Hurricane Maria

[Iceberg]

Current eye and the island of Dominica. Along with dual on vortices in the wall 

[Had Worse]

Doesnt matter if its it 4 or 5, it will be very damaging.

[Summer Sun]

Confirmed as Cat 4 now

[Iceberg]

Nhc have updated and it's not

good. A solid cat 4 as expected with the caveat that she could be stronger. 

Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye.  The last reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from
Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and
this featured has recently become better defined in visible and
infrared satellite imagery.  The aircraft data supported an
intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that
rapid intensification is continuing.  Thus, the initial intensity
is increased to 115 kt.  Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly
possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.

[Cog]

25 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Recent tweet from Ryan Maue indicates the rapid intensification Maria is going through:

 

Hour later -- even more intense as #HurricaneMaria is putting on an impressive show for GOES-16 satellite. Nearly Category 5 appearance. https://t.co/Ql5VWGfqqX

And if it sticks to the forecast path and passes straight west over the islands, there are some very hot waters for it to cross.

It looks a bad place to be really. If it tracks North along the Leeward islands, that's terrible news for the people already hit by Irma. But if it stays further west, as far as I understand there's very little chance of it weakening before it gets to Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic.

(Image source : http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/ )

[Had Worse]

I have seen a chart showing it hitting the SE coast of Puerto Rico. They had a North coast swipe from Irma but this could go right across the island.

[Ice Day]

After how the last few weeks have gone,  it would be somewhat of a surprise if Maria doesn't reach Cat 5 status over the next 24 hours. The only slight positive is that the storm is relatively small when compared to Irma. However, that won't be of any help in a direct hit. Really feel for those in the firing line. Scary stuff.

[Iceberg]

Here's a picture from the latest Dvorak. It has been variable but currently stands at t6.9 which is cat 5. Of more amazement at least to me is the 70+c temp diff from the eye to the cloud tops that's over 70c difference over a few miles. I could be wrong but not even Irma had this much potential energy. 

Incredible !

[Jo Farrow]

http://www.forces.net/news/tri-service/uk-troops-caribbean-prepare-another-major-hurricane 

 

[Fiona Robertson]

Does anyone have any idea about previous fast intensifications that we can compare with Maria?

[Had Worse]

http://www.madinina.webcam/webcam-martinique-sainte-anne-habitation-bellevue/

Not the best cam but it gives an idea of the deteriorating conditions.

 

http://www.madinina.webcam/

Edited September 18, 2017 by Had Worse

[FetchCB]

18 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

I am glad it's not just me saying this. Maria does look classic cat 5. There is no way on the planet that nhc will go with that as recon will be needed and a solid cat 4 would be safe and the right call. Recon is still hours away which is a right pain. 

I still think that Dominica will take the eye wall unfortunately it could mean Massive Irma style damage. 

It could depend on what other info in terms of observations  they have from the French Authorities that may support a Cat 5? NNot sure tho whether a Cat 5 declaration as opposed to Cat 4 will have on disaster response from the French 

Politically within the US it may stir the global warming discussion again 

 

[Had Worse]

http://www.madinina.webcam/webcam-martinique-anse-a-l-ane/

Those waves are pounding the coast already

[Iceberg]

Now over 80c temp difference and t7.1 which is around 165mph sustained. 

[Had Worse]

Its bombing big time. They hinted that it might and its gorged on the good conditions.

[Iceberg]

8 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

It could depend on what other info in terms of observations  they have from the French Authorities that may support a Cat 5? NNot sure tho whether a Cat 5 declaration as opposed to Cat 4 will have on disaster response from the French 

Politically within the US it may stir the global warming discussion again 

 

I agree any declaration will be meaningless the core is only a few hrs from Dominica. For the damage though the winds they look likely to suffer with cause a different magnitude of damage than even a low end cat 4. At least for those in the 2-5 mile band from the ne wall. 

[Had Worse]

 

 

Live cam on Guadeloupe but for how long

https://www.ipcamlive.com/59ba94e3c7b01

Edited September 18, 2017 by Had Worse

[knocker]

[FetchCB]

I wonder if next year we will see a different type of warning... Currently a hurricane warning means to expect hurricane winds within 48 hrs?

With the rapid intensification that we now see first with Irma and now especially with Maria It seems that a new warning is needed to warn of the potential of rapid intensification. It's one thing to be warned of a Cat 2 or at a stretch 3 but when that warning means facing a strong cat 5 you need evacuation 

[knocker]

 

 

[FetchCB]

Looking at the latest radar... Is that the start of an eyewall replacement cycle (erc)?  

If so then it may spare Dominica the worst scenario 

[Had Worse]

https://www.ipcamlive.com/59ba94e3c7b01

The waves in the bottom right are huge and the trees are really rocking.

This cam is looking South towards Dominica

[summer blizzard]

58 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

I have seen a chart showing it hitting the SE coast of Puerto Rico. They had a North coast swipe from Irma but this could go right across the island.

It looks likely to be a direct hit. As it stands, San Juan will likely take the north east quad.

54 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Here's a picture from the latest Dvorak. It has been variable but currently stands at t6.9 which is cat 5. Of more amazement at least to me is the 70+c temp diff from the eye to the cloud tops that's over 70c difference over a few miles. I could be wrong but not even Irma had this much potential energy. 

Incredible !

Although there are warmer waters around apparently this whole area has the 27C isotherm extending something like 300m deep meaning that you don't get upwelling to any serious degree. 

5 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Looking at the latest radar... Is that the start of an eyewall replacement cycle (erc)?  

If so then it may spare Dominica the worst scenario 

The secondary eyewall is nowhere near developed and won't affect Maria until tomorrow. 

Dominica will take the core in about 90 minutes and i strongly suspect that recon will declare Maria a category 5 before that. 

The damage Maria will cause, will be catastrophic.

[Vahnstad]

This could as well become one of the strongest storms in the Atlantic Basin.

[Iceberg]

Recon have just done their first pass. 

Pressure 926mb

highest surface winds 150kts rain affected. 139kts clear. 

That should be enough for a cat 5

hurricane just !

Edited September 18, 2017 by Iceberg