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Hurricane Maria

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Well in the next 45 mins nhc will be creating Maria. 

I think it will need its own thread quickly given its path, strength and affects. 

It looks similar to Irma in many ways. 

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Dvorak has increased dramatically in the last hr. Already raw t numbers support 50kts. 

The first big question for nhc. Will they go with the initial 40kts or the newly classified 50kts?

gfs paths. 

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Given those frams above, thats also how Irma was projected to travel and over a week later, she cut her own path much further West.

I suppose it depends on the placement of the Bermuda high and any trough dragging it Northwards.

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Nhc have updated Maria is given a 45kt strength which seems fair. 

Also a slight path update and confirmation that they expect her to develop into another Major hurricane. 

Tracks is still highly uncertain at the moment. the models haven't yet fixed Ina single path. Ec in particular is all over the place. 

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Well what a season this is turning into!

I'm sure whilst they are all out at sea, doing what they do, it is all about marvelling at them and the power they have.

I suppose it hopeless to think none of them will trouble folk over their lifetimes?

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Oh NO, yet again. This one seems to be forming so quickly that a lot of people in the Caribbean will be unaware. 

I thought this was going to stay south (St Lucia, Grenada, Dominica) but the track now is more towards the Northern Leewards, where it is least welcome. Forecast to be Tropical Storm tomorrow and then a Hurricane Tues AM around Antigua. We can cope with a CAT 1 or 2 but really dont want to see a major hurricane again. 

With a ridge developing across the US mid week I can see this system being steered into US mainland and no out to sea. 

What is unclear with this Hurricane develop into a CAT 3 or above ?

 

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40 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Oh NO, yet again. This one seems to be forming so quickly that a lot of people in the Caribbean will be unaware. 

I thought this was going to stay south (St Lucia, Grenada, Dominica) but the track now is more towards the Northern Leewards, where it is least welcome. Forecast to be Tropical Storm tomorrow and then a Hurricane Tues AM around Antigua. We can cope with a CAT 1 or 2 but really dont want to see a major hurricane again. 

With a ridge developing across the US mid week I can see this system being steered into US mainland and no out to sea. 

What is unclear with this Hurricane develop into a CAT 3 or above ?

 

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While tentative this is looking likely. 

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Well I don't like the look of this one bit; with very favourable conditions for development likely over the next 4-5 days, all Maria had to do was sort out a good structure and based on the past few hours of satellite imaginary that's just what has happened. The 'wrapping-up comma' shape is a bad omen.

Given model limitations and what happened with Irma I'd not be surprised to wake up to a hurricane tomorrow that then steadily marches toward major status over the following day or two.

The best possibility for this not to occur is if the low level centre is now as well aligned with the mid-level as would be expected in the current low-shear environment. Back in the seasons 2013-15 this was almost a given (oddly so) but this year is playing by very sifferent rules so I'd go as far as to call it a minor miracle if it turns out to be the case.

Worst part of all this is, even a low-end hurricane will be a lot of trouble if it tracks across the northern Leewards and co.

Small chance based on typical modelling errors of a track further south and then on to the NW Caribbean... but then the likes of Florida come under threat which is also very troubling.

There's been too many of these 'ominous evenings' this season... and we're only halfway through the climatological duration!

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Maria is till creating her cdo. Her inflow and outflow is, if anything to efficient for such as new system therefore making it a little more difficult to get established, however it will mean that she goes bang. 

Track is 99% certain to be through the islands starting probably south of Barbuda and then maybe a PR hit then a dr hit. 

Beyond that Jose plays a big part, Jose could create a weakness that pulls her towards the mid Atlantic if that happens then both systems will direct their energy to us in 2 weeks time. If not then a ridge moves in forcing Maria into the east coast. 

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Edited by Iceberg

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Ecm trotting out and has this at t144 Jose near the us east coast. Maria in the islands and lee looking like it might it dragged toward us in the mid Atlantic above the Azores pressure cell. 

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1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

Ec shows the us wet coast hit scenario. 

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East Coast ?

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Nhc have updated 55kts. They forecast her to become a hurricane today and have a key message of a major hurricane affecting the bvi later. Also they mention that she could under go rapid intensification at any time and therefore blow their strength forecast. 

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Recon are due in about 8 hrs. 

Dvorak is upto 3.9 raw. T4.0 equals hurricane strength i.e. 65kts

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vis-animated.gif

That looks to be exploding, could be a visible eye shortly.

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18 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

vis-animated.gif

That looks to be exploding, could be a visible eye shortly.

Maybe there already is, the last frame certaibly has a circular gap.

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It might be a little early for any visible eye. Dvorak has dropped a touch. However clearly some very high cold towers forming around the centre and the core becomes better formed. Dvorak imagery shows what could be a potential eye wall being formed. 

I do think by the time recon enter an organised eye might be in the cards. 

Def still intensifying at a good rate of knots. 

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Latest gfs still has the Jose induced weakness and so keeps Maria out to sea as a cat 5 pressure 909mb. 

I am still not sold on that solution. 

Still plenty of unfortunate hits for the islands prior to that. 

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I've just noticed that the GIF I posted above is auto updating. Theres a comma in the centre and daylight has come since.

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Def a eye wall showing in dvorak image. 

I think Irma was a cat 3 before the eye cleared. Recon might be very interesting when it comes in 

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Looks like Barbados could see some outer bands shortly.

Islands further Norh must be dreading this as all the debris thats scattered will become airborne and thats alot of projectiles.

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