Hurricane Maria

[FetchCB]

facebook live streaming from MArtinique

https://www.facebook.com/livemap/?ref=trending#@14.76691505925414,-60.97412109375,8z

[Iceberg]

Maria has been nudging westward and the Models have been moving westwards so no surprise to see this as a cat 5 from the gfs. 

[Iceberg]

Maria is a boarderline cat 4 now going from this the eye is

clearig out and some extreme towers forming in the ne wall. 

No recon though

[Cog]

Another image of the eye forming.

 

[Iceberg]

Yep forming rapidly now pressure must be getting close to 950mb. 

[Iceberg]

Sorry for yet another close up of the eye but the clearing of the eye is a major development in the maturity of a hurricane. 

The temp difference between inner eye and eye wall and the lack of convection in the eye are all major indicators that the hurricane is entering a more mature and stronger stage of development. 

The eye on Maria is tiny only 8 miles across compared to irmas 20 miles so will be less evident. 

The greens are just starting to show which indicate the eye has essentially cleared now. 

[Daniel*]

 

[Iceberg]

I was going to mention t numbers but they have been all over the place. Raw t is 6.5 which is high end cat 4 t7.0 is cat 5. 

Raw dvorak t numbers are highly dependent on the eye temp diff. It was previously -65 to -75. Now the eye is clearing it's -25 to -75   

The bigger the temp diff the higher the raw t. 

 

[Iceberg]

Looking at radar the northern eye wall will pass over the middle of Dominique. 

[Jo Farrow]

Meteo France have upped the warning for Martinique to Violet, from Red

Vigilance violette 
Phénomènes dangereux

Phénomènes dangereux d'intensité exceptionnelle sur les Antilles  

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane 

[BurntFishTrousers]

On 17/09/2017 at 16:23, Iceberg said:

Maria is suffering. Suffering a lot ATM. 

Nhc have just updated and said little change on 6 hrs ago, with some dry air on the western side. 

I disagree with this a lot tbh. Dvorak numbers have dropped from 3.8 to 3.1. Visual shows the western side is totally exposed and she seems to be suffering from shear as well. It could be a lack of vertical stacking earlier. 

I've seen many a system die from this scenario with a complete llcc cdo decoupling. 

I am not saying that this is Maria's fate but it's a possibility. 

Equally the cdo might recentre and she turn into a hurricane. 

Nhc say a hurricane is likely later today, but not from what I am seeing. 

Just catching up on this, and your posts in particular. 24 hours ago you basically said no hurricane likely. Now later posts you say not surprised Cat 5 is being mentioned.. 

I'd be tempted to go with NHC discussions and not some kind of cloud nowcasting giving out wrong info which is what your above post was. Seriously, I took it that Maria was going to be fish spinner from your earlier post..now it's borderline cat 4/5 soon. Careful not to provide incorrect info.

[Iceberg]

4 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Just catching up on this, and your posts in particular. 24 hours ago you basically said no hurricane likely. Now later posts you say not surprised Cat 5 is being mentioned.. 

I'd be tempted to go with NHC discussions and not some kind of cloud nowcasting giving out wrong info which is what your above post was. Seriously, I took it that Maria was going to be fish spinner from your earlier post..now it's borderline cat 4/5 soon. Careful not to provide incorrect info.

Um. I was talking about yesterday and clearly said equally she could be a hurricane. I'll let others decide. I comment on what she's currently doing backing that up with images. As for fish spinner I've never said or hinted at that in any post. 

Lets get back to Maria she's more than dangerous enough !

[Jo Farrow]

3 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Um. I was talking about yesterday and clearly said equally she could be a hurricane. I'll let others decide. I comment on what she's currently doing backing that up with images. As for fish spinner I've never said or hinted at that in any post. 

Lets get back to Maria she's more than dangerous enough !

What a few weeks for the Caribbean. Horrific for these islands so quickly after Irma. Currently up to advisory 9A http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?cone#contents 

[MattTarrant]

8 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Just catching up on this, and your posts in particular. 24 hours ago you basically said no hurricane likely. Now later posts you say not surprised Cat 5 is being mentioned.. 

I'd be tempted to go with NHC discussions and not some kind of cloud nowcasting giving out wrong info which is what your above post was. Seriously, I took it that Maria was going to be fish spinner from your earlier post..now it's borderline cat 4/5 soon. Careful not to provide incorrect info.

I think its needless to have a go at someone for putting there opinion across. Iceberg has been probably the most useful member for this season's hurricane season, especially during Irma's period. His opinion, is only an OPINION. No ones opinion on this forum should be taken as gospel, to form a judgement on what's going on use many updates. Perhaps also learn to read satellite imagery!

