Hurricane Maria

[Iceberg]

Tiny whinny eye. 

[FetchCB]

6 minutes ago, Alpine glow said:

I've been watching 10 mins and I see a difference in the sea.  It appears to be rising.  I read that the eye is about 100 miles out from St Croix.. is this correct?

As per the last public advisory it was 110 miles from St Croix. 

Sea will rise slowly as long as St Croix stays on the northern side of Maria but the real flooding will come with the storm surge 

[cowdog]

Ec at t168 is clearly a us conus hit. 

Very different trough pattern over the north east etc.  It could be an anomaly or could be a new trend. 

Regardless the pattern change is at t120 and you would be foolish to discount the ec at that timeframe. 

 

Key is Jose. If Jose dies it seems the models show Maria has a good chance of a hit on North America, if Jose keeps power and lingers then its kept out at sea and the 2 could do a dance out at sea.

Edited September 19, 2017 by cowdog

[FetchCB]

7 minutes ago, crimsone said:

That was about 50 mins ago...

A closed eye just 5 miles wide.

This doesn't feel good 

Wilma was just 2 nautical miles  andand tjstthat had sustained winds of 185 mph 

[Cog]

7 minutes ago, Alpine glow said:

There has been a 7.1 Mag earthquake in Mexico City too.. I wonder if this is anything to do with Maria?  http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/mexico-earthquake-today-city-latest-updates-today-magnitude-damage-a7956251.html

There was a magnitude 8 earthquake off the coast of mexico last week, the one today was most likely related to that one and the aftershocks. There has been some correlation between hurricanes and earthquakes noted in the past, but there's barely any noticeable correlation at all. 

[knocker]

[Dorsetbred]

14 minutes ago, knocker said:

Interesting how compared to the Ec forecast, this one clearly has Maria not making landfall (apart from a single outlier) ...of course it will still be felt along the coastline even on most of the forecasted tracks

[Iceberg]

Pressure down to 915ish. 

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Pressure down to 915ish. 

If correct, that's a 12mb drop since the last NHC update. Horrendous for those in the way, Puerta Rico especially, given the large population. 

[Cog]

7 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Pressure down to 915ish. 

And 153kts winds seen too.

[Iceberg]

Just now, Ice Day said:

If correct, that's a 12mb drop since the last NHC update. Horrendous for those in the way, Puerta Rico especially, given the large population. 

Yep and about a 5mb drop in 90 mins. 

They are having problems with the vortex drops mainly as the eye is so small and the wall so intense that 50-60 mph winds are inside the eye and blowing the drop about  

I don't think I've ever seen an eye get so small that it basically becomes a large single hurricane wind mass. 

[Norrance]

4 minutes ago, Cog said:

And 153kts winds seen too.

That would be 176 mph. 

 

 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

Has anyone heard from Dominica?

[crimsone]

1 hour ago, FetchCB said:

Wilma was just 2 nautical miles  andand tjstthat had sustained winds of 185 mph 

 

2 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Yep and about a 5mb drop in 90 mins. 

They are having problems with the vortex drops mainly as the eye is so small and the wall so intense that 50-60 mph winds are inside the eye and blowing the drop about  

I don't think I've ever seen an eye get so small that it basically becomes a large single hurricane wind mass. 

I remember watching Wilma quite well... and being in utter awe of her eye becoming tighter with each ERC before reaching that incredible 2 mile diameter.

The risk of a pinhole eye is, of course, particularly rapid intensification, as seems to be happening here.

On the plus side, a pinhole eye means that she's potentially vulnerable to prolonged ERC... or not... time will tell. 

[Fiona Robertson]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Has anyone heard from Dominica?

I haven't heard a thing and I've had the news on all day. Getting very worrying.

[milkmaid]

seems not really ,there was a report from a ham radio chap ,i've been listening to this ,https://tunein.com/radio/Wice-QFM-951-s89626/

[crimsone]

Today is not a good day to be on Puerto Rico.

I find myself wondering whether that forecast Cat 4 landfall might be more tha product of hope than of science.

And here she is making her way to the top of the funktop chart in the last couple of frames of the loop...

Edited September 19, 2017 by crimsone
added funktop

[crimsone]

Also, is it just me... or did she just top out the grey chart in the Dvorak image?

 

[Iceberg]

1 minute ago, crimsone said:

Also, is it just me... or did she just top out the grey chart in the Dvorak image?

 

She's been topping out the grey whenever she goes upto t7.0. 

Amazing really maybe a new grey can be introduced 

[FetchCB]

5 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Also, is it just me... or did she just top out the grey chart in the Dvorak image?

 

Without being flippant, because I'm on no way in any danger, but this looks like a picture of death

I'm in two minds... On the one hand marvelling at Mother nature andI it's power but on the other side sitting here with sick heavy feeling at the destruction and almost inevitable death that it will bring 

[crimsone]

10 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Without being flippant, because I'm on no way in any danger, but this looks like a picture of death

I'm in two minds... On the one hand marvelling at Mother nature andI it's power but on the other side sitting here with sick heavy feeling at the destruction and almost inevitable death that it will bring 

'Tis a sad fact, but you can't indulge in a fascination with hurricanes during the atlantic season without, alas, having to temper it a little with the morbid certainty of death and destruction.

On the one hand, there's a certain beauty and perfection in the strongest of these heat engines - even more so when you consider that each is dealing more energy than a good number of hydrogen bombs, and moreover still when you consider that these storms are probably essential to an earth climate conducive to life, both at the tropics and the mid latitudes.

On the other hand, with a 5 mile eye (and I fancy it might even be tightening slightly), it's basically a mega-tornado of death and destruction headed straight for civilisation. On the plus side, at least the south of Puerto Rico has a relatively deep ocean shelf, which should help minimise the surge height.

PR's only hope is that it somehow manages to take a big gulp of the dry air to the NNW, but I don't see it happening

Edited September 19, 2017 by crimsone
close bracket

[SMU]

What was irmas lowest central pressure V Maria

its funny all the irma hype & Maria has crept slightly under the radar in terms of expectations-

looking at the trajectory we have a good 5--7 hours im favourable waters before landfall

an opportunity to have a run@sub 900mb-

it would need a rate of about 2-3MB an hour - so not out of the question...

[Iceberg]

Nhc have updated and now finally predict a Puerto Rico cat 5 landfall. 

They also mention the double eye wall. It's starting to show up nicely on radar with the outer really starting to strengthen. I am not usurp personally it will mean much weakening. 

[crimsone]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

What was irmas lowest central pressure V Maria

its funny all the irma hype & Maria has crept slightly under the radar in terms of expectations-

looking at the trajectory we have a good 5--7 hours im favourable waters before landfall

an opportunity to have a run@sub 900mb-

it would need a rate of about 2-3MB an hour - so not out of the question...

Between 1752z and 1942z it dropped 4mb, so it's certainly on course.

It appears (though you never quite know) that recon is heading in again from the NE shortly, so we should soon be able to see what the trend looks like.

[FetchCB]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

What was irmas lowest central pressure V Maria

its funny all the irma hype & Maria has crept slightly under the radar in terms of expectations-

looking at the trajectory we have a good 5--7 hours im favourable waters before landfall

an opportunity to have a [email protected] 900mb-

it would need a rate of about 2-3MB an hour - so not out of the question...

I suspect it's crept under the radar as up to now as a US landfall has not been forecast, however I saw earlier that the models are now hinting that this might not be the case.