Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[northwestsnow]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i get a bit giddy at the thought of a cold foggy November!! So that update is music to my ears!!

Would really enjoy the prospect of some walks in the pennines under these conditions.

Will enjoy model watching over the next few days hoping to see a large anticyclone building in our locale.

 early Dece 1995

Perhaps something along these lines with temps probably a tad below average with a continental drift.

Edited November 3, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Polar Maritime]

Just model 'output' discusion please in here as simply requested earlier, Some posts above are more suited to the meto or Winter thread. We don't want to start deleting/moving posts..

Thanks.

Edited November 3, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Dennis]

some signs of total blocking

[Summer Sun]

Cold air and milder air battling it out later next week and into the following week

Quite a change from the 06z

[Polar Maritime]

The 12z continues to show a very disorganized growing PV into the run, With the Jet way South.

Edited November 3, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[nick sussex]

Quite large differences from early on between the GFS and UKMO. These begin at T72hrs with the handling of low pressure to the ne, the former separates this from the upstream low which allows a stronger ridge to develop to the north .

The UKMO keeps that low attached to the one to the nw of the UK and phases the systems taking them east.

Both try to retrogress the Azores high but low pressure flattens the ridge out, there is some temporary amplification shown over the ne USA and Canada at T144hrs. The UKMO being the more amplified solution.

Theres perhaps a chance of a nw flow much depends how quickly the pattern then flattens out upstream.

 

[booferking]

There is nothing stopping these lows exploding of the Eastern seaboard weak vortex jet stream are not nothing is going to stop these lows bulldozing across the Atlantic.

[blizzard81]

11 minutes ago, booferking said:

There is nothing stopping these lows exploding of the Eastern seaboard weak vortex jet stream are not nothing is going to stop these lows bulldozing across the Atlantic.

It is normally much worse than this in November. The weather has been very benign all week up here. Just like the November's I used to know. 

[blizzard81]

16 minutes ago, booferking said:

 

Edited November 3, 2017 by blizzard81

[booferking]

12 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It is normally much worse than this in November. The weather has been very benign all week up here. Just like the November's I used to know. 

Pretty much the same as last year then we near the end of Nov and the vortex takes off we are following a very similar route to last year then came Dec and we know what happen next.

High stuck to are South West.

Edited November 3, 2017 by booferking

[phil nw.]

Pretty seasonal into the next week looking at the models this evening.Just variations on the main theme of a westerly pattern with some rather cold polar maritime incursions at times.Nothing dramatic- some frosts and mountain snow in the outlook- what we can expect in a November north westerly.

This the UKMO run.

The trough angled towards C.Europe with the jet driving south east.Unfortunately the Azores high remains a little too flat and located to close to allow anything colder.We do see some amplification upstream from a sharp trough modelled over eastern N.America around days 6/7 but this isn't shown to translate downstream with the Atlantic jet looking pretty flat going into week 2 -at least on the gefs and the ECM Op

One of the typical November patterns where we always have our eyes to the north west noting the growth of the Greenland vortex.

[blizzard81]

I said this a few days ago but I love the negative tilt to the Atlantic troughs. Very akin to Nov 2009. I think this could be a direct result of the good SAI this year. It may work in our favour like it did in 2009. 

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I said this a few days ago but I love the negative tilt to the Atlantic troughs. Very akin to Nov 2009. I think this could be a direct result of the good SAI this year. It may work in our favour like it did in 2009. 

I hope your right.

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening All! So what can I say , looking at the 12z suite from ecm and gfs , a Proper Old Fashioned November ! Not to say Novembers past gave a traditional November, but models are showing short lived wet and windy spells becoming a little milder at times ,but overall colder than average with frost and fog fairly common. . If this synoptic pattern continues expect plenty of lower than average temperatures as we move into December and above average Snowfall, ....I have a sniff of 2010 this year.

[Froze were the Days]

Sorry, very tedious watching the charts presently, okay they could be worse for mild conditions but if watching Pm slots intersected with milder Tm air masses is your thing and a train of west to east weather sets your boat afloat then keep watching and analysing. 

Waiting for HP to settle over the country for the first time in yonks or even just a slight easterly, I think once we get to post +210z you'll see more of a tilt to SW/NE in the jet.

[Dennis]

anomaly weekend from mild to cool within 2days

[bluearmy]

Eps are slightly neg post mid month now on the AO joining the gefs. The gems are not, staying slightly positive. the spread fairly large still. 

[bluearmy]

Good ol Friday pub run ............

 

btw, I say it  every November  but you really should look at fi on the NH profile at this time of year to get the most fun! 

Edited November 3, 2017 by bluearmy

[oasis]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Good ol Friday pub run ............

 

btw, I say it  every November  but you really should look at fi on the NH profile at this time of year to get the most fun! 

Some of those ensembles heights over Arctic are very high. The op run a cross polar flow - crazy. Pushing those blue 850 hpa temperatures into Svalbard and around.

[Allseasons-Si]

There is some real inconsistancy in the models upto 144hrs as can be seen by the main three although the ecm and gfs are similar but the ukmo is more amplified and i would like to see if this came off

and the 18z gfs at 138 similar to it's 12z run,so will ukmo be right?

a look at the ens graph's(both for London),shows a cool down this weekend before recoving next week to average values then cooling off in the latter stages

the latter stages of the 18z produces a quiet bizzare run with a west baised -nao setup but nice to see the height's getting into the pole from both sides splitting the PV into two,obviously it won't come off

now the cfs cough! cough!,it produced a good run this morning and the 12z at 216 ,well

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&run=10

 

 

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, oasis said:

Some of those ensembles heights over Arctic are very high. The op run a cross polar flow - crazy. Pushing those blue 850 hpa temperatures into Svalbard and around.

Whilst those of us who have done this for too many years than we care to admit to would say that operationals and ens members post day 8 are not worth the 0 and 1's used to generate them, it's still fun to see charts like these produced. but then occasionally I think back to Nov '10 and recall it was a good ole pub run that first found the frigid solution and we all laughed at it .........

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst those of us who have done this for too many years than we care to admit to would say that operationals and ens members post day 8 are not worth the 0 and 1's used to generate them, it's still fun to see charts like these produced. but then occasionally I think back to Nov '10 and recall it was a good ole pub run that first found the frigid solution and we all laughed at it .........

Yes remember that,i laughed too at it thinking it wouldn't come off,and just to highlight this the gfs was showing a potent northerly i think last week or later the week before and that went pear shaped,so unless there is a strong consistancy in the models,we add that salt word,but i do see wind of a WNW/NW variety creeping in on the NWP's.

Edited November 3, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[ITSY]

If you lk at the postage stamps, the NH atmospheric profile is amazingly "open" in FI - blocking galore. Just like last night. Worth an eye for trends - the postages better capture the synoptic pattern than mean temps, whether mild or cold. 

[feb1991blizzard]

33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst those of us who have done this for too many years than we care to admit to would say that operationals and ens members post day 8 are not worth the 0 and 1's used to generate them, it's still fun to see charts like these produced. but then occasionally I think back to Nov '10 and recall it was a good ole pub run that first found the frigid solution and we all laughed at it .........

These jog your memory? mind you it was already well signposted in 30 dayer by this stage.

Edited November 4, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[blizzard81]

Ooooh! A prolonged version of Dec 10 would be my dream.