Hurricane Jose

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Love Snow said:

Crazy looks like another cat 5 on the cards.

I agree LS - it's getting more 'crazy' by the day.

[crimsone]

"Fish spinner extraordinaire?" 

Beginning to doubt the initial assessment. Most models have it ~just~ missing the northern leeward islands. Wouldn't take a lot for a worst-case scenario to occur in Barbuda.

[AderynCoch]

18 hours ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Is it possible with the outflow from Irma containing plenty of moisture, that she is 'feeding' Jose?

No, if anything the outflow from a hurricane will create higher shear in its wake. Hurricanes also upwell deeper, cooler water from the ocean leaving behind lower SSTs for a time. The problem here is that Jose has been moving just south enough of Irma's track to avoid these less favourable conditions.

Barbuda, St. Barts, St. Martin and Anguilla - still reeling from Irma - are all under a hurricane watch again. Let's hope they are luckier this time.

Edited September 8, 2017 by AderynCoch

[Polar Bear]

Think we best change this three to Hurricane Jose?,....

[Chris.R]

 Someone please change the thread title. It's tropical storm days are long over. 

[crimsone]

My fault. Thought I could change the title once it got upgraded. Apparently I can't edit it now. Apologies.

[Polar Bear]

9 minutes ago, crimsone said:

My fault. Thought I could change the title once it got upgraded. Apparently I can't edit it now. Apologies.

No worries- One of the NW admin could-  maybe ask them? Or do we need a new thread? 

[Singularity]

Well this one really is an over-performer... in fact I can't quite believe my eyes here; this 'whippy' effect to the CDO on infra-red has in my experience been associated with peak sustained winds exceeding 180 mph but I wonder if in this case the CDO as a whole just happens to be spinning pretty fast relative to the eye. Either that or Jose is Irma-slim .

[Man With Beard]

Some real fake news circulating though - Jose is still forecast to go far north of most islands affected by Irma

[crimsone]

2 hours ago, Polar Bear said:

No worries- One of the NW admin could-  maybe ask them? Or do we need a new thread? 

Absolutely no point in a new thread. The important part of the title is the name, not the status. Gets to be a mess if you can't keep all the discussion about one storm in one place.

[crimsone]

Barbuda may have dodged the bullet here....

[Nick L]

Title edited. 

[pip22]

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=33.0;-76.3;4&l=gust&t=20170919/00

Jose may be on to something. According to this site she could hit New York.  Around 20th Sept?

[Gray-Wolf]

Yes the eastern Seaboard appears favourite right now?

I think he's after trump towers after Irma took out trumps caribbean island retreat and now just about to wreck mar a lago for him?

Did he do something to upset the gods???

[The PIT]

Jose is going to do an anticyclonic loop and there's much uncertainty about it's later track.  Perhaps this will end up being the third hurricane to hit the mainland.

[Mark wheeler]

23 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Jose is going to do an anticyclonic loop and there's much uncertainty about it's later track.  Perhaps this will end up being the third hurricane to hit the mainland.

Just seen the Beeb forecast and Louise Leah said it could quite possibly stay out at sea for a few days strengthen and drift west towards Florida etc . She also highlighted significant uncertainty.

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Just seen the Beeb forecast and Louise Leah said it could quite possibly stay out at sea for a few days strengthen and drift west towards Florida etc . She also highlighted significant uncertainty.

Woah i hope it doesn't do that.

[knocker]

[alexisj9]

38 minutes ago, knocker said:

That's a mess.

[Mark wheeler]

43 minutes ago, knocker said:

Thanks for posting knocker , much uncertainty there , it looks like someone got the old Spirograph out.

[Singularity]

Well I'll be the first to say - OUCH Jose, that looked like it hurt! 

Interesting to see the eyewall evidently refusing to back down; that's an impressive wrap-around of very cold cloud-tops over the past hour. Trying to use the extra ventilation to it's benefit and this I imagine is why the models expect Jose to remain a hurricane while waiting for conditions to improve again - quite possibly while undertaking a large anticyclonic (i.e. clockwise) loop as a ridge passes to the north in between two deep troughs and then the western trough interacts with the remnants of Irma to produce a 'weakness' toward which Jose is likely to venture - in this way placing the East U.S. coast at risk of impacts.

Just a possibility, but one the models are surprisingly keen to explore given the complexity of the sequence required to get there.

[JeffC]

I love the way we all end up talking as if these things actually have volition, not sure if we tend to anthropomorphise them because they're named?

 

 

[Mark wheeler]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/10/hurricane-jose-to-meander-not-far-from-u-s-east-coast-for-days-in-threatening-position/

[stodge]

The latest NHC guidance suggests after its loop in the Atlantic, Jose will strengthen and move WNW. It doesn't look as though the areas hit by Irma would be hit again but other parts of the Eastern Seaboard would be under threat. It's certainly one to watch for the weekend and early next week.

[Polar Bear]

According to the guardian " Hurricane Jose, which had threatened to batter the Caribbean islands hit by Irma, has weakened to a category 2 storm is set to linger away from land in the coming days. According to the latest update from the US National Hurricane Centre Jose now has sustained wind speeds of 105mph..."

I haven't looked at the NHC site for a while  -  I didn't realise it had downgraded to a Cat 2..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/10/hurricane-irma-millions-brace-for-impact-as-superstorm-reaches-florida-live