakening now as the NW part is passing over Puerto Rico. My untrained eye thinks it might see an ERC ready to start too.

 

13 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

Sorry what do these areas mean.. and pink cloud tops? Am a complete novice on this. Thank you! 

Hurricanes are driven by hot air rising. Stronger signals in the infra-red satellite images means stronger convection, and that can mean the hurricane is getting stronger, or at least maintaining a high strength.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Confirmed 910 mb on 7am nhc advisory

winds just about holding up at 165 mph sustained

Not as large as Irma was - hopefully something will turn up to save the eastern side of Puerto Rico from her worst. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

I think something has turned up a clear rapid erc is underway the inner eye has winds falling to 90-100kts the outer eye already upto 120. Pressure at the outer eye starts at 960-950. 

If this can finish before landfall winds could be cat 5 if not I think cat 3-4 winds for Puerto Rico is more likely   

 

Recon just found 912 pressure and  surface winds in the sw quad of 111kts. A much enlargered max wind field 

IMG_1336.PNG

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