Hurricane Maria

[Had Worse]

Water now pushing up through decking planks on the St Croix webcam. Cant see that lasting too long before it becomes a raft.

[knocker]

 

[Iceberg]

Pressure just recorded 912.7mb. 

So officially lower than Irma. 

Still strengthening 

Edited September 19, 2017 by Iceberg

[crimsone]

So, going by the latest recon fix of center and the most distant SFMR surface wind along the flight path to reach a minimum of 73 mph...

... it would appear that hurricane winds extend out from 17.550N 63.217W for about 118km to 16.767N 63.967W.

In laymans terms, this perfect storm has 73 MpH sustained surface winds (Cat 1 hurricane strength) extending out from the center on a radius of 73 miles, give or take the differences in each quadrant.

[crimsone]

21 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Pressure just recorded 912.7mb. 

So officially lower than Irma. 

Still strengthening 

Judging by her forward motion and continuing intensification, she has a very good chance of going sub-900mb.

Interestingly though, Recon isn't seeing (or at least isn't mentioning) an outer eye at the moment... but never the less reported a closed eye that's 10 miles wide - twice as large as earlier. Max Flt winds observed at 148kt.

They caught a 160 MpH 10 sec sustained sfc wind on the way out of the eye, in the SW eyewall.

Edited September 19, 2017 by crimsone

[Had Worse]

She certainly looks in the zone so to speak.  This is looking very nasty for PR and St Croix.

Edited September 19, 2017 by Had Worse

[crimsone]

*slight* wobble to the north. Nothing to phone home about on its own.

Happily churning away en-route to death and destruction, aimed right for PR's most populated areas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/html5-swir-short.html

[chillyblast]

St Croix webcam? 

 

160 mph sustained, 195 mph gusts, not good (again) 8am landfall in PR.

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/puerto-rico/gusts-3h-mph/20170920-1200z.html

 

Edited September 19, 2017 by chillyblast

[Had Worse]

Apparently this is arouns 50mph, think what 190mph is going to look like..... unfortunately this cm wont show us unless by some miracle.

[crimsone]

Getting kind of annoyed at idiots in youtube video chats advocating the dropping of nuclear bombs into hurricanes. It isn't a good idea.

It doesn't work, and the only weather event in the North Atlantic more disastrous than a Cat 5 Hurricane would be a radioactive Cat 5 hurricane.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html

Edited September 19, 2017 by crimsone

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, crimsone said:

Getting kind of annoyed at idiots in youtube video chats advocating the dropping of nuclear bombs into hurricanes. It isn't a good idea.

It doesn't work, and the only weather event in the North Atlantic more disastrous than a Cat 5 Hurricane would be a radioactive Cat 5 hurricane.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html

Yes was reading the comment section and thought the same. Mother nature is much more powerful than most of us think.

 

Off to bed now and will awake around 6am BST probably to a blank youtube channel.

[Alpine glow]

2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Getting kind of annoyed at idiots in youtube video chats advocating the dropping of nuclear bombs into hurricanes. It isn't a good idea.

It doesn't work, and the only weather event in the North Atlantic more disastrous than a Cat 5 Hurricane would be a radioactive Cat 5 hurricane.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html

I have no words.  Absolutely unbelievable.  Let's nuke a hurricane 

[crimsone]

174.9 MpH surface wind just found by recon in the northern eyewall.

Just looking at the HDObs, and they've found 180.7 MpH flt winds, and extrapolate a pressure of 909.3mb

Edited September 19, 2017 by crimsone

[Iceberg]

Pressure now sub 910 at 909 winds higher as well should upgrade at 170-175 mph. 

[chillyblast]

Grim reading, and potential to go lower.

[Iceberg]

Longer term gfs has taken a big step towards the ec. Much more like it with Maria now affecting the conus. 

[crimsone]

As you'd expect of an intensifying hurricane at this strength...


Running only ever so slightly north of the forecast track at the moment.

If the NW winds don't get you, the SE precipitation will!

Edited September 19, 2017 by crimsone

[crimsone]

Official intensity set at 910mb, with a 9 mile closed eye per the latest VDM.

[chillyblast]

Aside from the destruction, the track across PR looks to be traversing the flattest area around the mountainous ridges in the centre of the island, meaning less weakening.

[crimsone]

Just now, chillyblast said:

Aside from the destruction, the track across PR looks to be traversing the flattest area around the mountainous ridges in the centre of the island, meaning less weakening.

It's got a fair rate in the forward momentum too, minimising time over land. I full well expect her to drop to Cat 4 by the time she's over the other side - it's just physics after all. Not convinced her organisation will be affected too badly though.

[chillyblast]

Catherines Hope weather station now reporting 72+mph gusts.

I agree, CAT 4 on exit but with not much to do to regain CAT 5 status thereafter, I just found it odd how the track was so precise.

[crimsone]

Just now, chillyblast said:

I agree, CAT 4 on exit but with not much to do to regain CAT 5 status thereafter, I just found it odd how the track was so precise.

If PR were a needle, then Maria is threading it.

[chillyblast]

It is incredible how quickly this hurricane attained CAT 5, but still not quite the power of Irma just yet.

[crimsone]

Recon (Mission 05) is heading in for a (somewhat unusual) 5th pass at the eye as we speak. Can't imagine this mission has a hell of a lot of fuel left at this point, so it may well be the last... or we may get a 6th afterwards, if we're very lucky. 

Mission 06 is drawing a penis with it's flight path, as seems to be a thing that Recon does with one mission per day, and as such isn't going into Maria. (OK, not really a penis, but I've seen them do this a good few times now, and the flight path by the end looks vaguely like a penis, and nobody can tell me otherwise!). If anybody knows what these missions are for exactly, I'd be very interested to know!

In any case, this might be the last vortex data of the evening.

Edited September 19, 2017 by crimsone

[Allseasons-Si]

WOW,latest recon found 193mph winds in Maria,i don't know yet if comfirmed.