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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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Ecm 12z...

196

 

Gfs 12z 196...

If anything northern hemisphericaly...ec is sharper....

Wants to cut through the pole more' sharply...with -almost cross pole evolution

And had decent alignment for a more favourable evolution!!...perhaps further down the track.

ECH1-192.gif

gfsnh-0-192.png

Edited by tight isobar

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Comparing current nwp with the old nwp should prove fruitless to some degree as all models have had several upgrades over the last few years. 

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A distinctly cool FI being shown at the moment, certainly worth keeping half an eye on as we head though the month. 

 

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like a strong PV building over Greenland on that run..

What should happen is further low heights forced into Europe and amplification in the Atlantic behind. We should see positive heights build back toward Greenland mid Nov onwards.

Would prefer the pattern further West but this is just one run. Just looking pinning down the basic synoptic pattern for now.

 

ECM a bit of a dogs dinner by day 10 but I'm sure would all take such a blocked mid Nov and take our chances from there.

ECH1-240.GIF?06-0

Edited by Mucka

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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like a strong PV building over Greenland on that run..

Looks pretty smashed up to me just another variation of the many variations we will see over the coming days:)

ECH1-240.gif

Edited by booferking

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Strong high pressure on the pole and reinforcement coming from Europe

ECH1-240_qdu8.GIF

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If we arrived at mid month with that ecm set up then we would really be testing the theory that if it can go wrong it will go wrong for nw Europe by the time we arrive at December. 

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1 minute ago, Jonan92 said:

Strong high pressure on the pole and reinforcement coming from Europe

ECH1-240_qdu8.GIF

Also hints of back building heights' that if ec-past 240..would flag up a push into n/w canada...eventualy into greenland area...

A further possible scenario for further block outcomes!!!???

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Im very happy with ec12z- looks dry and cold for quite a part of the run and certainly as BA alluded too, looks primed for a scandy high second half of the month.

Im particularly paying attention to the suggestion of LP across southern mainland Europe- this is an absolute must for UK cold.

Be nice to hear from Stewart Tamara and ste murr ..

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With the amplification getting underway on Friday the ecm has the frontal wave dipping south east west of Cornwall as the surface wind begins to veer NW then northerly as the large cold trough to the north east sinks south through central Europe into N. Africa, Thus briefly some wintry showers with snow on the high ground in Scotland overnight Saturday/Sunday before the Azores once again ridges NE.

It quickly comes under pressure from east bound energy from the west but wait. On this occasion it's more resilient and as it is pushed east more amplification occurs and with this orientation, with the trough to the west, some WAA in the southerly drift. :shok:

I think it is safe to say none of this detail towards the end of the run is liable to be around for long.

ecm_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.0cbb476574aed412948e2acd860fb903.pngecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.5338f622bcb45e64c8765b47b7d191c4.png

 

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The eps and GEFS mean height  anomoly at day 15 almost identical on a hemispheric level - can't say I recall that happening too often. 

The two vortex centres just ne of Alaska and far ne of Siberia. - very strange charts, if only in their agreement! ..

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The eps and GEFS mean height  anomoly at day 15 almost identical on a hemispheric level - can't say I recall that happening too often. 

The two vortex centres just ne of Alaska and far ne of Siberia. - very strange charts, if only in their agreement! ..

Its also very unusual to have a mean Northerly at 384 like the GEFS has currently.

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps and GEFS mean height  anomoly at day 15 almost identical on a hemispheric level - can't say I recall that happening too often. 

The two vortex centres just ne of Alaska and far ne of Siberia. - very strange charts, if only in their agreement! ..

I saw mentioned about lack of stratopsheric tropospheric coupling in near future, suppose if these charts can happen, that would mean upper vortex not filtering down?

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its also very unusual to have a mean Northerly at 384 like the GEFS has currently.

Yes,was going to post it earlier but got sidetracked and here it is,you usually see this type of chart upto 240hrs not 384:D

gensnh-21-1-384.thumb.png.60677e788718dc03b00ec0936d716cc8.png

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Just now, oasis said:

I saw mentioned about lack of stratopsheric tropospheric coupling in near future, suppose if these charts can happen, that would mean upper vortex not filtering down?

by the looks of things the strong northern blocking being shown by the models in the mid to long range is completely trop led, with a total disconnect between trop and strat. 

