Hurricane Maria

[Had Worse]

Could be the start of the eye.

Seems to be a circular depression in the cloud tops circled red.

[Iceberg]

Maria is suffering. Suffering a lot ATM. 

Nhc have just updated and said little change on 6 hrs ago, with some dry air on the western side. 

I disagree with this a lot tbh. Dvorak numbers have dropped from 3.8 to 3.1. Visual shows the western side is totally exposed and she seems to be suffering from shear as well. It could be a lack of vertical stacking earlier. 

I've seen many a system die from this scenario with a complete llcc cdo decoupling. 

I am not saying that this is Maria's fate but it's a possibility. 

Equally the cdo might recentre and she turn into a hurricane. 

Nhc say a hurricane is likely later today, but not from what I am seeing. 

[Iceberg]

Small blob of deep and very cold towers springing out in the centre. 

Just in time for recon. 

[Iceberg]

Recon have just found 986mb pressure and surface of 64kts. Maybe enough to justify raising her to a cat 1. 

Imagine what they would have found 6 hrs ago ! Was probably a cat 2 back then...

[Had Worse]

NHC have her as a CAT 3 minimum in around 60 hours, maybe more.

 

Whats the recipe looking forward, low shear and warmer seas?

[Ice Day]

I didn't expect to be back on here again this year! Ryan Maue tweeted a couple of hours ago:

NHC mentioned, Maria is battling dry-air & hopefully has delayed/inhibited a rapid intensification episode prior to reaching Islands https://t.co/bUUpQ97CFa

[Jo Farrow]

Close up Radar for the French islands under threat from Maria http://www.meteofrance.gp/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours/anim_sat_cyclone 

[Iceberg]

Recon have pressure down to 982mb I am not fully convinced by the 64kts in the nw quad on the previous pass.  The ne has quite a few in the 55-60kt region. 

An usually storm. 

Still plenty of time and ability for ri. 

But the ingestion of dry air and affect of shear early shows how prone it is due to the small size of cdo. 

[snowsummer]

Cat 1. And looking likely to be cat.3 by tuesday. Worrying times for those already struggling after Irma.  

[Fiona Robertson]

She's now officially a cat 1 hurricane

[Jo Farrow]

33 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

She's now officially a cat 1 hurricane

St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat added to hurricane warning area with Guadeloupe and Dominica

[Kiwi]

Nightmare scenario for all of those so badly affected by Irma is that Maria will track along the northern most boundary of the forecast cone. This would threaten Antigua, Saint Martin , BVI etc. All those attempting to slowly piece their lives back together would be hit again.

Here is an extract from an email I received from friends in Tortola, BVI that gives some small insight into the struggle they're having .........without another hurricane making an appearance;

 

We have been challenged by the weather the last few days. With some serious rainfall culminating in 2 flash floods this week. More on that later.Staying here will be dependent upon us making the house water tight and getting power. We currently have a lead to our neighbours house for the fridge. They are putting their generator on a couple of times a day. Phones etc we are charging by solar.

Transport is a little tricky as our road is blocked, but we can get to a cleared road via the neighbours, and then get out that way

X was able to find some tarpaulin and secured the bedroom area so that just left half of the rest of the roof. It made a huge difference when it rained. But we have to keep pumping and mopping out. The water ingress in to the lower 2 rooms is manageable so we are not overly concerned about downstairs.

 So to weather. Since Irma, Jose passed us with wind but little else thankfully but since then we have had a fair bit of rain. The flash flood on Friday was atrocious. The rain was torrential and unfortunately the infrastructure cannot cope as all drains etc. are already broken or blocked. I was already in Road Town for comms and was to attend a staff meeting. But it became very unsafe to move around. The work meeting became impossible due to the rain. The waters rose so quickly. Having sheltered a colleague and driven up a hill to avoid the flooding. Once the rain subsided I headed home to help X mop out the house (again).

For those whose homes are blown wide open the rain must feel like hell again. It's been over a week and no sign of any distribution of tarps to the most in need.

[Despicable Weather]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Track of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HurricaneMarie?src=hash">#HurricaneMarie</a> eye expected to pass over or very near Puerto Rico as a strong Category 4 storm (120-knots) <a href="https://t.co/hLLTxyPQqV">pic.twitter.com/hLLTxyPQqV</a></p>&mdash; Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/909614939408683008">18 September 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Despicable Weather]

Tweet won't embed for some unknown reason but rapid strengthening expected to occur and develop into a Cat 4 as she tracks over Puerto Rico which is not good news for those islands.

[Iceberg]

Maria looks like a messy blob of convection ATM. 

However there are a few signs that she is still intensifying not ri but still strong and steady. 

Underneath the blob maria seems to be well organised. The eye is clearly seen with good banding approaching the islands. No recon for awhile so can't be sure yet. 

[Iceberg]

Recon should be in pretty soon radar looks like the centre has been struggling for the last few hrs. A dry slot def made life hard again in the western side.  It does look a little better recently though. 

Without the strong eye wall we won't see her clearing imo. 

But a strong eye wall could happen sooner rather than later. 

[FetchCB]

Timing all important for Leeward Islands.

NHC has Maria as major hurricane in 24 hrs. As soon as Maria gets its act together in the eyewall  I think they expect rapid intensification.

Those in the immediate path of Maria may be "spared" the worst of what Maria could become but it it does look bleak for those that were hard hit by Irma, but again ( as is almost always the case) a high pressure to the north will ultimately determine the path of Maria and when and how much it turns north west

[Fiona Robertson]

Looking at sea temps along route. If Maria swings a little further north than expected she's going to pass over waters cooler than annual mean for the region. However her current predicted track has her over warmer waters so that would indicate intensification. Question for everyone - at her current size, what effect will landfall in Puerto Rico have? I know that because Irma was so huge many of her landfalls had absolutely no effect.

[FetchCB]

12 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Looking at sea temps along route. If Maria swings a little further north than expected she's going to pass over waters cooler than annual mean for the region. However her current predicted track has her over warmer waters so that would indicate intensification. Question for everyone - at her current size, what effect will landfall in Puerto Rico have? I know that because Irma was so huge many of her landfalls had absolutely no effect.

I would imagine the mountains would have some effect

Hurricane Betsy in 1956 followed a similar path through Puerto Rico and was a Cat2 on entry and a Cat1 on leaving

 

 

Screen shot from https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

[FetchCB]

Last radar image shows an eyewall

 

 

 

[Iceberg]

18 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Last radar image shows an eyewall

 

 

 

Could well be the anticipated ri. Radar loop for the last 6 hrs has shown an eye that has strunk and been replaced by an eye approx 50% bigger the new eye is much more stable at this time with a stronger eye wall. I would suggest Maria has successfully undergone an ewrc.  

This is obviously very bad news for the islands as Maria could well gain major status from this. 

Recon are just passing in so will be Tasting the new eye. 

[Iceberg]

Wow recon just found pressure down to 966-967mb. With this bout of strengthening just starting sub 950 has to be likely. 

Recon only in the weakest se quad ATM. 

[Iceberg]

Surface winds of 102kts in the ne quad so will be officially a cat 3 major hurricane. 

[mountain shadow]

That is a very rapid intensification, could it reach Cat 4 or 5 by landfall?

[FetchCB]

14 mile eye open in southwest