[cowdog]

12z ECM is showing an interesting scenario. Has Maria going barreling off to Jose, where they would do the fujiwara dance on the US North East coast, with both being Hurricane force. Won't happen but the fact that its such a significant possibility the main ECM run is showing it is interesting.

Edited September 18, 2017 by cowdog

[Ice Day]

17 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Just catching up on this, and your posts in particular. 24 hours ago you basically said no hurricane likely. Now later posts you say not surprised Cat 5 is being mentioned.. 

I'd be tempted to go with NHC discussions and not some kind of cloud nowcasting giving out wrong info which is what your above post was. Seriously, I took it that Maria was going to be fish spinner from your earlier post..now it's borderline cat 4/5 soon. Careful not to provide incorrect info.

I don't think Iceberg professes to be an expert, but this is a weather forum and he's entitled to give his opinion. I'm sure people in harms way will likely take info from NHC rather than sign into Netweather. 

Keep it up Iceberg, I'm enjoying your input.

[Iceberg]

It is really important that folks use the nhc discussions. The problem is that they only give them out every 6 hrs. 

Personally I would question everything said by everyone. Some will be right, some wrong. Nhc get it right maybe 95% of the time which I think is utterly amazing. I can't think of another branch of weather forecasting that comes close considering all the factors involved. 

T numbers have shifted to 6.3 and have been very variable. 

I think Martinique should largely get away with it as hurricane radius is pretty small. Dominique is a different story. 

[FetchCB]

1 hour ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Just catching up on this, and your posts in particular. 24 hours ago you basically said no hurricane likely. Now later posts you say not surprised Cat 5 is being mentioned.. 

I'd be tempted to go with NHC discussions and not some kind of cloud nowcasting giving out wrong info which is what your above post was. Seriously, I took it that Maria was going to be fish spinner from your earlier post..now it's borderline cat 4/5 soon. Careful not to provide incorrect info.

The cloud now casting you refer to is called the dvorak technique. It is used by the nhc and will quite often quote it in their discussions 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/H1.html

And yes dry air encroaching into a hurricane that is trying to rapidly intensify can have a very large impact on on the hurricane concerned. Moisture is  it's lifeblood. So not an unreasonable observation albeit one that did not come to fruition 

[SnowBear]

1 hour ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Just catching up on this, and your posts in particular. 24 hours ago you basically said no hurricane likely. Now later posts you say not surprised Cat 5 is being mentioned.. 

I'd be tempted to go with NHC discussions and not some kind of cloud nowcasting giving out wrong info which is what your above post was. Seriously, I took it that Maria was going to be fish spinner from your earlier post..now it's borderline cat 4/5 soon. Careful not to provide incorrect info.

Stick around on a hurricane/typhoon discussion thread for long enough, perhaps look into some of the factors that are involved in tracking and forecasting them and you will find that they can be the most finicky of weather systems. The slightest change even some distance away can alter their behaviour, and sometimes it is just a wait and see. Even the best get caught out and tbh, at times with hurricanes it is almost now casting. 

 

Edited September 18, 2017 by SnowBear

[Ice Day]

Recent tweet from Ryan Maue indicates the rapid intensification Maria is going through:

 

Hour later -- even more intense as #HurricaneMaria is putting on an impressive show for GOES-16 satellite. Nearly Category 5 appearance. https://t.co/Ql5VWGfqqX

[Had Worse]

Oh dear, looks like Maria is firewalling the throttle, not good for the already damaged islands.

[Ice Day]

Just now, Had Worse said:

Oh dear, looks like Maria is firewalling the throttle, not good for the already damaged islands.

Indeed.  Just seeing a few tweets from US meteorologists stating that the next NHC update will likely be upgrading Maria to a Cat 4. The speed these recent storms have intensified is really a worry for this year and maybe future ones!

[Had Worse]

 

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Mustique,+St+Vincent+and+the+Grenadines/@15.8152705,-61.4896206,11z/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x8c4767af4c3a6f27:0xf615678d3319f2d3

These islands are in for the eye wall treatment from what I'm seeing.

Edited September 18, 2017 by Had Worse

[Iceberg]

I am glad it's not just me saying this. Maria does look classic cat 5. There is no way on the planet that nhc will go with that as recon will be needed and a solid cat 4 would be safe and the right call. Recon is still hours away which is a right pain. 

I still think that Dominica will take the eye wall unfortunately it could mean Massive Irma style damage. 

[Love Snow]

Logged on this morning talk of a cat 2 possible cat 3. Logged on tonight talk of cat 5. Those poor people.