Hurricane Jose

[jvenge]

Interesting. UKMO model shows the hurricane going into Florida, but moving over and not up. ECM has it heading out to sea and not getting close to the US. GFS has it flirting with the US east coast before moving out to sea.

Can't get much more different evolutions than that. 

Edited September 11, 2017 by jvenge

[Polar Bear]

 I see there is a 30% chance of a cyclone formation out near West Africa ...." A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavourable for tropical cyclone formation.  This system is expected to move west-northwestward for the next two days and then turn northward over the central Atlantic"

Thought there would at least be a few more days break away from the forums after Irma... but with Jose and this one guess not..

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Will be anyone's guess as its set to become a proper 'floating hurricane' if you like over the next few days. 

Another interesting watch is over the other side into the eastern Pacific, where for a couple of days now, GFS has shown runs with a tropical storm/hurricane trundling up the gulf of California between the Baja peninsula and Mexico. It would be one for the history books if a hurricane made it all the way up into California! 

Edited September 11, 2017 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Iceberg]

Gfs is very troublesome with Jose. For a few runs parks the system on the east coast and moves it inland. 

Rainfall and flooding would again be a major problem. It does have it as a cat 4 as well so winds would need tk be watch. 

Ec on the other is determined to keep it at sea, but is trending closer and closer to the us coast. 

[knocker]

Shifting a bit westward

[crimsone]

Truthfully, we just won't know until it gets towards the end of that anticyclonic loop. Too many variables, miscalculation in any of which could significantly change the forecast.

Edited September 12, 2017 by crimsone

[summer blizzard]

Looks like a fish or Nova Scotia hit however the UKMO and its ensembles are still adamant of the Florida hit.

[chillyblast]

I'm going for fish hit, although not sure if the remnants of Irma will have any influence on this path.

[pip22]

The latest GFS going for Jose to become a Extra-tropical cyclone to slam into UK, next weekend. This is prob not gonna happen. Its just a guess from GFS.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53.2;-21.0;4&l=wind&t=20170922/00

Storm 'Jose' could be our next storm if the GFS verifies this.

 

 

Edited September 12, 2017 by pip22

[karyo]

The UKMO has abandoned the idea of Jose going over Florida and now keeps him out in the Atlantic although not far from the east US coast. The GFS places him right on the coastline and the ECM in the Atlantic but doesn't know what to do with him as in the last couple of frames he is moving westwards again.

[The PIT]

Looks like Jose will stop going in circles and restrengthen a little heading away north west before turning north then north west. A long lived fish spinner this one.

[Cog]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Looks like Jose will stop going in circles and restrengthen a little heading away north west before turning north then north west. A long lived fish spinner this one.

Over the past couple of days, the models have been shifting farther and farther to the west. It looks like New York might be in line for a bit of a soaking at least.

(Source on image: http://www.wjhg.com/templates/2015_Fullscreen_Radar#  Although I'm not sure what specific models those tracks represent.)

 

[bluearmy]

Jose predicted to make another loop the loop further north - can't recall too many hurricanes doing this those some of you will no doubt! 

[crimsone]

There certainly haven't been many hurricanes that have achieved a second anti-cyclonic loop. They don't usually last long enough at that latitude, for a start.