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So, Jose just formed hot on the tail of Irma. This was predicted by a bunch of models, many of which have seen it recurve back into the atlantic.

000
WTNT22 KNHC 051454
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE FUTURE PROGRESS
OF JOSE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  39.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  39.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  38.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.8N  40.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.4N  43.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.9N  46.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.4N  49.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.0N  55.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 18.5N  59.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N  62.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N  39.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Edited by Nick L

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From the first NHC discussion... (they reckon 90kt by day 5)

 

With no history on the center location, the motion is estimated to
be west-northwest at 11 kt.  Jose should move toward the west or
west-northwest for the next three to four days at a slightly faster
rate of forward speed as it moves south of the deep-layer
Azores-Bermuda high.  In about four to five days, Jose should turn
toward the northwest and slow as it reaches the southwestern
periphery of the high.  The model guidance is in good agreement
with this scenario and the official forecast is based upon a blend
of the ECMWF-GFS-UKMET deterministic and ensemble model output.

The environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite
conducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are
very warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant
mid-level moisture.  By days four and five, however, the vertical
shear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to
its west.

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58 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Bugger. They really don't need this too.

Screen Shot 2017-09-06 at 13.13.32.png

Your quite right  puts our little wind storm earlier this year into some kind of perspective.

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Crikey, that's 2 hurricanes already, and, possibly, a 3rd on the way...From my, not very great, understanding of chaos theory (pendulums and magnets) the models will have a nightmare forecasting the paths and velocities of all three simultaneously?:shok:

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Topic needs an edit for hurricane status. Alas, I don't have those rights.

11 named storms though. Wow.

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As of this morning ...Jose is a little stronger

000
WTNT32 KNHC 070855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...JOSE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 49.1W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/070855.shtml

 

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I didn't expect that much intensification as it's more or less following irma for now. didn't realise she left so much energy.

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Is it possible with the outflow from Irma containing plenty of moisture, that she is 'feeding' Jose?

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Probably. I fear hurricane Jose may follow Irma's path. Hopefully Jose will be shifted into the Ocean.

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With some models earlier doing a 180 on track I suddenly wondered if we might see Jose here in just over a week? That would be an interesting 'happening' I think!!!

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31 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

With some models earlier doing a 180 on track I suddenly wondered if we might see Jose here in just over a week? That would be an interesting 'happening' I think!!!

I was thinking the same GW - when is one of these hurricanes going to get picked up by the Jet Stream and sent over in our direction? Obviously will turn into an "ex hurricane" by the time it reaches us.

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36 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I was thinking the same GW - when is one of these hurricanes going to get picked up by the Jet Stream and sent over in our direction? Obviously will turn into an "ex hurricane" by the time it reaches us.

We had a few 'recurves back in 05' ( I think) that formed as Cape Verde's but then struck out north with a least 1 entering the med? I think the basin was so messed up at that point that it kind of opened the door to such a track? Maybe the storm after Jose ( out of Africa next week?) might also look to do a rapid recurve if Irma/Jose have set up some disturbances??

EDIT just had a peep at some runs and next week could see 3 'canes in close proximity so a triple Fujiwhara effect:)

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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pressure of 944mb just reported in Jose (well.... 11:53z)

Edited by crimsone

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Jose's track looks interesting.. 

Right now Irma is showing it a clear weakness to follow while at the same time ensuring there is abundant moisture ahead however once Irma decays Jose essentially becomes stuck because it's lost it's weakness in front but the trough to the north is long gone. The 6z basically just had it stall for days before finally being picked up. 

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Just now, Summer Sun said:

Hurricane Jose is now Cat 4

Sustained Winds 150 mph
Pressure: 942 mb

Wow, almost cat 5. 

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