Hurricane Maria

[Iceberg]

8 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Bit of FB text from their PM 

 So far we have lost all what money can buy and replace. My greatest fear for the morning is that we will wake to news of serious physical injury and possible deaths as a result of likely landslides triggered by persistent rains.

So, far the winds have swept away the roofs of almost every person I have spoken to or otherwise made contact with. The roof to my own official residence was among the first to go and this apparently triggered an avalanche of torn away roofs in the city and the countryside.

Come tomorrow morning we will hit the road, as soon as the all clear is given, in search of the injured and those trapped in the rubble.

I am honestly not preoccupied with physical damage at this time, because it is devastating...indeed, mind boggling. My focus now is in rescuing the trapped and securing medical assistance for the injured.

We will need help, my friend, we will need help of all kinds. Roosevelt Skerrit

I am hoping that the houses sheltered by high ground might only be slightly damaged. For those without the shelter it can't be good.

[Jo Farrow]

1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

I am hoping that the houses sheltered by high ground might only be slightly damaged. For those without the shelter it can't be good.

That image with the eye right over  the Island was sickening

[Jo Farrow]

Where next for Maria, Puerto Rico is forecast. I had to look up how the Islands lie with BVI and UVIs. St Croix looks very vulnerable, PR to the left 

[Had Worse]

Lookinhg at the latest wobble, shes turned west on the last frame.

The fact shes in open water for a few hours could give her an even bigger boost.

Edited September 19, 2017 by Had Worse

[Summer Sun]

 

[Polar Maritime]

Not good news this morning, What a season this is turning out to be. 

[Cog]

34 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Lookinhg at the latest wobble, shes turned west on the last frame.

The fact shes in open water for a few hours could give her an even bigger boost.

I'm not seeing it. Looks more or less dead on the same line as yesterday.

It lost some intensity over Dominica, but once it's another 30 miles or so ahead it's looking like it could re-intensify again very quickly.

Mission into Maria is on its way back and mission 4 is already on its way. Last recorded dropsonde reading was 943, I reckon mission 4 could find 930 on their first pass.

(Image source : http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium)

[Had Worse]

12 minutes ago, Cog said:

I'm not seeing it. Looks more or less dead on the same line as yesterday.

It lost some intensity over Dominica, but once it's another 30 miles or so ahead it's looking like it could re-intensify again very quickly.

Mission into Maria is on its way back and mission 4 is already on its way. Last recorded dropsonde reading was 943, I reckon mission 4 could find 930 on their first pass.

(Image source : http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium)

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

I agree with you now that it has gone back on a NW track.

If you look at the link, from around 2am until 3.30 am ish the eye was going West.

[Fiona Robertson]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

I agree with you now that it has gone back on a NW track.

If you look at the link, from around 2am until 3.30 am ish the eye was going West.

I'm so glad someone else has noticed these wobbles. I thought I was losing my mind! Irma did the same and that's one of the reasons she went further west than initially predicted.

[Had Worse]

I could be wrong but all models including ECM have a track taking her NW, thats not to say thay are right but more agreement than with the track of Irma.

[FetchCB]

Thing to bear in mind ,especially when looking over a very short time frame, is that a storm of this intensity is more likely to "wobble". I have no scientific evidence as for the reason but my sense tells me that it is being steered by a ridge to the north, this ridge is not uniform ( what is in nature :-) ) and that the wobbles are Maria pushing against the ridge and finding soft spots in the ridge although this could be entirely wrong 

 

[smich]

Most likely to be trochoidal motions, usually caused by uneven distribution of convection within the storm and/or changes in structure. NHC will use up to 24 hours motion for forecasting. 

[Cog]

7 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Thing to bear in mind ,especially when looking over a very short time frame, is that a storm of this intensity is more likely to "wobble". I have no scientific evidence as for the reason but my sense tells me that it is being steered by a ridge to the north, this ridge is not uniform ( what is in nature :-) ) and that the wobbles are Maria pushing against the ridge and finding soft spots in the ridge although this could be entirely wrong 

 

With wobbles on that sort of scale, I'd guess it's mainly just due to effects within the region of the hurricane itself. Over open sea it'll spin in a more perfect circle, but as it passes over islands one quadrant will be trying to spin faster than another, and the momentum in that is going to set up the wobble.

[Cog]

53 minutes ago, Cog said:

 

Mission into Maria is on its way back and mission 4 is already on its way. Last recorded dropsonde reading was 943, I reckon mission 4 could find 930 on their first pass.

 

160mph surface winds in the eye wall just now?

I'm eagerly awaiting the next pressure reading. If it's 930 I might go out and buy a lottery ticket.

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Cog said:

160mph surface winds in the eye wall just now?

I'm eagerly awaiting the next pressure reading. If it's 930 I might go out and buy a lottery ticket.

I'd buy a ticket anyway with £120M JP.

Last I heard, she was 2MPH off a cat 5 and id forecast to hit Puerto Rico at that strength. PR has not had a CAt 5 make landfall for 85 years!!

[Fiona Robertson]

5 minutes ago, Cog said:

160mph surface winds in the eye wall just now?

I'm eagerly awaiting the next pressure reading. If it's 930 I might go out and buy a lottery ticket.

They just got a 930.3. Is that close enough for your lottery ticket?

[FetchCB]

St Croix next in line whether it will be a direct hit im not sure 

 

[Had Worse]

5 numbers and 1 star

[Fiona Robertson]

Also earthcam has a link

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/virginislands/stcroix/?cam=mmstcroix_hd

[Harry]

8 hours ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Thanks for the info. I've been watching this system since it first appeared and everything about it filled me with dread. Thing is, I'm not even that knowledgeable about meteorology, but this year with Harvey, Irma and now Maria they just looked "wrong" if you know what I mean. Jose didn't give me that gut feeling. I have friends in Florida, one still without power since Irma, and I was begging them to get out of Florida while Irma was a Cat 3 in the mid Atlantic. My friend in Tampa assured me Irma was hitting the wrong coast... and then it moved further west each day... sigh. Maria has that westerly "feel" to it as well and I can't say why. As I said, I know very little about weather systems, I just watch them avidly so all of this is just uninformed opinion... but Maria still "feels wrong".

Totally agree @Fiona Robertson. I tend to feel (and operate) in the same way and the first time I saw Maria as a mere yellow X on the NHC forecast map, I felt the same as Irma. I would anticipate westward adjustments but not perhaps to the same extent as Irma. I think the Carolinas st the very least should keep a close eye on Maria in the longer term.

Got my eye on a robust looking storm cluster on the African W coast too although NHC not too fussed at this stage.

[Iceberg]

So from that recon run 150kts were found but I believe flagged.  139kts  unflagged. 

With 100-110kts in the se. 

Maria is certainly boarderline cat 5 probably just tipping into it tbh. 

The area of 100+ winds though has grown quite a bit in the last 12 hrs as she expands her wind field. 

[Had Worse]

Those little waves will be no more soon.

Given the South or SW facing position, this may get a direct hit if Maria cuts between here (St Croix) and the East of Puerto Rico.

Edit, This cam is on the North coast, sorry.

Edited September 19, 2017 by Had Worse

[Iceberg]

Nhc agree they have just tipped her in a last min change to a cat 5 due  to recon. 

[Had Worse]

A few mph either way in that intensity zone may change it to a cat 5 but the damage is about the same, devastating.

[Harry]

BBC already reporting she's back to Cat 5