Hurricane Maria

[Iceberg]

The eye wall has no chance now of avoiding Dominica pop. 75000ish

 

[Fiona Robertson]

1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

The eye wall has no chance now of avoiding Dominica pop. 75000ish

 

This is a nightmare scenario for Dominica! It's gonna be a Cat 5 when it hits.

[Iceberg]

As expect nhc have officially updated 

Maria is now a CAT 5, 929mb,160mph sustained. 

[Daniel*]

Oh god not again.

 

[AderynCoch]

I make that a 21mb drop in two and a half hours.

Holy crap.

[toggerob]

The Caribbean being hit by Irma during her prime, side-swiped by Jose, and now being hit by Maria just as she hits CAT5. Still with another 10 weeks to go until this year's Atlantic Hurricane Season ends officially.

[Iceberg]

Eye wall has just touched the island. Gusts to 200mph. 

[AderynCoch]

3 hours ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Does anyone have any idea about previous fast intensifications that we can compare with Maria?

The last time I saw the NHC use the words "dreaded pinhole eye" was with Wilma in 2005. Wilma went from a tropical storm to the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record (882mb) in just 24 hours. The following are still records in the Atlantic basin to the best of my knowledge:

54mb drop in 6 hours

83mb drop in 12 hours

97mb drop in 24 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL252005_Wilma.pdf

Maria hasn't approached any of those records (not yet anyway) but a drop of 25mb in 3 hours is still remarkable.

Sad to say Dominica is screwed, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are in serious trouble (I still think the British VIrgin Islands ravaged by Irma will escape the worst, but don't count your chickens). The only hurricane in Dominica I can think of in comparison is David in 1979, which devastated the island with 150mph winds - and Maria is already stronger than that.

[Fiona Robertson]

1 minute ago, AderynCoch said:

The last time I saw the NHC use the words "dreaded pinhole eye" was with Wilma in 2005. Wilma went from a tropical storm to the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record (882mb) in just 24 hours. The following are still records in the Atlantic basin to the best of my knowledge:

54mb drop in 6 hours

83mb drop in 12 hours

97mb drop in 24 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL252005_Wilma.pdf

Maria hasn't approached any of those records (not yet anyway) but a drop of 25mb in 3 hours is still remarkable.

Sad to say Dominica is screwed, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are in serious trouble (I still think the British VIrgin Islands ravaged by Irma will escape the worst, but don't count your chickens). The only hurricane in Dominica I can think of in comparison is David in 1979, which devastated the island with 150mph winds - and Maria is already stronger than that.

Thanks for the info. I've been watching this system since it first appeared and everything about it filled me with dread. Thing is, I'm not even that knowledgeable about meteorology, but this year with Harvey, Irma and now Maria they just looked "wrong" if you know what I mean. Jose didn't give me that gut feeling. I have friends in Florida, one still without power since Irma, and I was begging them to get out of Florida while Irma was a Cat 3 in the mid Atlantic. My friend in Tampa assured me Irma was hitting the wrong coast... and then it moved further west each day... sigh. Maria has that westerly "feel" to it as well and I can't say why. As I said, I know very little about weather systems, I just watch them avidly so all of this is just uninformed opinion... but Maria still "feels wrong".

[Cleeve Hill]

Hurricane David resulted in 75% of Dominicans becoming Homeless. 

Maria is a small Hurricane but so intense. Hurricane winds are only 15 miles from the centre. Sadly Dominica is 30 Long so Maria is going to cover the entire island. 

After Dominica its onto US VI & Puerto Rico. P.R have never had a Cat 5 Hurricane. 

Antigua has been spared again - just windy outside - reminds me of rough night back home in Cheltenham, 

[Cleeve Hill]

8 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Thanks for the info. I've been watching this system since it first appeared and everything about it filled me with dread. Thing is, I'm not even that knowledgeable about meteorology, but this year with Harvey, Irma and now Maria they just looked "wrong" if you know what I mean. Jose didn't give me that gut feeling. I have friends in Florida, one still without power since Irma, and I was begging them to get out of Florida while Irma was a Cat 3 in the mid Atlantic. My friend in Tampa assured me Irma was hitting the wrong coast... and then it moved further west each day... sigh. Maria has that westerly "feel" to it as well and I can't say why. As I said, I know very little about weather systems, I just watch them avidly so all of this is just uninformed opinion... but Maria still "feels wrong".

Maria is likely to miss the US mainland due to Jose helping to pull Maria North in a few days. No guarantee but that the current thinking. Depends on how quickly Jose fizzles out and a large High Pressure ridge building in the Mid West. The longer Jose hangs around the better for the US, but then Bermuda comes into view.

What a year !

[Cleeve Hill]

For the satellite on Maria see the link under, 

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

[Fiona Robertson]

4 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

For the satellite on Maria see the link under, 

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

I'm using this
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium

with the infrared overshooting tops and mission overlays. I'm finding it easier on my old eyes and I like the clickable wind flags. 

[AderynCoch]

https://tunein.com/radio/Wice-QFM-951-s89626/

Live radio phone-in from the capital Roseau. Callers talking of roofs being blown off.

[AderynCoch]

9 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

https://tunein.com/radio/Wice-QFM-951-s89626/

Live radio phone-in from the capital Roseau. Callers talking of roofs being blown off.

Reports of Prime Minister's roof gone and house flooded.

[Lakigigar]

The roof of the prime minister's house is gone. There is flooding inside his house.

[Lakigigar]

Hours before Maria made landfall.

[crimsone]

From a 0125z RECCO message...

Quote

RADAR FIX EYE 15 DEG 18 MIN N 061 DEG 14 MIN W GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION CIRCULAR EYE DIAM 10 NM CLOSED.

 

[Fiona Robertson]

I'm rubbish at linking images, but on the satellite loop it looked as if Maria turned WSW just as she made landfall on Dominica. Just a little turn, but this was what Irma did and which resulted in her going further west.

[Lakigigar]

 

https://www.facebook.com/SupportRooseveltSkerrit/

[Despicable Weather]

Live Stream from The Weather Channel for next few hours

[knocker]

 

[knocker]

This morning's gfs

[Iceberg]

I think it will be a little while before we hear much from Dominica. It certainly won't be good. 

The eye wall looks like it will just miss Guadalupe thankfully. 

Edited September 19, 2017 by Iceberg

[Jo Farrow]

8 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

I think it will be a little while before we hear much from Dominica. It certainly won't be good. 

The eye wall looks like it will just miss Guadalupe thankfully. 

Bit of FB text from their PM 

 So far we have lost all what money can buy and replace. My greatest fear for the morning is that we will wake to news of serious physical injury and possible deaths as a result of likely landslides triggered by persistent rains.

So, far the winds have swept away the roofs of almost every person I have spoken to or otherwise made contact with. The roof to my own official residence was among the first to go and this apparently triggered an avalanche of torn away roofs in the city and the countryside.

Come tomorrow morning we will hit the road, as soon as the all clear is given, in search of the injured and those trapped in the rubble.

I am honestly not preoccupied with physical damage at this time, because it is devastating...indeed, mind boggling. My focus now is in rescuing the trapped and securing medical assistance for the injured.

We will need help, my friend, we will need help of all kinds. Roosevelt Skerrit