I have always been of the belief that such blocking would have to be coupled to the strat at least up to 30mb level or higher so I for one am very surprised to see such blocking in the charts. Mind you it has not verified yet

 

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I suspect we will see more November Trop V Strat disconnects with a very poor thermal gradient across the pole & Mid lat then it will take longer for the higher level strat to force its way down & work in tandem-

Late Nov early dec could be a new feedback loop I referred to the other day in terms of the result of a warm pole not cooling anywhere as fast as normal due to lack of ice coverage - But the continents & additional snow cover cooling faster creating an imbalance in the gradients promoting blocking in unorthodox places-

Edited by Steve Murr

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deleted

 

Edited by knocker

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Latest GEFS and EPS AO that I've seen. To repeat these are just forecast pressure distributions

eps_ao_00.thumb.png.37d767be6a5dd87a6c50c14277e79427.pnggefs_ao_06.thumb.png.b24eb444a075177bc321a7ddca4ccdc9.png

 

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I know some members have already said this but it needs to be stressed, with models looking promising at the moment, there's still a lot of time before it gets here, so everyone should defiantly NOT get their hopes up just yet, like recent winters things can change dramatically and leave us hanging and make us walk all the way back down the garden path.

We need to learn from these past winters and not get our hopes up until its all in the reliable time frame, because as we have seen on this thread things can get quite heated and become quite unfriendly at times when things don't go the way we want.

So again lets learn from past winters and not get our hopes up until its in the reliable, to keep this thread especially, friendly as it should be.

Just some friendly advise before the main events and season comes. Sorry mods if this isn't about the models exactly but I think it needs to be said in here.

 

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Some great weather charts for coldies, , Question is are we going to see the coldest winter since 2010?   The models show that's the gfs and ecm lots of blocking and the AO is in a very positive phase smashing the Polar Vortex , perhaps a very cold start to Winter.....:cold::cold::cold:

240.png

240x.png

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Perhaps a closer look at the anomalies this evening is warranted.

not bad agreement in the 5-10 range. Upstream we still have the north Pacific ridge connecting to a high cell Franz Joseph Land and east European ridge and the main vortex over N. canada with associated positively tilted trough across NW North America,

Downstream troughs also associated with the vortex  aligned south east into the Atlantic and west to the trough running a long way south into N. Africa east of the UK

Thus a strong westerly upper flow out of North America and across the western Atlantic which veers NW to the west of the UK under the dual influence of the Azores ridging north and the trough to the south east.

So remaining unsettled with the usual caveat vis wintry outbreaks and temps a little below normal.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.c14c46fe4a33891ea6bab4409df1023e.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.1c02a341b9a3f55a9d781c2cf84290c1.png610day_03.thumb.gif.d41c118d8f86efc72119d62a584447d8.gif

Not bad agreement with this analysis in the lower Strat.

2017110612_f192_200.nonenonehghtnonenone_nhem.gfs003.thumb.gif.7f0a49595946c4d8b7e75db8a422c567.gif2017110612_f192_100.nonenonehghtnonenone_nhem.gfs003.thumb.gif.90bf951639109ec9972bb84480cbb7c6.gif

In the ext period the pattern does change, The N. Pacific ridge extends further into the Artic and the vortex and associated troughs retrogress a little which initiates a pressure rise in mid Atlantic and over Greenland . Depending on how much this amplifies will dictate the weather over the UK as the trough realigns but this awaits a later date. It has to be said NOAA is not on board with the GEFS and EPS which may be down to the longer time frame

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png814day_03.thumb.gif.870437b1d7d58c0872495b6664d3a92b.gif

 

Edited by knocker

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Sticking to the reliable, its very much a repeat performance of last week for the coming week. No two days alike, trough orientated on a NW-SE trajectory, polar maritime air dominating in the main, only very brief tropical maritime airmasses - blink and miss it affairs. So some rain tomorrow, drier and cool on Wed, more rain Thursday and into Friday, once again becoming chilly over the weekend with another northerly plunge forecast.

The models are showing significant height rises to develop over N Russia by next week, and with a floundering PV, there could be a marked change to something more notably colder as we move deeper into November, but lets see. It is about trends, and it is noteworthy that the models are not suggesting a zonal stormy outlook at the time of year when westerlies reach their yearly maxim - which is notable in itself.

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